EV Vs ICE Issues: Range

[losttheplot]

Excellent post. You sum up the main issues at the moment with EVs - range and price. Like you, I would love if these didn't exist, but they do, and no amount of pooh-poohing from the EV zealots will change that. What will change it is:
1. when EVs drop in price to ICE levels and below
2. when range increases to a reliable 500km or so and you don't need an app to plan a journey.
These things should happen in the next 5 years or so. When they do, EVs will become a no-brainer. Just like LED lightbulbs have seen off CFLs and incandescent. Until then, it is very hard to make the economics work, yet alone accept the hassle and grief of frequent and problematic recharging.

Or you could say he summed up the issues with 'entrenched psychological traits' rather than EVs.

 

[galwegian44]

I'm not so sure about the EV prices dropping to the current ICE level as the car manufacturers have realised during the pandemic that chasing volume is not the best strategic goal of the business. VW have stated that they will not look to volume sales any more or strive to be the highest volume seller, but will rely on selling premium models with a higher margin. I see other car marques going down this route also, especially in an environment where materials are getting scarcer because of the geopoltiical situation (metal commodities) and the worldwide scarcity of semi-conductors, not to mention that supply chains have not recovered.

For anyone who listens to David McWilliams, on his recent podcasts on energy he states that diesel supply is in a more critical state than anyone is acknowledging, going so far as to say that the European governments are purposely not informing us as they don't want to cause a buying spree. His expectation is that we will run out of reserves in the summer and there will be an ensuing crash as transport fails and supply chains grind to a halt. Something to consider.

So today, I'm of the mindset that my next purchase will be an EV

 

[Baby boomer]

Or you could say he summed up the issues with 'entrenched psychological traits' rather than EVs.

Hmmm. I like getting good value for money and I like products that are flexible, versatile and meet all my needs. If that be your idea of "entrenched psychological traits" then I will happily plead guilty as charged.

On the other hand, my idea of "entrenched psychological traits" would include a stubborn refusal to realise that paying a 50% price premium for a product with restricted functionality might not really be a good idea. I think the appropriate psychological term is denial.

 

[losttheplot]

Hmmm. I like getting good value for money and I like products that are flexible, versatile and meet all my needs. If that be your idea of "entrenched psychological traits" then I will happily plead guilty as charged.

On the other hand, my idea of "entrenched psychological traits" would include a stubborn refusal to realise that paying a 50% price premium for a product with restricted functionality might not really be a good idea. I think the appropriate psychological term is denial.

I think it all has to be looked at case by case. If an EV doesn't meet your needs then it doesn't.
There are some people who's needs it would meet but they're put off by the hype about range etc.

 

[Baby boomer]

I think it all has to be looked at case by case. If an EV doesn't meet your needs then it doesn't.
There are some people who's needs it would meet but they're put off by the hype about range etc.

It's hardly "hype" if it's a real issue. The price premium is a fact. Limited range is a fact. Sure, there are people who rarely if ever venture beyond their EV's range, and for those it's ideal. Their fuel cost savings may even cancel out the EV price premium in certain circumstances. If you have, say, a 150km daily commute, then you're hitting the EV sweet spot in terms of maximizing fuel savings. If your mileage is very low, then the cost savings won't compensate you for the increased capital cost, and likely enhanced depreciation as EV technology improves in capacity and drops in price. And if you regularly exceed the EV range, well, you've got all the problems of finding working charge points and the lack of flexibility and time penalties that go with the current generation of EVs.

I'm just applying standard askaboutmoney principles of cost benefit analysis before committing to a large capital cost! Ignoring this because of a desire for sustainability or whatever may well induce a warm virtuous glow but, don't kid yourself, it'll be a hell of an expensive glow!

 

[Blackrock1]

Fair point. I think I'm subject to a lot of behavioral psychology habits also which is setting the bar too high for what's available right now in the EV market, I believe in time it will be a no-brainer to switch to an EV.

But for now, my entrenched psychological traits are saying that my driving enjoyment will be diminished in a EV because:

1) I cannot find a comparable EV to replace my diesel Mazda 6 (comparable in price, driving enjoyment and feel good factor)
2) I'm reluctant to changing my driving style to plan my longer journeys, even if they only make up 5-10% of my trips
3) For those 5-10% of trips, I shudder at the thought of queuing for x minutes to sit and charge for 1 - 2 hours

It may not sound like it but I really want to buy an EV, I just want it on my terms. I'm at that stage where I'm thinking of downsizing the house and just realised that the smaller terrace houses and apartments that we've talked about are not suitable for home charging. So many aspects to be aware of to ensure the best decision. It's great to have this discussion with like-minded and non-like-minded (?) people, thanks Askaboutmoney.

I have never queued at a charger and the fast charge takes 30-45 min depending on how much you need, so your fear is a little misplaced.

As for finding an ev that compares to your Mazda 6 price might be an issue but enjoyment performance and feel good factor won’t be an issue in comparison to a diesel.

