Israel’s war on Iran

[Purple]

just because we’re not a belligerent nation does that mean our role is in any way insufficient or useless.

That's exactly what it means, not because we are not a belligerent nation but because we are incapable of becoming one.

We are hurlers on the ditch. In fact we're on a ditch a couple of fields away from the game and we don't even have a hurley. We are casually listened to by other people on the same ditch who also don't have hurleys.

We're the small dog barking from inside the house while a pack of wolves are fighting on the street.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Yes, Iran has been in breach of its non-proliferation responsibilities, particularly regarding its IAEA safeguards obligations under the NPT. Whether these breaches constitute violations of the NPT itself is a more complex legal question, but the IAEA and UN Security Council have clearly found Iran to be non-compliant at multiple stages.

Iran now complains that the US is breaking international law. Iran does not give a fiddlers about international law. It thought that the West wouldn't dare take the action that they finally have. Like Saddam before the Ayatollah they thought the inevitability of WWIII would deter any such action.

 

[Purple]

Iran has a long history of supporting terrorism in other countries. It is a fundamentalist State which oppresses its own people.
That in itself doesn't make what the US and Israel have done right, helpful or effective. Time will tell on the latter two, the first is a matter of subjectivity.

If there's a country in the Middle East which you regard as the "good guys" then you are either very ill informed or have a badly broken moral compass.

 

[Purple]

The title of this thread is "Israels war on Iran". Considering the facts and history between the two States that's a rather strange way of phrasing what's going on. Given Iran's support for Hamas and Hezbollah it could just as easily be called "Iran's war on Israel".

 

[Purple]

It looks like Trump has forces the two sides into a ceasefire. When I say two sides I mean Israel as the Iranians have no meaningful ability to attack Israel so a ceasefire suits them.

 

[Sophrosyne]

Has Trump crowed too soon?

“Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say”

 

[odyssey06]

This all comes back to Trump pulling out of the deal with Iran in his first term which was closely monitoring the Iranian nuclear research.
Now the indications are that Trump going down the military route had only limited effect.
Worst of both worlds.

 

[Purple]

This all comes back to Trump pulling out of the deal with Iran in his first term which was closely monitoring the Iranian nuclear research.
Now the indications are that Trump going down the military route had only limited effect.
Worst of both worlds.

The degradation of Iran's military capability will cause significant political pressure within Iran. There is a strong grass roots movement for reform and liberalisation, although there is no political opposition to harness it. It's interesting that the new head of the armed forces is a moderate and not from the Revolutionary Guard. It wouldn't take much for a reformist movement to coalesce around someone like him so that while the Party doesn't change in name of structure it changes in intent and application.

Khamenei's been in power since 1989 and is an old man with no appointed successor. This war might hasten reform, though where that ends up is very hard to say.

 

[odyssey06]

This war might hasten reform, though where that ends up is very hard to say.

We'll have to see how it plays out over months and years. It would be good if this led to reform \ progress in Iran but it is hard to be optimistic.

 

[odyssey06]

Trump, after conducting a bombing of dubious effectiveness, is now talking about $30 billion for Iran and easing sanctions... to get Iran back to the negotiating table on its nuclear programme. All of this the US already had under the Obama deal, which Trump withdrew from in his first term.

 

[Purple]

All of this the US already had under the Obama deal, which Trump withdrew from in his first term.

But that deal wasn't beautiful.

 

[TRS30]

Lets see the MAGA crowd spin this one after slating Obama for giving them money!

 

[Salvadore]

Trump, after conducting a bombing of dubious effectiveness, is now talking about $30 billion for Iran and easing sanctions... to get Iran back to the negotiating table on its nuclear programme. All of this the US already had under the Obama deal, which Trump withdrew from in his first term.

It’s geopolitics for slow learners.

 

[Firefly]

Fascinating, paywalled article detailing the recent attackes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-iran-attack-operation-narnia-a2c38ace?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

[joe sod]

This all comes back to Trump pulling out of the deal with Iran in his first term which was closely monitoring the Iranian nuclear research.
Now the indications are that Trump going down the military route had only limited effect.
Worst of both worlds.

It's hard to say really, if the ceasefire holds and the war in gaza is finally stopped then it will be viewed as a success in trump eyes anyway.
One thing is that the whole thing seems to have been contained, the Iranians don't look like closing strait of hormuz and the other Arab states aren't gunning for Israel and the US which is extraordinary.
Also from trump view point made his nickname TACO lose its punch because he actually did carry it out despite the doubts.
Also another unintended benefit is it displayed the power of the US weapons to the autocrats like Putin. I think the Russians are now very uncomfortable about these new developments. And now trump brimming with confidence seems to be having a go at putin about needing to sort out Russia.
I'm not a fan of trump or Netanyahu but I think this development is very good for Ukraine and Europe

 

[Purple]

the other Arab states aren't gunning for Israel and the US which is extraordinary.

Iran isn't an Arab state. They are Persian. Iran means land of the Aryans.
They are also 90-95% Shia, which puts them at odds with most of the Arab States in the region.

 

[Sister Sara]

Outside of Israel, Iran also has the second largest Jewish population who are free to practice their religion peacefully and free from anti-semitism.

The "Death to America" and "wipe Israel off the face of the earth" and nothing more than calling cards to rabble-rouse the base. The reality is that Iran suspended its nuclear weapon program from 2003 and as recent as March 2025 US Intelligence claimed that Iran did not have a nuclear weapons program.
You could say the same about "No return to Stormont" and "not a bullet, not an ounce" about IRA leadership positions to its base while simultaneously engaging in direct talks with British officials that would see a return to Stormont and decommissioning of weapons.

