Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[hmmm]

My question here is do other posters think I would be able to sustain my 500, 000 should the bubble burst or as it will be, in my opinion, a great place to live in the coming years should I still expect some level of growth. I know this a “how long is a piece of string” type question but surely areas such as this & possibly newbridge where infrastructure is increasing along with property development, house prices should at least keep their value.

The problem is that we are (some believe) in a bubble, so whether an area is nice or has infrastructural improvements coming down the road is irrelevent, because house prices are hugely overvalued. E.g. if you have a car worth 10k and someone offers to buy it for 20k. If that other buyer adds fancy new wheels to the car which will add 1k in value to it, is it now worth 21k or 11k?

Personally I think the "I had to buy because otherwise I'd never be able to" was naive reasoning and may prove costly - sorry. If you are happy to live there for 10 years and can afford the mortgage you can ride out anything that may (or may not) happen, but I wouldn't assume that increases in your own house price will enable you to buy the bigger place.

 

[topman]

BEN 10:

Just because a few shops and a tram line will coming knocking your way by 2010 at the earliest doesnt' mean that your apartment will be still worth 500k. Thats assuming it was worth 500k when you bought it !!

 

[BigM]

I have bought an appartment in what seems to be Dublin’s new mass development area of carrickmines, paying almost 500,000 for a large 2 bed apt (900 sqft, with excellent views).

but surely areas such as this & possibly newbridge where infrastructure is increasing along with property development, house prices should at least keep their value.

Nowhere will necessarily 'keep their value'. But as far as I'm concerned, the most NB aspect of the purchase is the location. If you buy in your preferred location then you should be ok.
If prices fall a small amount, your desired trade-up property will be similarly affected and it still might be feasible for you to move in 5 years;
if prices crash and you face neg equity at least you're living in your preferred area;
if prices keep rising at least your current property keeps pace (in % terms) with your desired property - you just have to hope your wage inflation makes up the difference!

As for Newbridge - isn't that where everyone is up in arms about the lack of schools?

 

[CelloPoint]

Hi

Just thought i'd throw my two cent in (well, if i had 2 cent after buying my first home). I have bought an appartment in what seems to be Dublin’s new mass development area of carrickmines, paying almost 500,000 for a large 2 bed apt (900 sqft, with excellent views). With limited knowledge of the housing market I bought this in the first quarter of this year as prices were still rising & I was of the opinion that I better buy now before prices go up any further.
Now, being an apt, I plan upgrading to a larger house within 5 years & hoped by buying in this area would supplement the extra finance needed for the upgrade. Since buying, the luas has been confirmed for 2010, superquinn, dunnes & other stores have decided to open in the area and there seem as to be many other projects (eg 5 star hotel, bars, crèches) of interest to buyers in the pipeline.
My question here is do other posters think I would be able to sustain my 500, 000 should the bubble burst or as it will be, in my opinion, a great place to live in the coming years should I still expect some level of growth. I know this a “how long is a piece of string” type question but surely areas such as this & possibly newbridge where infrastructure is increasing along with property development, house prices should at least keep their value.

I personally think Carrickmines is a great area. It's still an apartment in the suburbs, but the fact that it's in Carrickmines means it will probably ride the storm better than one in say, Adamstown or Clonsilla. There are good buys and bad buys no matter what stage of the market cycle you buy in, and I reckon an apartment in Carrickmines for 500k would be on the upper end of the good-buy/bad-buy spectrum. Mind you, I haven't seen the apartment, this is just my quick opinion.

But if you've come here looking for reassurance, I think you should probably close your eyes as you're in the wrong place!

 

[Guest111]

So fecking what...they're the most up to date figures available. Figures, fact, concrete, not the speculation we are engaged in.
To be fair CelloPoint, I think the shoeshine comment wasn't meant to be offensive. Both are good yardsticks for "the word on the street"

 

[BigM]

Hey! Taxi drivers are not akin to shoe-shine boys! I'll bet your average driver makes more money than your average professional multi-national worker.

I think ajpale was referring to the JFK's father (grandfather?) who sold his shares before the 1929 crash. His argument was that once the shoe-shine boys were giving out stock tips the boom was over....

