Sophrosyne
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I am not confusing anything about efficacy or effectiveness.
Infected | Infection rate | ||
Unvaccinated | 100 | 100 | 100% |
Vaccinated | 100 | 3 | 3% |
Reduction % | 97% |
Infected | Infection rate | ||
Unvaccinated | 100 | 65 | 65% |
Vaccinated | 100 | 3 | 3% |
Reduction % | 62% |
With respect @Sunny, you are mistaken about the efficacy rate.
Lets take 2 trial examples, each has 200 participants, half of whom are vaccinated.
Example 1
Infected Infection rateUnvaccinated 100 100 100%Vaccinated 100 3 3%Reduction % 97%
Therefore vaccine reduced the infection rate by 97%
The efficacy formula is arrived at by dividing the reduction %, 97% by the unvaccinated rate, 100% = 97%.
So, in this case, the efficacy rate and the vaccine reduction rate are the same because all of the unvaccinated became infected.
Example 2
Infected Infection rateUnvaccinated 100 65 65%Vaccinated 100 3 3%Reduction % 62%
In this case the vaccine reduced the infection rate by 62% but the efficacy rate is higher.
The reduction rate is 62%, but the efficacy rate, (62% divided by 65%) is 95%, because it takes account of the 35 unvaccinated who did not become infected.
My understanding is that, on average, the chances of getting infected are reduced by 95%.I never said anything about not taking into account people who did not become infected. I stand over my point that people saying 95% efficacy means that 95% of the pople have protection while 5% don't is completely wrong.
A vaccinated 85 year old is less likely to pass on the virus than an un-vaccinated 29 year old though.My understanding is that, on average, the chances of getting infected are reduced by 95%.
That doesn't mean 95% of people have a zero chance of being infected and 5% have a 100% chance of being infected but Nolan's Tweets seems to suggest that.
Basically with an efficacy rate of 95% if you are vaccinated your chance of being infected is reduced 20 fold. That's my understanding of it but I'm open to correction.
Without wanting to go on about it the fact remains that someone over 85 is more than 600 times more likely to die than someone under 30. The vaccine reduced that to 600/20=30. So a fully vaccinated 85 year old is still 30 times more likely to die from Covid if they get it than an unvaccinated 29 year old.
Are they though?A vaccinated 85 year old is less likely to pass on the virus than an un-vaccinated 29 year old though.
From CDC May 27thAre they though?
Has there been studies on that?
Lower viral load for one thing:Are they though?
Has there been studies on that?
From CDC May 27th
"A growing body of evidence indicates that fully vaccinated with an mRNA vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna) are less likely to have asymptomatic infection or to transmit SARS-CoV-2 to others. Studies are underway to learn more about the benefits of Johnson & Johnson/Janssen vaccine. However, the risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection in fully vaccinated people cannot be completely eliminated as long as there is continued community transmission of the virus."
Just watching the England update and it was mentioned that the vaccines do reduce transmission but the data isn't complete enough to say anything with certainty.
They also said that there was clear evidence that the link between cases and hospitalizations has been weakened but not enough to prevent an increase in the Delta variant causing more hospitalisation and deaths but nothing on the scale seen at the start of the year.
So, its still positive news but not as positive as we might want
Yes, but is the lower viral load in vaccinated over 75's lower than the viral load in infected otherwise fit and healthy unvaccinated 20 year olds?Lower viral load for one thing:
Initial report of decreased SARS-CoV-2 viral load after inoculation with the BNT162b2 vaccine - Nature Medicine
Breakthrough infections of SARS-CoV-2 occurring 12 or more days after the first dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine were associated with lower viral loads than those found in unvaccinated individuals, suggesting that the vaccine might reduce infectiousness.www.nature.com
I haven't heard anything to suggest viral load shed was different in 75 year olds versus 20 year olds.Yes, but is the lower viral load in vaccinated over 75's lower than the viral load in infected otherwise fit and healthy unvaccinated 20 year olds?
That is what the WHO warned us about at the start of the year.Israel data reportedly shows plunge in efficacy of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine as delta variant spreads
At the same time, the decline in protection against serious cases and hospitalization is considerably milder, the Ynet news website said.fortune.com
This is being reported widely. As we discussed extensively efficacy and its importance in the vaccination program the above isn't a good new story.
But at the start of the year it wasn't 100% what a new variant might look like. Of course it was inevitable that variants would evolve.That is what the WHO warned us about at the start of the year.
It was inevitable that they would be more transmissible. The fact that so far they have not been much more deadly is both positive and surprising.But at the start of the year it wasn't 100% what a new variant might look like. Of course it was inevitable that variants would evolve.
Not one for pessimism but the Lambada variant is now making itself known outside of Peru and while its early days the WHO is again warning that this might be even more potent than everything that has been seen to date.
Don't forget the vaccines while upgradeable might struggle with any new variant for a period of time before new ones are developed.It was inevitable that they would be more transmissible. The fact that so far they have not been much more deadly is both positive and surprising.
They are worried about self isolating which is more likely now that they are more likely to be infected with Delta Covid now that mask wearing is no longer mandatory from 19th July.Why are we so concerned about the Delta Variant in the UK when the people in the UK aren't?
Wait until 19th July.everyone is very compliant in relation to masks on public transport, shops etc.
Boris and the average joe don't really understand what's happening.According to the man on the Wireless (NewsTalk) hospitalisations as a proportion of infections in the UK are down 13 fold. Why are we so concerned about the Delta Variant in the UK when the people in the UK aren't?
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