I've just realised where I'm probably going wrong here, you're not seeing any utility in the bitcoin network at all.
If Bitcoin was worth $1 each in 2011, why are they worth $12,000 each now?
- Thread starter Brendan Burgess
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I've just realised where I'm probably going wrong here, you're not seeing any utility in the bitcoin network at all.
Brendan Burgess
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I am seeing utility. On rare occasions you can exchange it for real goods. But that is only because of the existence of greater fools.
When the system runs out of fools, there won't be any value or utility.
Brendan
When the system runs out of fools, there won't be any value or utility.
Brendan
A more valid comparison than tulip plc would be to gold or fiat currency.
Your arguement above is exactly my thoughts on any currency. They have no value other than the expectation that someone will give you goods and services in exchange for them. How much goods and services? No one can say because the value changes daily, usually a bit less. We just call these changes in value inflation or deflation. Look at the example of the euro 1 cent coin. It costs more to make than its face value. In a rational market, should I not be able to sell one for more than €0.01? (Assuming it is the value of the metal that makes the cost >€0.01).
Brendan Burgess
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The cost of making something is far more than the metal. If the scrap value was more than 1 cent, they would be collected and scrapped.
The comparison with gold has been well and truly debunked in this thread
Bitcoin is not like gold
Can you transfer that envelope across borders, near instantly, without permission?
Is it counterfeit - proof?
Can you store it in your head, on a mnemonic phrase? Divide it up to 100 million times, transfer it, put some back together and store it?
The questions can go on and on.
It is a pity we cant find something to accurately compare it to, but the brown envelope analogy is just not even close.
TheBigShort
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Aside from the fact that if there were actually persuasive people who could sell brown envelopes for €€€ then that is exactly what they would be doing.
But there aren't, so it is not happening.
But there aren't, so it is not happening.
Brendan Burgess
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The brown envelope is not perfect, but it's the closest so far.
It's worthless.
The price depends on being able to find a Greater Fool
At some stage, someone would open the envelope and find that there is nothing in it, and then it would collapse completely.
Brendan
It's worthless.
The price depends on being able to find a Greater Fool
At some stage, someone would open the envelope and find that there is nothing in it, and then it would collapse completely.
Brendan
I do not think there is any convincing you Brendan to even be open to the possibility that you are not right.
You have little to none understanding of bitcoin, blockchain, the network, but you are absolutely certain it is worthless.
I am saying the brown envelope analogy is not even close and you are saying it is the closest so far, thus making it more accurate than comparing it with gold, fiat currencies.
How a brown envelope looks anything like bitcoin is beyond me.
Lets just agree to disagree.
You have little to none understanding of bitcoin, blockchain, the network, but you are absolutely certain it is worthless.
I am saying the brown envelope analogy is not even close and you are saying it is the closest so far, thus making it more accurate than comparing it with gold, fiat currencies.
How a brown envelope looks anything like bitcoin is beyond me.
Lets just agree to disagree.
Brendan Burgess
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We can of course disagree, but you are facing huge losses by buying or holding on to Bitcoins. You need to be open to the fact that you are in a huge bubble. There have been loads of them before. The participants always deny that they are in a bubble and claim that the sceptics don't understand it - tulips, the South Sea, dot com, bitcoin.
Bitcoin will burst. And in another 10 to 15 years we will have the same discussion under a different brand name.
Brendan
TheBigShort
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With respect Brendan, you may or may not be correct in saying that bitcoin is a bubble, you may be correct in saying it is worthless. But from my perspective there is an ample amount of evidence, supported by people who are educated in technology, to suggest that bitcoin does hold some value.
What the true value is, is anybody's guess. But to equate bitcoin with brown envelopes is to dismiss the considered views of those who are informed in the area, to the point I would add, that they are nothing more than cheerleaders for a fraudulent ponzi scheme.
Duke of Marmalade
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That link is pure fanaticism. I personally believe in government or at least in our Wesrern democracy style versions. I see no merit in the fact that BTC subverts government control.
I could pick holes in that long tirade almost line by line but I will restrict myself to only a few. Consider the following quote.
“Bitcoin is thus the only currency and money system in the world which has no counter-party risk to hold and to transfer. This is absolutely revolutionary and you should read the preceding sentence again.”
Ok, read it again. (a) possibly this was true at time of writing but today there are around a thousand such “currencies” (b). So I have a number on my iPhone which has no counter party risk, so what.
He then quotes Paul Krugman Nobel Laureate and subscriber to the Burgess “no value” school. PK is immediately dismissed by referencing other “wiser/real” economists. There may indeed be wiser economists than PK but I don’t think there is anything unreal or virtual about him.
It cautions against investing in BTC with the warning that its price could fall to zero tomorrow. Hmmm
Once again this is confusing the technology with the product, what you are describing is blockchain which might and could have future value
The product bitcoin isn't cemented to the success of the technology.
As an investor if you can't with good reason explain the huge leaps in value and then the large drops followed by bigger leaps i stay well away, but that is simply a personal philosophy.
Blockchain by its own, is a fancy word for a database, a spreadsheet.
Bitcoin's blockchain is decentralised, there is no leader, no need for an authority.
The computing power behind it, the miners, the cumulative electricity cost, make it secure and immutable. They make your transactions safe and uncensored.
