Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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I think this thread has served a purpose. From reading all the posts it seems to me
that the current public sentiment is that a crash/slowdown is inevitable in the
opinion of most posters.

Yes, but its pointless now, do we need another 1000 responses of the same points.

We know the generally sentiment at this stage.
 
This thread is pointless now, nearly 2000 posts and all it has served to do is that some people think property prices will decrease, others disagree.

Going around in circles now.

IF you feel it's pointless then don't contribute or read, personally i find the debate quite interesting and i'm considerably more bearish than bullish 90+ pages later.

Sentiment is a very difficult thing to judge and much of it will be anecdotal, from my point of view while many of my own peers (while still refusing to countenance the possibility of a crash) have accepted double digit growth cannot continue and are happily talking up the soft landind scenario.

Two of the group (both amatuer investors/speculators, one of whom is very stretched) would have been loudly vocal bulls last year proclaiming to all how they're going to be loaded in a few years.

The last few times we've discussed property as a group they're very very quiet now. Sometimes silence speaks volumes.
 
IF you feel it's pointless then don't contribute or read, personally i find the debate quite interesting and i'm considerably more bearish than bullish 90+ pages later.

Sentiment is a very difficult thing to judge and much of it will be anecdotal, from my point of view while many of my own peers (while still refusing to countenance the possibility of a crash) have accepted double digit growth cannot continue and are happily talking up the soft landind scenario.

Two of the group (both amatuer investors/speculators, one of whom is very stretched) would have been loudly vocal bulls last year proclaiming to all how they're going to be loaded in a few years.

The last few times we've discussed property as a group they're very very quiet now. Sometimes silence speaks volumes.

It is interesting that you've become more bearish by reading these posts. It has a
similar effect on me, however my experiences outside of this forum are very much
pulling me in the other direction (bullish).

A few of my close friends have bought houses as recently as February and at the
time the sentiment was similar to now. That the market was not sustainable, the
interest rates were rising, the supply was meeting demand etc, etc.

Since then the houses that they bought have increased in value from 260k in
February (Phase 1 new build) to 300k in July (Phase 2 new build). Still these new
houses are selling well.

At the moment I realise it's not a good time to buy property, but when will be a
better time than now?

Can anyone say for sure that this time next year, houses will be cheaper or even
the same price?
 
This thread is pointless now, nearly 2000 posts and all it has served to do is that some people think property prices will decrease, others disagree.
It is getting rather silly. What gets my goat is people seem to think they can predict a downturn in an irrational market. They don't seem to realise that irrationality by it's very nature; is inherently unpredictable. Not only that but any statistic or news report gets bent to fit these hypotheses'. Last year; the record sale of the old Jury's hotel site was proclaimed as the begining of the end for the Irish property market. Earlier this year, AIB sell up in Ballsbridge, property crash imminent we were told! Now the Kenny Group are selling, quick! everyone out of the pool, crash right around the corner! Of course, when a correction does occur, we'll have the smug posters here telling us, "We told you so".
 
Alrite lads, I'm going to brave d gauntlet here and tell you my opinion. I'm 28 and left my 50k well paid computer job here in cork 6 monthes with the aid of a nice severance package. I had gone to night school and got an auctioneers qualification so I got a job straight away in a auctioneers for a 20k salary plus commission. I made d move because I did not like my old job and was always v interested in property. in d last 6 monthes I've been learning d trade and I have begun to notice a change alrite recently. Developers and savvy people are slower in buying these days and some of them are begining to get rid of some of their stock. there is still strong demand from ftb's but they are being pushed to the lower scale of the price range, often to stuff that needs serious diy or far from d city but they are so desperate to get on d 1st rung they are going for them. previously I feel builders and developers were going for these but d margins are not there anymore so they are not bothering so much anymore because they feel sumthing is in d offing. I was(I think) lucky enough 2 buy in d city centre this time last year for 240k in d city in need of renovation and it is currently estimated at 350k. I am considering selling and taking my profit but d one thing stopping me is its location, 10 min walk from patrick st and I like living there and have 2 rooms rented out so repayments are grand.