 

[conor_mc]

My question here is do other posters think I would be able to sustain my 500, 000 should the bubble burst or as it will be, in my opinion, a great place to live in the coming years should I still expect some level of growth. I know this a “how long is a piece of string” type question but surely areas such as this & possibly newbridge where infrastructure is increasing along with property development, house prices should at least keep their value.

You're mistaking value and price.

Infrastructure adds value to your property, but only relative to the rest of the market.

 

[howstrange]

So fecking what...they're the most up to date figures available. Figures, fact, concrete, not the speculation we are engaged in.
To be fair CelloPoint, I think the shoeshine comment wasn't meant to be offensive. Both are good yardsticks for "the word on the street"

Yes but those "figures, fact, concrete" are 3/4 months old when things were just starting to slow!

I dont think the many examples seen here of price drops is speculation. Its FACT!!

 

[Guest111]

It is slightly worrying when a taxi man starts telling you about his 1 Bed in Alicante which "washes its face"

 

[Guest111]

On the one hand we have actual data...on the other we have anecdotes, speculation and our own disparate views.

 

[conor_mc]

On the one hand we have actual data...on the other we have anecdotes, speculation and our own disparate views.

Ironic, considering the vested interests tried to justify that data by excluding auction results.

Anyway, I'm sure the point about this data being 3/4 months old was to counteract your assertion that nobody buys in the run-up to Christmas.

 

[Guest111]

Which suggests that judging the overall situation on what's happening in the mouth of Christmas isn't prudent...

 

[hmmm]

Anyway, I'm sure the point about this data being 3/4 months old was to counteract your assertion that nobody buys in the run-up to Christmas.

I'm a bit confused as to when people are supposed to buy. Nobody buys over the Summer, nobody buys when approaching the budget, nobody buys in the runup to Christmas.

 

[CelloPoint]

I'm a bit confused as to when people are supposed to buy. Nobody buys over the Summer, nobody buys when approaching the budget, nobody buys in the runup to Christmas.

Good point!

 

[JayDub]

Brick workers facing 'temporary' lay-off

http://www.unison.ie/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1711864&issue_id=14803

"Workers at one of the largest brick makers in the country have been told that production at the plant will cease for at least two months as supply has exceeded demand."

"Workers were informed earlier this week that production at the plant will come to a halt at the end of December due to a downturn in sales and over-stocking of the factory yard."

Estate agents are twiddling their thumbs, brick makers are getting laid off, enough said.

 

[soma]

My question here is do other posters think I would be able to sustain my 500, 000 should the bubble burst

My own opinion (and of course I could be way wrong, just like all the other bears) is that if a capital and interest 25-year mortgage on your apartment is roughly equivalent to the rental cost, then you're safe. If not, I believe it's value will drop until it's affordable by the above criteria.

 

[Guest111]

Lol...good point. Christmas would be the only real no-no for me. I'd happily buy in the Summer, long evenings and good weather to move stuff/paint etc

 

[Guest111]

Why do you think that Soma?
Makes sense when talking about investors but not homeowners

 

[ben10]

Thanks for the input, you have confirmed what i have already been thinking. But i am still optimistic about not loosing equity (otherwise i'd go mad). But i have resigned myself to not getting the pay day that i would have expected had i bought the place 3-4 years ago. I would be happy to stay here for many years to come, just hope i dont have triplets any time soon (maybe when the ECB increase rates again!)
I realise that a few shops & a tram line will not add hundreds of thousands but hopefully it will mean i will be able to sell quicker than most if need be!

 

[CelloPoint]

Brick workers facing 'temporary' lay-off

http://www.unison.ie/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1711864&issue_id=14803

"Workers at one of the largest brick makers in the country have been told that production at the plant will cease for at least two months as supply has exceeded demand."

"Workers were informed earlier this week that production at the plant will come to a halt at the end of December due to a downturn in sales and over-stocking of the factory yard."

Estate agents are twiddling their thumbs, brick makers are getting laid off, enough said.

Nothing surprises me anymore. And another crack becomes visible - how can we patch this one up? Some poor hack is probably already busy trying to gloss over this news snippet.