Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Afuera]

The asking price for a house has no "real" significance. It's not like it's a price tag,
A starting point for a bidding war and a way to attract more interest a bit quicker.

Yes, this is a well acknowledged tactic by estate agents to draw buyers interest. It still doesn't answer why they have to use lower prices now then they were using back in April. When compared to last year there was not such a noticible dip.

I think you might be dissapointed if you're looking for absolute concrete proof of a slowdown. This will only really come out maybe 3-4 months after the market has begun to slide. If there is no pick up in sales this September or October then there's very real danger of a major slide happening.

 

[miju]

Just pure demand. I'm witnessing bidding wars everday for properties that are very
obviously overvalued and unattractive, but such is the demand that the back of the
queue of these overbidders is still not visible.

so on one hand you can see prices are obviously overvalued (your words) but yet you think this situation is sustainable?????

yeah right, you sure your not an estate agent seeing as you witness them everyday???

Afuera - The two examples you used the CSO figures - which explain nothing - were apartments empty? or are students not houses over the summer? Are houses empty due to old people in a home (2 houses on my cul de sac of 17 are like this - old person in a home - house empty). Investors buying holiday homes for their own use which were empty. The CSO stats are very raw and hard to use as the basis for any arguement.

the cso figures DIDN'T include holiday homes and if i'm not mistaken the census certainly wasn't carried out in the summer so bang goes that student theory of yours and has for the old people while i've no hard stats / evidence i think it's pretty safe to say that they're contribution to the full figure would be negligible

 

[nacho_libre]

Hot cakes in Cork?

Not sure about that.

I had bid in on one place and could not believe how quickly it was accepted, I walked away, also went to view new apartments in Blackpool (< 1 mile from city centre) and the EA seems to be struggling to shift them.

What about this place for example?

[broken link removed]

There is currently an offer on this house of 256k and I've seen. It needs about a lot
of work on the inside. About 20k-30k.

Just an example that the demand is still strong.

 

[Afuera]

Afuera - The two examples you used the CSO figures - which explain nothing - were apartments empty? or are students not houses over the summer? Are houses empty due to old people in a home (2 houses on my cul de sac of 17 are like this - old person in a home - house empty). Investors buying holiday homes for their own use which were empty. The CSO stats are very raw and hard to use as the basis for any arguement.

Holiday homes are not counted in that figure. The census was held during April which would rule out students being away for summer. Old people in homes is legitimate but as you know we've a very young demographic which would make it hard for all 275,000 to be explained by this.

As for the BOI stats - I don't believe that 27,000 homes were paid for with cash - but - if I wanted to justify a point based on raw general statistics I could say - that 20,000+ houses were bought for cash in 2005 which proves there is a lot of cash in the Irish property market which means there is a lot of room for levearge and further expension of the market in the coming years.. That statement is as based on fact as yours and we both know what I just wrote isn't the fact of the situation....

If you said that 20,000+ houses were bought outright then this would not only prove that there is a lot of cash in the Irish property market. It would also prove that people are speculating on capital appreciation. That's not exactly a healthy sign.

Lies, damn lies and statistics!

As with anything the facts can be spun

There's a limit to how far credibility can go out the window though. BoI using an average mortgage of 200,000 to try and measure affordability is just taking the piss to be honest.

 

[nacho_libre]

so on one hand you can see prices are obviously overvalued (your words) but yet you think this situation is sustainable?????

yeah right, you sure your not an estate agent seeing as you witness them everyday???



the cso figures DIDN'T include holiday homes and if i'm not mistaken the census certainly wasn't carried out in the summer so bang goes that student theory of yours and has for the old people while i've no hard stats / evidence i think it's pretty safe to say that they're contribution to the full figure would be negligible

I think this situation is certainly sustainable for the next 18 months or so. What
happens after that.....I've know idea.

All the logic points to a slowdown, but I'm not seeing it happening and I'm obviously not the only one.


BTW I'm not an estate agent.

 

[Guest126]

The link shows what we all already know - people have been (and some still are) buying terrible property for crazy prices.

The fact that EAs are struggling with a block of nice brand new aparts hints that the tide is turning.

 

[miju]

BTW I'm not an estate agent.

fair enough , though three of your posts strongly suggest otherwise with knowledge of bids on houses etc for starts.

interested to know your reasoning on why you think the market will sustain for 18 months

 

[delboy159]

I came up with a handful of quick examples off the top of my head to prove that a generalised raw figure needs to be brocken down before it can be used as the basis for anything.

Also the Census was done (I think) May 20th ish - which would have a lot of student properties vacated in and and around or after exam times.. Also many dwellings would be empty due to renovations, properties built on sites down the country, but not occupied because the owner lives and works in Dublin. Also how many of Limerick were in empty homes at that brilliant weekend (I wasn't in my home, Cardiff, will we ever forget)

I can name loads of empty homes for numerous reasons and they are only in the small little micro perspective of my life...

 

[Afuera]

Also the Census was done (I think) May 20th ish - which would have a lot of student properties vacated in and and around or after exam times.. Also many dwellings would be empty due to renovations, properties built on sites down the country, but not occupied because the owner lives and works in Dublin. Also how many of Limerick were in empty homes at that brilliant weekend (I wasn't in my home, Cardiff, will we ever forget)

Wrong! It was Sunday 23rd of April:

 

[Guest107]

empties

and the census staff checked with the neighbours whether they were EMPTY as in unused or whether NOBODY WAS HOME before declaring them as really empty .