I think we can all agree that sentiment is changing but its currently only d savvy and "cute" as we say here in cork realize it. I deal with people buying houses evrey day and d majority don't have an idea of what is really happening in terms of interest rate hikes and more to come. The desperate ftb are still clamouring to buy but recently I'd advised 2 of my own friends not to buy in d last month.

Personally I hope d crash does not happen as it wud hurt us all economically and d country wud struggle to get over it. I like living in Ireland close to my family and it wud pain me to leave for work abroad in whatever field. however I do think the country is gone to pot, I'm single without kids but have older sisters and brothers with kids and they have so bought into d american culture and to b honest d kids are spoilt rotten. pardon my lack of eluoquence here but d country is full of muppetts who are not going to enjoy d hard landing that looks to b on its way....

above is my opinion and not fact, please bear that in mind when u reply.
 
By the time you KNOW the sentiment has turned its too late for you if you bought recently .

Note to amateurs. Banks and Estate Agents sold their properties or theirs companies out recently .

MyHome.ie was sold too.

Now a large builders, Kennys, is on the blocks and for sale.

Once the 'smart' money 'exits' with cash in the pocket the money thats left in the market gets dumber and dumber by definition does it not ???

This thread exists to protect that dumber money from the consequences of its own folly if its caught on the hop by a sliding market.

For those of you of a certain age this is not the first mania you have seen, I can mark down the .com BS and the UK property market in the late 1980s myself. Each of these I knew to be a MANIA at the time with all sorts of gobsheens telling me I COULD NOT lose buying ....whatever. The same gobsheens were busy peddling some other crap within months.
 
Alrite lads, I'm going to brave d gauntlet here and tell you my opinion. I'm 28 and left my 50k well paid computer job here in cork 6 monthes with the aid of a nice severance package. I had gone to night school and got an auctioneers qualification so I got a job straight away in a auctioneers for a 20k salary plus commission. I made d move because I did not like my old job and was always v interested in property. in d last 6 monthes I've been learning d trade and I have begun to notice a change alrite recently. Developers and savvy people are slower in buying these days and some of them are begining to get rid of some of their stock. there is still strong demand from ftb's but they are being pushed to the lower scale of the price range, often to stuff that needs serious diy or far from d city but they are so desperate to get on d 1st rung they are going for them. previously I feel builders and developers were going for these but d margins are not there anymore so they are not bothering so much anymore because they feel sumthing is in d offing. I was(I think) lucky enough 2 buy in d city centre this time last year for 240k in d city in need of renovation and it is currently estimated at 350k. I am considering selling and taking my profit but d one thing stopping me is its location, 10 min walk from patrick st and I like living there and have 2 rooms rented out so repayments are grand.

I think we can all agree that sentiment is changing but its currently only d savvy and "cute" as we say here in cork realize it. I deal with people buying houses evrey day and d majority don't have an idea of what is really happening in terms of interest rate hikes and more to come. The desperate ftb are still clamouring to buy but recently I'd advised 2 of my own friends not to buy in d last month.

Personally I hope d crash does not happen as it wud hurt us all economically and d country wud struggle to get over it. I like living in Ireland close to my family and it wud pain me to leave for work abroad in whatever field. however I do think the country is gone to pot, I'm single without kids but have older sisters and brothers with kids and they have so bought into d american culture and to b honest d kids are spoilt rotten. pardon my lack of eluoquence here but d country is full of muppetts who are not going to enjoy d hard landing that looks to b on its way....

above is my opinion and not fact, please bear that in mind when u reply.

Great post corkfella, one of the best in this thread IMO.
 
This thread is pointless now, nearly 2000 posts and all it has served to do is that some people think property prices will decrease, others disagree.

Going around in circles now.

Agree. Im getting cliche poisoning. Methinks about time to put it out of it's misery.
 
Is there anyway we can do a poll of peoples feelings about the market in this forum?

Would be interesting to see the results. Also would be interesting to include variables like...
- does the person voting already own a home or is renting
- does the person voting own an investment property
- location of voter
- how much has the person borrowed to buy a property

etc etc

I would assume people with big mortgages would say the market will never dip and the people renting will say its just around the corner.

Thats the only way we can make sense of this mammoth thread.
 
As long as people are willing and able to pay for way overpriced property the housing market will continue to grow. It is my opinion that there is a queue of such people that are still in a panic to buy properties. There's as much evidence to suggest that the housing market will continue to grow in the short-term as there is for it to fall.

