Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Andy Doof said:
I meant most taximen have a chip on their shoulder...whether you fall into that category remains to be seen but dismissing PAYE workers earning 40K a year while you gossip at the rank with some socialist ar..hole isn't a great start.
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Don't dismiss me as having a chip on my shoulder just because I happen to drive people about at weekends. And chatting at the rank is part of the job - it's better than sitting in a car listening to fm104. And calling someone who I thought had something interesting to say, an "a-hole", just shows the extent of your intolerance - and besides, whoever said he was a socialist? A cunning capitalist perhaps... Let's not turn this debate into an anti-taxi rant driver by indulging in offensive stereotypical commentry please.
 
For those wishing for a sharp correction, you may have gotten your wish!

[broken link removed]

Firefly.
 
phoenix_n said:
Anyhow :mad: :)

Someone in work posted this http://www3.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=285977&np=1&rt=search&searchlist= for sale on the work intranet. (internal)

And added...

"Price is open for negotiation "
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Well this one sure ain't gonna get anything for the furnishings ;) Looks like a typical buy to let.

I'll offer them 100K (but I don't want the furniture ;)

Just a side note, Crumlin & Driminagh, great location in terms of proximity to the city, but if you don't like kids flying around at all hours of the night stay away. I does know a few what live 'dere.
 
Cello point, in fairness, its not just the "free university education brigade" (by that I'm assuming you mean middle-class families who benefited the most from free fees) who were FTB's during the last 5-10 years nor are they the only people in debt up to their eyeballs. The consumer culture that has been packaged, celebrated and sold in the Media and endorsed by politicians for the duration of the Celtic Tiger has cut across all social classes. I feel sorry for anybody facing financial ruin, whether they are entirely or only partly to blame-
(and entirely off-topic 45 quid to clonee is shocking:eek: - it only takes about 20 mins to get there from the city at night)
 
coinfused said:
(and entirely off-topic 45 quid to clonee is shocking:eek: - it only takes about 20 mins to get there from the city at night)
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I know it off topic but I won't go further than to say I think it outside the Dublin metropolitan area and it becomes a grey area after that in terms of charging (its not covered by the price, you could jsut leave the meter to roll and see how that grabs you). I recommend agreeing the price before you take carraige.

Its those kinds of costs would be enough to sway sentiment. Why buy high & still pay more for communting costs. All these extra costs people never factor into their purchase. Its the hidden costs, the ones twisting the knife into your bank O/D.
 
partisan said:
eh? I was in my mid 20's 5 years ago and couldn't get a loan for any of the houses then available (at least the ones I wanted - what's changed!) - even though I could have afforded the repayments. The average age of ftbs in Ireland has fallen from mid thirties to late twenties. Hardly smacks of young people not being able to get on the ladder. I for one, am grateful I was able to get a job here and didn't have to leave or sign on like about a half my parents generation. The economic boom made life easier for those who lived through the transition (those 5 years older than me - had I been born 5 years earlier...). If you've just graduated, save your money and look to buy in 5 years time. You'll be earning more, and even though prices are nominally high, low interest rates, longer terms, interest rate relief, low personal taxes, full employment makes paying high mortgages easier than you think. To get the loan, though, you _must_ have savings history.


And one more thing --> back then everyone was bearish and saying the market was going to crash (at least all us potential ftb's were). We hung on David McWilliams every word. The Nirvana of cheap housing and high wages was just around the corner - in 2001 prices even fell 10%. Look where we are now...
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Good post! a nice balance to the certainty being expressed on other posts here...

There may be a crash, there may not. McWilliams sounded convincing then, still does. Im sure he gets abuse from people who were swayed by the arguments and put off buying only to rent for the next 8 years..
 
Open_Window said:
I know it off topic but I won't go further than to say I think it outside the Dublin metropolitan area and it becomes a grey area after that in terms of charging (its not covered by the price, you could jsut leave the meter to roll and see how that grabs you). I recommend agreeing the price before you take carraige.
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Not true. The 26 counties is one taxi-meter area. Therefore, it goes on the meter the whole way... Simple as that - and it's the regulator who sets the fare, not the individual driver.

Open_Window said:
Its those kinds of costs would be enough to sway sentiment. Why buy high & still pay more for communting costs. All these extra costs people never factor into their purchase. Its the hidden costs, the ones twisting the knife into your bank O/D.
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That's it. Why buy a house in Clonnee over 35 years that costs 50% in mortgage costs than renting in Ranelagh... We're all adults here cabable of making rational decisions, and it's not the fault of glitzy marketing campaigns if you find yourself stuck in traffic for 4 hours a day and €45 taxi fares home.
 
CelloPoint said:
That's it. Why buy a house in Clonnee over 35 years that costs 50% in mortgage costs than renting in Ranelagh... We're all adults here cabable of making rational decisions, and it's not the fault of glitzy marketing campaigns if you find yourself stuck in traffic for 4 hours a day and €45 taxi fares home.
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If there were not people living out in places like this you would not be able to rent so cheaply in the more desirable areas
 
CelloPoint said:
Not true. The 26 counties is one taxi-meter area. Therefore, it goes on the meter the whole way... Simple as that - and it's the regulator who sets the fare, not the individual driver.
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Yes yes you are right sorry I forgot it all about that changed, jaysus catch up here me!! Sorry!
 