 

[rgfuller]

As for the BOI stats - I don't believe that 27,000 homes were paid for with cash - but - if I wanted to justify a point based on raw general statistics I could say - that 20,000+ houses were bought for cash in 2005 which proves there is a lot of cash in the Irish property market which means there is a lot of room for levearge and further expension of the market in the coming years..

Also people returning to Ireland, having sold up abroad, could have bought these properties outright with proceeds from foreign sales.

A few of the property shows earlier this year showed people returning to Ireland from the UK with cash in hand.

How many people immigrated to Ireland last year ~ 46,000 ?
http://www.migrationinformation.org/Feature/display.cfm?id=402

 

[bearishbull]

The fact that many sellers are agreeing to changing the asking price for their house on myhome is an indicator that sentiment is somewhat changed. Why would they reduce the asking prices when they know some potential buyers would have seen the higher earlier asking price?

Maybe the estate agent is telling them that it will attract in potential buyers but why do they need to attract potential buyers with lower asking prices if market is currently strong?

If the market is strong and still rising substantially why not wait a few weeks/ a month or two untill the price has increased(if prices are still increasing) and asking price is no longer excessive?

 

[CelloPoint]

Just pure demand. I'm witnessing bidding wars everday for properties that are very
obviously overvalued and unattractive, but such is the demand that the back of the
queue of these overbidders is still not visible. Of course I can only speak for my own
particular area but even in this particular area the talk of an eminent crash is
constant yet the properties are still selling like hot-cakes.

OK, so you come on to askaboutmoney saying there's "no 'real' evidence that this [a property slowdown] has commenced yet or is anywhere near commencing", yet you have no actual solid reasoning yourself to predict that "the housing market will continue to grow rapidy for at least another 18 months".

It is plainly obvious that the market is unsustainable when you consider the large inventory, rising interest rates/energy costs, changing demographics and the possibility of immigrants leaving once the mad rush to build all these complexes under construction ends.

 

[Afuera]

Also people returning to Ireland, having sold up abroad, could have bought these properties outright with proceeds from foreign sales.

A few of the property shows earlier this year showed people returning to Ireland from the UK with cash in hand.

How many people immigrated to Ireland last year ~ 46,000 ?
http://www.migrationinformation.org/Feature/display.cfm?id=402

This is a possible explanation for some of those people buying homes outright. But IMHO I'd say as a percentage of all sales, this group would be quite small. The same website you linked to has reports showing that there were large numbers of immigrants from the accession EU states applying for PPS numbers around the same time. This group of immigrants are not going to be easily able to buy Irish property using hard cold cash!

 

[bearishbull]

mortgage rates hitting 4.5% by xmas or 5% by next summer will mean FTB's can borrow a lot less than last december. When FTB's cant borrow to buy demand will fall off while supply remains strong and continues to grow, People who want to trade up cant sell at current prices so have to stay or reduce prices , etc etc.

 

[nacho_libre]

OK, so you come on to askaboutmoney saying there's "no 'real' evidence that this [a property slowdown] has commenced yet or is anywhere near commencing", yet you have no actual solid reasoning yourself to predict that "the housing market will continue to grow rapidy for at least another 18 months".

It is plainly obvious that the market is unsustainable when you consider the large inventory, rising interest rates/energy costs, changing demographics and the possibility of immigrants leaving once the mad rush to build all these complexes under construction ends.

As long as people are willing and able to pay for way overpriced property the housing market will continue to grow. It is my opinion that there is a queue of such people that are still in a panic to buy properties. There's as much evidence to suggest that the housing market will continue to grow in the short-term as there is for it to fall.

I'm in total agreement that it can't be sustained, all the evidence points to that,
but when will we see this crash/slowdown?

No evidence on this thread has me convinced that it's occurring now.

 

[SteelBlue05]

This thread is pointless now, nearly 2000 posts and all it has served to do is that some people think property prices will decrease, others disagree.

Going around in circles now.

 

[room305]

I can name loads of empty homes for numerous reasons and they are only in the small little micro perspective of my life...

The figure isn't for empty homes it is for vacant homes. The figure doesn't include houses where people are actually living but were unable to be contacted by the census enumerator.

 

[nacho_libre]

This thread is pointless now, nearly 2000 posts and all it has served to do is that some people think property prices will decrease, others disagree.

Going around in circles now.

I think this thread has served a purpose. From reading all the posts it seems to me
that the current public sentiment is that a crash/slowdown is inevitable in the
opinion of most posters.

 

[ninsaga]

No evidence on this thread has me convinced that it's occurring now.

Agreed. There are always going to be isolated incidents..... and have been during the last few years of properties that just do not sell & prices drop. To counter these arguments I know of 2 fine houses that did not sell... just not located very well yet the sellers still continued to increase the asking price from time to time in line with the madness.... eventually they did sell for the high price!

As per prev post above, I'm also in Cork & still see very strong demand here. So providing details of the odd problem is not an indicator of a slow down as far as I can see.

ninsaga