I'm in total agreement that it can't be sustained, all the evidence points to that,
but when will we see this crash/slowdown?

No evidence on this thread has me convinced that it's occurring now.

That's fine, take what's written here with a pinch of salt, but you see you haven't given any reasons for why you think the market will continue for the next 18 months apart from anecdotal "queues of people" that you've allegedly witnessed. Please tell us when and where.

'whathome' posted this on property bubbles a few days ago:
whathome said:
John P. Calverley is chief economist and strategist at American Express. He has produced a checklist for typical characteristics of a bubble:

- Rapidly rising prices
- High expectations for continuing rapid rises
- Overvaluation compared to historical averages
- Overvaluation compared to reasonable levels
- Several years into an economic upswing
- Some underlying reason or reasons for higher prices
- A new element, e.g. technology for stocks or immigration for housing
- Subjective "paradigm shift" (It's different this time)
- New investors drawn in
- New entrepreneurs in the area
- Considerable popular and media interest
- Major rise in lending
- Increase in indebtedness
- New lenders or lending policies
- Consumer price inflation often subdued (so central banks relaxed)
- Relaxed monetary policy
- Falling household savings rate
- A strong exchange rate

and what about the many reasons for changing sentiment that have been given already:
- rising interest rates (fact)
- rising energy costs (fact)
- change of government to one less favourable to developers (probable)
- stagnant rental market (fact)
- poor infrastructure making commuterland less and less attractive(fact)
- land corruption and artificially high land prices (fact)
- rapidly increasing inventory (fact)
- media hype and hard-sell of the 'latest developments' (anecdotal)
- unscrupulous availability of cheap money from the european banks (fact)
- Irish economic threats as a result of US economy (possibility)
- economic reliance on house-builing (fact)
- reliance on cheap imported labour (anecdotal)
- transient immigrant population who will up and leave if spooked (probable)
- Irish obsession with land-owning (fact)
- possibility that large numbers of section 23 investors will dump their investment properties onto the market if spooked (possibility)
etc., etc.

Do you have anything to add that proportionaly counteracts the above threats, facts and risks to the Irish property market?

I just cannot see how anyone can predict that "the housing market will continue to grow rapidy for at least another 18 months", I'm sorry, I really can't.

Also, are you a house/apartment/duplex owner? If yes, when and where did you buy?
 
Totally agree with Nacho Libre on this one

I believe there is 18 months at least left in this bull run. A couple of swallows dont make a summer. Among the rational persons in our population yes the sentiment is changing - but they aren't the ones who are driving this bubble.
The vested interests concerned will ensure that they can wring every last cent out of this and to hell with the future.

Regardless of what the ERSI, IMF or anyother financial commentator says I will guarantee you that Bertie our beloved leader, will be going around like an arsonsist on LSD to ensure the flames of this "boom" are burning brightly for the election - its on the only chance hes got - the next budget will be a giveaway regardless of all the downplaying, the next round of benchmarking will be a disgrace to all the rest of us who actually have to earn a living. the banks will be out to earn their christmas bonuses and will come up with even more elaborate ways to loan you money to keep their shareholders happy - and the great financially unwashed will still be saying you can't lose on property and get in there while you can and i really think interest rates will have to increase by another 2% at least to have any meaningful effect - When it comes to the property scenario in this country at the mo - we are not dealing in logic or rational.

the crunch will come as the US economy starts sliding - next year - its not looking good ( look at other thread for this)

Armageddon in late 2008/2009
 
Alrite lads, I'm going to brave d gauntlet here and tell you my opinion. I'm 28 and left my 50k well paid computer job here in cork 6 monthes with the aid of a nice severance package. I had gone to night school and got an auctioneers qualification so I got a job straight away in a auctioneers for a 20k salary plus commission. I made d move because I did not like my old job and was always v interested in property. in d last 6 monthes I've been learning d trade and I have begun to notice a change alrite recently. Developers and savvy people are slower in buying these days and some of them are begining to get rid of some of their stock. there is still strong demand from ftb's but they are being pushed to the lower scale of the price range, often to stuff that needs serious diy or far from d city but they are so desperate to get on d 1st rung they are going for them. previously I feel builders and developers were going for these but d margins are not there anymore so they are not bothering so much anymore because they feel sumthing is in d offing. I was(I think) lucky enough 2 buy in d city centre this time last year for 240k in d city in need of renovation and it is currently estimated at 350k. I am considering selling and taking my profit but d one thing stopping me is its location, 10 min walk from patrick st and I like living there and have 2 rooms rented out so repayments are grand.