Duplex said:
Yeah I guess those Yankees cant afford proper house prices, shucks.
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And who would want to live in their cheap houses like these ( €320k ) right beside one of the world's great innovation areas that gave rise to Microsoft, Amazon, Boeing, Starbucks etc.

:rolleyes:

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Has there ever been a housing market anywhere that has increased as rapidly as ours has over the last ten years and not suffered some form of correction? I don't ask this sarcastically. Genuinely, has there been such a market? And, if so, where and when?

Also, what do people think are the key upcoming dates which could shift perception negatively or positively? Publication of the DAFT report (when is that?) will obviously be one; the ECB announcement in December another.
 
homeless said:
Has there ever been a housing market anywhere that has increased as rapidly as ours has over the last ten years and not suffered some form of correction? I don't ask this sarcastically. Genuinely, has there been such a market? And, if so, where and when?

Also, what do people think are the key upcoming dates which could shift perception negatively or positively? Publication of the DAFT report (when is that?) will obviously be one; the ECB announcement in December another.
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I read a report before that showed all the property bubbles in the last 100 years. I believe ours was the only one that had 60 straight quarters of growth. The longest growth with out a crash was 35 quarters I think. I'll have a look for it and let you know if I find it!
 
homeless said:
Has there ever been a housing market anywhere that has increased as rapidly as ours has over the last ten years and not suffered some form of correction? I don't ask this sarcastically. Genuinely, has there been such a market? And, if so, where and when?
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Only one market has ever had anything like a soft landing - that's the UK at the present time. There is an OECD paper which looks at this and it is the only exception to a fair number (like 30 or more) markets it looked at post WW2.

However, most UK-market watchers would say that it is too early to call for certain as a soft landing as interest rates are still headed up. And also the UK has control over it's own rate whereas we don't.

Going back to sentiment for a moment, caught a taxi today to the airport. Driver tells me that a relative has just moved and is letting out their old home as a buy-to-let. IO payments have gone from 1200 (breakeven) to 1500 in the past year so tenant is being subsidised. However, they were still sure that it was going up by 10-15% a year in capital value so they would net 200K-300K in a few years - 'no bother' :rolleyes:

I think there is still quite a big disconnect between this forum and the public at large.
 
Should we not form a a mutual buying syndicate to swoop in since we are all ahead of the game ... I kid you not.

Now, taxi men, they are an interesting conduit of whats going on. There opinion is worthless as such but its the info they have accumulated over time that makes them a most interestin chat more oftne than not.

I wouldn't take their profer in terms of financial vice, since a lot of them remortgaged over 100K to buy a liscence and (once again the banks were very happy lend a hand in what was a very grey area legally).

Its a perfect example of a bubble, with all its artificial controls and stimulus iwht a whallop of a correction at the end. Just look what happened when it was regulated, it collapsed and there was a lot of woe. So what will happen when it goes nationawide, if the taxi situation is anything go by the same multipled by a 1000.

No one can argue that more taxis on the road has not been the benefit for all, so why can we only have regulaiton in the taxi industry price wise & service but not in the Housing industry??? There is a strong argument for it, now.
 
homeless said:
Has there ever been a housing market anywhere that has increased as rapidly as ours has over the last ten years and not suffered some form of correction? I don't ask this sarcastically. Genuinely, has there been such a market? And, if so, where and when?

Also, what do people think are the key upcoming dates which could shift perception negatively or positively? Publication of the DAFT report (when is that?) will obviously be one; the ECB announcement in December another.
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page 30 of this should give you an idea: [broken link removed]

You can see here we are on 50 quarter growth (up until 2005 Q1) so that puts us at 56 quarters now.

The only ones ahead of us are the Dutch with 78 quarters (possibly 84 now?). However they have only grown 183% in that time while we have grown 242% in much less time.

Also you can see the longest line of growth without a downturn was:
Denmark with 45 Quarters growing 93% but that only ended in Q3 2004, 2 Quarters before this doc was written, I'm not sure if they are maintaining their soft landing.If you are looking for more established soft landings the best one is Finland 1993 to 2000, 27 quarters growth, 50% price increase.

I guess the past growth which best matches our own would be Japan 1977 to 1991, they had 54 quarter growth but only 77% growth. Their downturn was 40% reduction in prices.

From a growth total point of view, the largest growth without a decline was Canada, 1985 to 1985, where they manged 66% growth.

There has been nobody with as much growth in as short a time as us. In fact we are twice the next nearest growth total.

To by the looks of it there is a global property bubble and we are leading the way! With our 56 quarters of growth and 243% growth in that time!

This is scarey reading.
 
Thanks whizzbang... interesting reading alright; you should forward to Ger Gilroy!

Can we say definitively then that no other economies in world history have experienced housing price growth of more than 200% over a decade without suffering a severe correction...?
 
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