I have been looking at this myself, trying to understand where the value is between panels and battery. I have installation planned for a 10kwh battery but am paying about €3k for that.
Some thought:
Things are very different if you use electricity for cooking and heating vs if you don't, if you do seasonal difference is huge for electricity usage and the opposite of solar gen. obviously.
I looked at adding a second battery but the return is not as good as the first as it would only be needed for offsetting for a few months.
The modelling completely changes if the FIT rate drops, currently it's almost two different systems most for half the year. Export solar and offset using battery to run the house. In fact if you used no electricity you could buy low and sell it back high, not sure on the business case on that.
There are other limitations sure as charge rate so if you go too big with a battery you cant charge in a two hour cheap window.
Kilowatt.ie has a pretty good modelling tool where you can upload your ESB data and show savings across all plans not just the one you are on. The best plan before solar/battery is unlikely to be the best after. In my option you have to compare the best plan for each setup to understand the value, some are more focused on solar panels than battery offset.
Pinergy seem to come up tops for me, thats due to them having the best FIT. Although they even recommend you switch plan (and pay the exit fee) between summer and winter. Get a high selling price in summer and cheaper buying price in winter.
Some scenarios I looked at via kilowatt
The savings are against my current plan, about 4 months ago, pre solar obv. but with a night time charge window for EV.
Scenario 1
16 panels, 10kwh battery (8 usable)
Save: €2,832 Pinergy
Scenario 2
16 panels, 20kwh battery (16 usable)
Save: €2,883 Pinergy
Scenario 3
16 panels, no battery
Save: €1,782 Pinergy
Scenario 4
no panels, 10kwh battery (8 usable)
Save: €503 Flogas
Scenario 5
no panels, 20kwh battery (16 usable)
Save: €550 Flogas
Panels saving: €2,300 / year
10kwh battery saving: €1,050 / year
But you cant add both together as different companies and plans.
Ratio both down in proportion with the €2,883 saving means multiplying each by .86.
My costs are about:
Panels €8.5k
10kwh battery: €3k
Payback:
Panels: 4.3 years
Battery: 3.3 years
I am not fully convinced the tool is using the battery fill / sell back to it most. But running full cycles like that does impact the battery life I believe.
Comparing it to an investment I think the Internal Rate of Return would be about 18% (I leaned on ChatGPT to run the calc and include depreciation). I believe thats the best metric to see if it is a good investment.
I must save this for a years time to see real word numbers.