Future price of Irish properties

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about a day or two late there mate! have you been readin this thread or what?
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I think what the poster was doing was pointing out how Brendan Keenan the business editor of the Indo had thoroughly endorsed the report.
 
i wonder if a lot of FTB's are/have entered the market earlier than they would normally do as "i wont be able to afford it if i wait" ,so buying at 26 rather than at 30,in UK the average age of a FTB is 33 ,i'd say its far lower in ireland.
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My own anecdotal evidence suggests definitely. Almost all my younger colleagues are buying/obsessed with buying (mid 20's onwards), which is fair enough, but, personally I think it's a bit lifestyle restricting - but it is a lifstyle choice, and it's their choice.
It's a fairly difficult position that FTB's are in, all they see are prices going up and up, so they make a judgement call, that they've got to get on the ladder asap.
Obviously, when i was that age (6/7 yrs ago), the banks would have laughed me back out of the bank, 2.5 times your salary and probably a 15% deposit, not to mention fees!!
 
Glenbhoy said:
My own anecdotal evidence suggests definitely. Almost all my younger colleagues are buying/obsessed with buying (mid 20's onwards), which is fair enough, but, personally I think it's a bit lifestyle restricting - but it is a lifstyle choice, and it's their choice.
It's a fairly difficult position that FTB's are in, all they see are prices going up and up, so they make a judgement call, that they've got to get on the ladder asap.
Obviously, when i was that age (6/7 yrs ago), the banks would have laughed me back out of the bank, 2.5 times your salary and probably a 15% deposit, not to mention fees!!
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I think this is a good point. Bullish property analysts always point to the positive demographics & inward flow of immigrants. Daft.ie seems to be crediting the sustaining of rent levels to the inflow of eastern europeans. If they were to return or start going to other countries instead (e.g. a recovering Germany), rents would drop. With low enough rents, the mid 20s buyers we have now would sit it out until their 30s before buying, even if the market was declining, causing a shift back in the house buying demographic.

When it comes to property prices I believe 2 things apply:
- supply & demand, with the FTB being the foundation of the demand "ladder"
- location. We talk in general terms about prices going up & down, but some areas & property types will benefit or suffer more for given events than others.
 
Worth watching what’s happening in the States. The Florida market has seen a lot of buying by investors over the past three years. In Ireland it seems impossible to get any meaningful data on market composition and performance. I think that the large investment market in Ireland will add considerably to volatility when the market turns.

Yields are not supporting current investments, however capital growth is presently compensating for the income shortfall. What happens when prices stop rising? My guess is a steady rise in inventory as investors seek to lock in any capital gain before the pain of holding costs bite to deeply. It’s interesting to note the mass of unsold inventory in the Spanish Costas, and the fall in prices there over the past year.

Florida Year on Year Sales Declines Feb 2005 to Feb 2006

Houses Condos
-24%, -50%..Daytona Beach
-25%, -27%..Fort Lauderdale
-9%, -44%..Fort Myers-Cape Coral
+6%, -38%..Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie
-21%, -48%..Fort Walton Beach
-6%, +35%..Gainesville
-1%, na….Jacksonville
-11%, -38%..Lakeland-Winter Haven
-36%, -64%..Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay
-21%, -20%..Miami
-47%, -50%..Naples
-3%, na….Ocala
-16%, +95%..Orlando
-32%, -56%..Panama City
-20%, +8%..Pensacola
-16%, - 90%..Punta Gorda
-42%, -44%..Sarasota-Bradenton
+11%, -35%..Tallahassee
-29%, -10%..Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater
-22%, -14%..West Palm Beach-Boca Raton






http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060323/flth001.html?.v=52
 
I'm witnessing the mess unfolding in Florida first hand. There are alot of similarities to the Ireland market as most of the investors have been investors/speculators hoping to make a quick buck. It could be a long painful ride to the bottom here. Interest rates are only climbing higher and foreclosures are on the rise. The point I want to make is that things can turn very quickly. Only a few months ago, people were sleeping in lines to get in on the next pre-construction project.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/content/business/epaper/2006/03/24/a1c_homesales_0324.html


Here's a great bubble blog for anyone intrested.

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/
 
If it does go Japanese, I don't think history will be kind to the government or Ahern, and people will remember "developers in the FF tent at the Galway races"
 
owenm said:
If it does go Japanese, I don't think history will be kind to the government or Ahern, and people will remember "developers in the FF tent at the Galway races"
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All together now....

I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
Turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so
 
owenm said:
If it does go Japanese, I don't think history will be kind to the government or Ahern, and people will remember "developers in the FF tent at the Galway races"
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And so it shouldn't be,they've as much to answer for as the banks lax lending policy's have.
 
thewatcher said:
And so it shouldn't be,they've as much to answer for as the banks lax lending policy's have.
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thing is they know they f00ked it up but are afriad to do anything now as a)election is near and b)any correction would be/will be horrendous and would be blamed on governemtn,if anything happens after next election they reckon they will get away with blaming all the banks and other property related industries.
 
It's like trying to stop a bunch of Lemmings from jumping off the cliff. Just let them jump.
 
bearishbull said:
[broken link removed]
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I'm surprised that made it through uncut,in fairness to her she couldn't have made it any clearer !.
 
CCOVICH said:
Note our on posting links.

The post without some form of commentary or opinion may be deleted.
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i assumed people who read this thread would have at this point have known my opinion on the issue but if not then i reitterate that i beleive prices are highly overvalued and this article is a further sign of the increasingly bearish snetiment in the media.
 
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