From the outside looking in, my instinct from listening to Iranian leaders is that they are more than prepared to accept 2 state solution and return to cordial relations with Isreal and US. It's not without condition of course, the Palestinian state needs to be established, Lebanon needs to be free from Isreali attack and invasion and Iran's own security needs to assured.

I'm in no doubt the most dangerous and destabilising regime in the Mid East is the rogue genocidal Israeli regime. They launched their attacks on Iran at a time when diplomatic efforts for a peaceful resolution were very promising. They have upended Western influence and interests in the region by routinely ignoring international law and using intimidatory tactics against its "allies".
And the West response has been derisory and without sanction, barely a reprimand, pure unaccountability for its terrorist crimes in Palestine.

 

[Purple]

Outside of Israel, Iran also has the second largest Jewish population who are free to practice their religion peacefully and free from anti-semitism.

There are more in Turkey and they are freer to practice their religion. In 1948 there were nearly a million Jews in Arab countries. Now there are around 10,000.

The "Death to America" and "wipe Israel off the face of the earth" and nothing more than calling cards to rabble-rouse the base.

No, it’s a foundational principle of their theocratic state.

The reality is that Iran suspended its nuclear weapon program from 2003 and as recent as March 2025 US Intelligence claimed that Iran did not have a nuclear weapons program.

I agree, but they did have highly enriched uranium so that wasn’t for a civilian nuclear program.

You could say the same about "No return to Stormont" and "not a bullet, not an ounce" about IRA leadership positions to its base while simultaneously engaging in direct talks with British officials that would see a return to Stormont and decommissioning of weapons.

Except the IRA weren’t running the country (though they might be soon if enough useful idiots vote for them).

From the outside looking in, my instinct from listening to Iranian leaders is that they are more than prepared to accept 2 state solution and return to cordial relations with Isreal and US. It's not without condition of course, the Palestinian state needs to be established, Lebanon needs to be free from Isreali attack and invasion and Iran's own security needs to assured.

Iran, like every other Islamic country in the region, couldn’t care less about the Palestinians. They have absolutely no interest in their welfare. The Palestinians are nothing more than an excuse to attack Israel.

I'm in no doubt the most dangerous and destabilising regime in the Mid East is the rogue genocidal Israeli regime.

Really? So Irans proxy war with Saudi Arabia in Yemen which has so far killed over 300,000 people, around 100,000 of them children, isn’t as bad or worse? What about the UAE’s proxy war in Sudan which has killed hundreds of thousands and will almost certainly kill millions? That’s of far greater geopolitical significance than either the Israel Gaza war or the Iran Israel conflict.

They launched their attacks on Iran at a time when diplomatic efforts for a peaceful resolution were very promising.

Yep, and the best they will do it a return to the Obama deal which was in place 10 years ago.

They have upended Western influence and interests in the region by routinely ignoring international law and using intimidatory tactics against its "allies".

They’ve probably strengthened Western influence in the region by strengthening their allied Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Both countries hate Iran and neither care about the Palestinians. In fact the Jordanians expelled the Palestinians decades ago after they supported an attempted Coup.

And the West response has been derisory and without sanction, barely a reprimand, pure unaccountability for its terrorist crimes in Palestine.

Yep, as has its response to Saudi and UAE genocides in Yemen and Sudan respectively. That’s real-politics for you. General DeGaul said that countries don’t have allies, they have interests.

 

[Sister Sara]

In 1948 there were nearly a million Jews in Arab countries.

I wasn't talking about Arab countries, I was talking about Iran which is a Persian country.

No, it’s a foundational principle of their theocratic state.

I'm not doubting it, but so is 'No Surrender', 'Tiocfaidh ár lá' etc....but in the real politik of the world, diplomatic relations tend to involve more complex and intricate relations based on reality. I do not believe that Iranian diplomats would seek negotiation with US or Israeli counterparts with the rabble rousing rhetoric?
Just my opinion.

I agree, but they did have highly enriched uranium so that wasn’t for a civilian nuclear program.

True, but to my knowledge, it was highly enriched after Trump tore up the previous agreement. As you mention later, countries have interests - from an Iranian perspective, after what Trump did, I'd imagine it was now in their interest to develop capability of obtaining a nuclear weapon. They were however nowhere close to do so contrary to psycho-babble of the deranged Netanyahu for the last 30yrs or so.

Really?

Yes really. Notwithstanding the other horrendous conflicts you have mentioned, none of them have come close to attacking nuclear facilities and the devastating impact that may occur from radiation leakage. International law and an international order is, to my mind, on the floor when Western allies (US, EU, UK) will rightly impose sanction against Russia and other warring tribes and states but effectively ignore the continued occupation, apartheid and genocidal attempt of the Israeli regime.

Yep, as has its response to Saudi and UAE genocides in Yemen and Sudan respectively

Agreed.

 

[odyssey06]

Iran has the capacity to start enriching uranium again - for a possible bomb - in "a matter of months", the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog has said. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said the US strikes on three Iranian sites last weekend had caused severe but "not total" damage, contradicting Donald Trump's claim that Iran's nuclear facilities were "totally obliterated".
"Frankly speaking, one cannot claim that everything has disappeared and there is nothing there," Grossi said on Saturday.

Iran could start enriching uranium for bomb within months, UN nuclear chief says

Rafael Grossi's claim contradicts President Trump, who insists Iran's nuclear capabilities have been "totally obliterated".

www.bbc.com