The huge leaps in are an increase in demand combined with a limited supply. More people want some, and there aren't enough sellers.
Deep pocket traders (in comparison with the current market cap) can cause big moves for their personal profit.
Exchanges that are not well regulated can flood their own books and manipulate the price, and arbitrage traders will just carry on the effect across all other exchanges.
I know I not doing a very good job explaining it, there are others that understand it better and have the language skills to pass the understanding along.
+1
Brendan For someone who has always argued so intelligently and coherently on other topics I am shocked at the level of inflexibility you are showing on this subject.
However those bitcoin believers like myself have acknowledged most of the technical deficiencies, are open to much of the criticism and have generally accepted that it’s value may be significantly less than its current price.
I apologise if this is going too far but I get the feeling that with such a hardlined approach you have become emotionally involved in this and rather than genuine concern for those who may loose money you are wishing for it to fall to zero, if only to say.....
“I told you so” !!!!
Brendan Burgess
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Hi landlord
You and I can have a different view on the price of housing in Ireland. I may express a view that based on interest rates, the growth of the economy and the lack of supply, that house prices will rise by x%. You may consider that we are in a bubble and that house prices will fall by y%. In truth, neither of us know. You might get to say "I told you so." or, I may get to say it.
But I am telling you now - as many others are - Bitcoin is worthless. This is not an opinion. This is a fact. It's like telling the few Dutch people that their tulips weren't worth multiples of their salaries or like telling the women involved in "Women empowering women", that they were destined to lose all their money.
You have faith in something. It's like the blind faith people have in Gods or creationism or whatever. It's fundamentalism. There is no logical basis for it. I am not emotionally involved. I do feel sorry for those of you who will lose money, or who will lose profits you could have made by holding onto blind faith.
Brendan
You and I can have a different view on the price of housing in Ireland. I may express a view that based on interest rates, the growth of the economy and the lack of supply, that house prices will rise by x%. You may consider that we are in a bubble and that house prices will fall by y%. In truth, neither of us know. You might get to say "I told you so." or, I may get to say it.
But I am telling you now - as many others are - Bitcoin is worthless. This is not an opinion. This is a fact. It's like telling the few Dutch people that their tulips weren't worth multiples of their salaries or like telling the women involved in "Women empowering women", that they were destined to lose all their money.
You have faith in something. It's like the blind faith people have in Gods or creationism or whatever. It's fundamentalism. There is no logical basis for it. I am not emotionally involved. I do feel sorry for those of you who will lose money, or who will lose profits you could have made by holding onto blind faith.
Brendan
One could easily say that about us having faith that the Federal Reserve, the ECB etc know what they are doing and have not already ruined the world economy with their choices. We do not really know what they are doing do we? We have a blind faith that it works out okay. When has it ever worked out okay in the past? Where is the logical basis for it, I cannot see.
In bitcoin however at least he have logic on how the code works. We have math on the security of the cryptography and the volume of the hashing power. Everything is open source, all the information is out there for those who want to learn it, check it, understand it or whatever, there are no secrets. You can review the code, download a client, run a node and check verify everything since the genesis block.
There is no ponzi scheme, bitcoin doesn't owe you anything and it makes no promises. No one at the top earning dividends, no referral bonus.
Bitcoin will not deteriorate like a tulip bulb.
I am open minded, sure it could all fail for reasons I do not understand.
I can't force anyone to buy my bitcoin if they don't want it... If no-one wants it im stuck with it and that's okay. I got some for diversification I am not hoping to be rich out of it, rather maintain my wealth if my bank account and pension fund just go 'poof' one day.
Duke of Marmalade
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I would say that is true of 95% of BTC holders. However, most people including me (and the Boss I presume) are prepared to accept that BTC does what it says on the tin (as do hundreds of copycat cryptos).
Thus we accept that it is decentralised, that it is secure, that it is anonymous, that it can be transferred easily, that it has artificial scarcity, that it is based on very clever technology etc. etc. But we also know what in the final analysis it is. It is a number or numbers in our iPhone having no meaning or value other than that they are numbers which enjoy the above mentioned attributes.
Now my research has not unearthed anyone that I could respect who defends BTC (rumours that Bill Gates is a huge fan are greatly exaggerated). On the contrary there is an overwhelming academic and professional consensus that it is a massive bubble. Its defenders seem to have embraced a cult and are very defensive as we have seen in this very forum and as is typified by commentary that asserts that critics like Paul Krugman are not "real" economists. The only explanation that I can think of is that those at the core of the cult are hugely impressed by the technology and feel that it must have some value on that score.
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Brendan Burgess
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But also Shortie's paranoia about the way world governments are plotting to destroy the world. (Apologies to Shortie for that summary of his views, but you know what I mean.)
The only people I know personally who have bought Bitcoin are the same people who camped outside the Central Bank. It gives them a warm feeling of being an anarchist.
Brendan
A genuine question for the Bitcoin bashers....
Do you guys believe that Bitcoin was designed as a pyramid scheme/scam, or do you believe that it evolved into one?
Do you believe that Satoshi Nakamoto deliberately set out to deceive others?
Just curious....
Do you guys believe that Bitcoin was designed as a pyramid scheme/scam, or do you believe that it evolved into one?
Do you believe that Satoshi Nakamoto deliberately set out to deceive others?
Just curious....