I think we can all agree that sentiment is changing but its currently only d savvy and "cute" as we say here in cork realize it. I deal with people buying houses evrey day and d majority don't have an idea of what is really happening in terms of interest rate hikes and more to come. The desperate ftb are still clamouring to buy but recently I'd advised 2 of my own friends not to buy in d last month.

Personally I hope d crash does not happen as it wud hurt us all economically and d country wud struggle to get over it. I like living in Ireland close to my family and it wud pain me to leave for work abroad in whatever field. however I do think the country is gone to pot, I'm single without kids but have older sisters and brothers with kids and they have so bought into d american culture and to b honest d kids are spoilt rotten. pardon my lack of eluoquence here but d country is full of muppetts who are not going to enjoy d hard landing that looks to b on its way....

above is my opinion and not fact, please bear that in mind when u reply.

good honest post Corkfella. There are a few posters on here who appear far too sensitive at the mention of the market is heading south. They dont want any mention of the elephant in the corner.
 
Alrite lads, I'm going to brave d gauntlet here and tell you my opinion. I'm 28 and left my 50k well paid computer job here in cork 6 monthes with the aid of a nice severance package. I had gone to night school and got an auctioneers qualification so I got a job straight away in a auctioneers for a 20k salary plus commission. I made d move because I did not like my old job and was always v interested in property. in d last 6 monthes I've been learning d trade and I have begun to notice a change alrite recently. Developers and savvy people are slower in buying these days and some of them are begining to get rid of some of their stock. there is still strong demand from ftb's but they are being pushed to the lower scale of the price range, often to stuff that needs serious diy or far from d city but they are so desperate to get on d 1st rung they are going for them. previously I feel builders and developers were going for these but d margins are not there anymore so they are not bothering so much anymore because they feel sumthing is in d offing. I was(I think) lucky enough 2 buy in d city centre this time last year for 240k in d city in need of renovation and it is currently estimated at 350k. I am considering selling and taking my profit but d one thing stopping me is its location, 10 min walk from patrick st and I like living there and have 2 rooms rented out so repayments are grand.

I think we can all agree that sentiment is changing but its currently only d savvy and "cute" as we say here in cork realize it. I deal with people buying houses evrey day and d majority don't have an idea of what is really happening in terms of interest rate hikes and more to come. The desperate ftb are still clamouring to buy but recently I'd advised 2 of my own friends not to buy in d last month.

Personally I hope d crash does not happen as it wud hurt us all economically and d country wud struggle to get over it. I like living in Ireland close to my family and it wud pain me to leave for work abroad in whatever field. however I do think the country is gone to pot, I'm single without kids but have older sisters and brothers with kids and they have so bought into d american culture and to b honest d kids are spoilt rotten. pardon my lack of eluoquence here but d country is full of muppetts who are not going to enjoy d hard landing that looks to b on its way....

above is my opinion and not fact, please bear that in mind when u reply.

It's very interesting to see that you have advised two of your friends to hold off purchasing at the moment even though you are part of the industry now. I hope you don't expect an invitation to the EA's ball now that you have veered off course....

It would be good to hear from someone who works in a mortgage section of one of the banks to see are there any new trends occurring such as a reduction in investor purchases, increase/decrease in arrears/defaults
 
Just caught up reading the last two pages. The debate is beginning to rage but whilst i understand some people becoming defensive they have to realise that this thread is changing from current sentiment to what is beginning to happen in the market. And yes there are still people buying houses like there are those still buying secondhand alfa 156s.

And again i am going to say it. I believe that many apartments currently retailing for 380-400K will result in at least 150K been knocked off by the end of this year.

(The post by the Cork EA was interesting but this is the internet, no respect to him, so we cannot verify his opinion.)
 