 

[Blackrock1]

It's hardly "hype" if it's a real issue. The price premium is a fact. Limited range is a fact. Sure, there are people who rarely if ever venture beyond their EV's range, and for those it's ideal. Their fuel cost savings may even cancel out the EV price premium in certain circumstances. If you have, say, a 150km daily commute, then you're hitting the EV sweet spot in terms of maximizing fuel savings. If your mileage is very low, then the cost savings won't compensate you for the increased capital cost, and likely enhanced depreciation as EV technology improves in capacity and drops in price. And if you regularly exceed the EV range, well, you've got all the problems of finding working charge points and the lack of flexibility and time penalties that go with the current generation of EVs.

I'm just applying standard askaboutmoney principles of cost benefit analysis before committing to a large capital cost! Ignoring this because of a desire for sustainability or whatever may well induce a warm virtuous glow but, don't kid yourself, it'll be a hell of an expensive glow!

If you are buying a new car it’s expensive, a new ev will cost less over its life than the equivalent new ice in a lot of cases.

 

[Blackrock1]

Oh and someone with real world experience who challenges your misconceptions isn’t a zealot.

 

[Baby boomer]

If you are buying a new car it’s expensive, a new ev will cost less over its life than the equivalent new ice in a lot of cases.

I'm all ears! Do you have a reference for that? I've seen lots of ads/publicity blurbs for EVs that major on vague concepts like sustainability, environmental friendliness and nice design. Know what I haven't seen? A detailed side by side comparison of all costs over a vehicle's lifespan. And such comparisons as I have seen tend to ignore the time value of money by equating increased capital cost today with reduced running costs in later years, and forgetting to include the cost of capital - either real cost or opportunity cost.

Oh and someone with real world experience who challenges your misconceptions isn’t a zealot.

No, but someone who insists that range anxiety is an illusion is exhibiting zealot like tendencies! I'll believe that range anxiety is over when EV owners stop swapping tips and stories about how to plan their journeys around charging points.

 

[galwegian44]

I have never queued at a charger and the fast charge takes 30-45 min depending on how much you need, so your fear is a little misplaced.

As for finding an ev that compares to your Mazda 6 price might be an issue but enjoyment performance and feel good factor won’t be an issue in comparison to a diesel.

Agreed on the enjoyment performance and feel good factor - I have no reservations there. Still have an issue with the 30-45 minutes charging time and my experience with queuing is a little different and my expectation is that the infrastructure development will lag the sales of EV's so my expectation is that this will get worse.

But I did sit in a Tesla Model 3 today, unfortunately did not drive it and I was very impressed.....but again €54k for the cheapest model with a 7 month waiting list, not even the 'fart' option bridges that gap!

 

[losttheplot]

@Baby boomer I think you've convinced us all that you're not ready for an EV yet and that's your decision and suits your needs.
I've had an EV for 3 years and it's been trouble free. I know others the same. I also know people who'd forget to put shoes on leaving the house, an EV would be a disaster for them.
The choice is down to an individual's needs.

 

[Baby boomer]

@Baby boomer I think you've convinced us all that you're not ready for an EV yet

It's more the case that EVs haven't evolved to the point where they're ready for me!

and that's your decision and suits your needs.

Fair enough. What annoys me though are the evangelicals who insist that we ALL need to go electric ASAP.

I've had an EV for 3 years and it's been trouble free.

And so it should! As any new vehicle should be.

I know others the same. I also know people who'd forget to put shoes on leaving the house, an EV would be a disaster for them.

Or for the many people who regularly make long journeys and don't fancy enforced sojourns in filling station forecourts.

The choice is down to an individual's needs.

My point exactly. When EVs meet my needs at a competitive price, happy days, I'm on board! Until then, people telling me range anxiety isn't real aren't really impressing.

 

[PGF2016]

No, but someone who insists that range anxiety is an illusion is exhibiting zealot like tendencies!

No one on this thread thinks that. As has been pointed out to you before.

What annoys me though are the evangelicals who insist that we ALL need to go electric ASAP.

Again, no one on this thread.

 

[Blackrock1]

I'm all ears! Do you have a reference for that? I've seen lots of ads/publicity blurbs for EVs that major on vague concepts like sustainability, environmental friendliness and nice design. Know what I haven't seen? A detailed side by side comparison of all costs over a vehicle's lifespan. And such comparisons as I have seen tend to ignore the time value of money by equating increased capital cost today with reduced running costs in later years, and forgetting to include the cost of capital - either real cost or opportunity cost.


No, but someone who insists that range anxiety is an illusion is exhibiting zealot like tendencies! I'll believe that range anxiety is over when EV owners stop swapping tips and stories about how to plan their journeys around charging points.

SEAI Car Comparison

Want to know the cost of running an electric car? Compare the range of electric vehicles in Ireland to see how much you can save in costs and emissions.

www.seai.ie

 

[Blackrock1]

It's more the case that EVs haven't evolved to the point where they're ready for me!