Is there anyway we can do a poll of peoples feelings about the market in this forum?

Would be interesting to see the results. Also would be interesting to include variables like...
- does the person voting already own a home or is renting
- does the person voting own an investment property
- location of voter
- how much has the person borrowed to buy a property

etc etc

I would assume people with big mortgages would say the market will never dip and the people renting will say its just around the corner.

Thats the only way we can make sense of this mammoth thread.

i started a poll on boards.ie last month (think the link was in the post that i made when i started this thread)

the results of 143 votes are interesting to say the least and definitely indicative of a change in sentiment as the results are so far as follows:

Own a property & am bullish about market: 31 votes / 21.68%
own a property & am bearish: 49 votes / 34.27%
Don't own a property & am bullish: 13 votes / 9.09%
I do not own a property & am bearish: 50votes 34.97%

so all in all 70% bearish about property with the other 30% bullish , makes for a very interesting quick read doesn't it
 
I will not see that fall of yours by the end of the year Phoenix. I will however predict that certain apartments in residentially marginal areas will fall by 50% over the next 2 - 3 years probably 3 and that they will stay down there a long time.
 
That's fine, take what's written here with a pinch of salt, but you see you haven't given any reasons for why you think the market will continue for the next 18 months apart from anecdotal "queues of people" that you've allegedly witnessed. Please tell us when and where.

'whathome' posted this on property bubbles a few days ago:


and what about the many reasons for changing sentiment that have been given already:
- rising interest rates (fact)
- rising energy costs (fact)
- change of government to one less favourable to developers (probable)
- stagnant rental market (fact)
- poor infrastructure making commuterland less and less attractive(fact)
- land corruption and artificially high land prices (fact)
- rapidly increasing inventory (fact)
- media hype and hard-sell of the 'latest developments' (anecdotal)
- unscrupulous availability of cheap money from the european banks (fact)
- Irish economic threats as a result of US economy (possibility)
- economic reliance on house-builing (fact)
- reliance on cheap imported labour (anecdotal)
- transient immigrant population who will up and leave if spooked (probable)
- Irish obsession with land-owning (fact)
- possibility that large numbers of section 23 investors will dump their investment properties onto the market if spooked (possibility)
etc., etc.

Do you have anything to add that proportionaly counteracts the above threats, facts and risks to the Irish property market?

I just cannot see how anyone can predict that "the housing market will continue to grow rapidy for at least another 18 months", I'm sorry, I really can't.

Also, are you a house/apartment/duplex owner? If yes, when and where did you buy?

I don't own any property. All the points made above were relevant to this same
debate at Christmas 2005. Growth since then has been ridiculous. The only ones
that changed significantly were energy increases and interest rates.

Energy prices have always been increasing and the interest rates are rising slowly
and predictably. Hence the growth will continue IMO, just the same as it has since
Christmas.

18 months at least is a loose estimate. This is based on the way the interest rates
are going and the property supply increasing. This is based on my own observations of events happening around me. I'm not a big fan of stats because
they can be very easily skewed and you can take from them what you want.

Just my honest opinion. I'm no expert in this area. (as i'm sure you'll agree)
 
I will not see that fall of yours by the end of the year Phoenix. I will however predict that certain apartments in residentially marginal areas will fall by 50% over the next 2 - 3 years probably 3 and that they will stay down there a long time.

But do not underestimate those that have to sell. ( And developers can offload units at dramatically reduced prices and still make a profit. )
 
still cant see it unravel that fast mate. The UK slump in the early 90s really started about mid to late 1990 and bottomed about 1993 with dead cat bounce episodes in 1994 and 1995 until it started a sustained recovery about 1996 . I can see ours hissing air steadily for 3 years once the turn starts.

I will concede a noticeable drop in asking prices this year in the order of 10-15% off peak depending and thats on older housing . In new housing The builders will increase their allowances from say 10k to about 30k to 'hide' this in many cases but as the allowances go up they will obviously be masking a technical drop . Thats what happened in 2001 or so too.

Watch out for that FIRST.
 
still cant see it unravel that fast mate. The UK slump in the early 90s really started about mid to late 1990 and bottomed about 1993 with dead cat episodes in 1994 and 1995 .

Which bubble do you think is(was) bigger ?
 
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