Fair enough. What annoys me though are the evangelicals who insist that we ALL need to go electric ASAP.


And so it should! As any new vehicle should be.


Or for the many people who regularly make long journeys and don't fancy enforced sojourns in filling station forecourts.


My point exactly. When EVs meet my needs at a competitive price, happy days, I'm on board! Until then, people telling me range anxiety isn't real aren't really impressing.

As an owner of an ice car you will spend far more time in a forecourt than I will.

 

[Baby boomer]

As an owner of an ice car you will spend far more time in a forecourt than I will.

That's an apples V oranges comparison! If I were the owner of an EV I would spend vastly more time in forecourts than I do now with my ICE. That's because I do a lot of long distance driving.
YMMV.

 

[losttheplot]

Imagine having your own diesel pump at home that cost about 1/4 the price of filling station diesel. Most wouldn't forget to refuel at home.

 

[Baby boomer]

SEAI Car Comparison

Want to know the cost of running an electric car? Compare the range of electric vehicles in Ireland to see how much you can save in costs and emissions.

www.seai.ie

Not exactly a sophisticated piece of work, I have to say. It makes the basic error of ignoring the time value of money, equating a Euro spent in year 1 with a Euro saved in year 10. No allowance for cost of capital at all. Assumes ALL EV charging is done at the night rate cost of 9.5c, including VAT, per kWh!
And that's just off the top of my head having had a quick look; I'm sure there are other dubious methodologies if you drill deeper. Which you can't really, because it doesn't show it's working out in any level of easily accessible detail.

Plus, of course, the SEAI's role is to encourage the use of EVs so they're not exactly unbiased assessors! I've looked at some similar UK studies and the general consensus appears to be that you have to own your EV for a LONG time before its TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) falls below that of an equivalent ICE. Consumer advocate group, Which, who are generally highly regarded for their independence, put it as follows:
"Our pricing research shows that buying an electric car doesn’t necessarily guarantee you’ll save money in the long run. Yes, you’ll pay less for fuel each year, but the high price of purchase makes that all but redundant."

Read more: https://www.which.co.uk/news/2021/0...ectric-cars-could-push-more-people-to-petrol/ - Which?

moneysupermarket.co.uk came to a similar conclusion, finding that the TCO for petrol vehicles was less than that for equivalent EVs when looked at over a six year period.


Autoexpress.co.uk put it like this: "The average total cost of buying a new electric car in 2020 and driving it for just under 14 years - the average lifespan of a car - has been calculated as £52,133. Doing the same with a petrol-powered model would cost £53,625." I'll just point out our that 14 years is a lllllloooooonnnnngggggg payback time for miniscule savings of about 2%.
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/352747/electric-cars-are-cheaper-own-petrol-cars

Obviously, UK and Irish costs are not like for like, particularly the uniquely Irish imposition of VRT, but they're not that hugely dissimilar. I would say the case for EVs having a lower TCO is unproven at best.

It would be interesting to see some detailed and robust Irish studies on TCO for EVs and ICE.

 

[Baby boomer]

Imagine having your own diesel pump at home that cost about 1/4 the price of filling station diesel. Most wouldn't forget to refuel at home.

Apparently that's quite common in certain parts of the country!!

 

[Clamball]

SEAI Car Comparison

Want to know the cost of running an electric car? Compare the range of electric vehicles in Ireland to see how much you can save in costs and emissions.

www.seai.ie

The price comparison is not very clear. I decided to pop in my hyaundi i30 versus the hyaundi Ioniq3. Comparison

It tells me the price of the EV is €40K versus €45K for the i30. But I know I purchased my i30 for €23K, 3 years ago and so I checked out my dealers website and they list the new i30 at €29K so maybe I am not comparing like with like here. There was a * next the price so I am unsure what that means.

The SEAI website says total cost of ownership is €40K for the EV and €83K for the i30. And the calculation is Price + (Annual Energy Costs + Tax + Maintenance) x lifespan) - SEAI Grant - VRT reduction

So for my i30 it would be €23K+((75x52 diesel a week) + 290Tax+400insurance+700 service and repair+NCT+Tyres) x 10 years lifespan. That gives me €23K+(5290 x 10), so €76K total over 10 years.

And for the Ioniq3 it is €40K+(227+290+400+600)x 10. That gives €40K+(1517x 10), So €55K total over 10 years. I have not added the grant or the vrt rebate because I don’t know how much they are.

So €2K saving a year to go EV for me. But maybe I have too many assumptions in my calculations, I am comparing my car cost 2.5 years ago to new today, I am not sure if I do spend €75 a week on diesel, not sure of tax costs on EV or annual repairs, service or nct, or tyres etc. But having done the calculations I would be very tempted the next time I change my car. And yes I do, long trips (cork-Dublin return tomorrow, cork -Tipperary return Tuesday) so range would worry me a bit, but €4 a week electricity cost is very good value.