Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[southsideboy]

Nevertheless, I think my time has finally come, and possibly with a vengeance. I saw in yesterday's IT that the number of withdrawals was double the number of sales at auction.

Its July. What do you expect? This happens every year

 

[southsideboy]

Just wondering of all of those who are posting, who actually wants a crash in the property market? Maybe I'm wrong but it seems that some posters are actually hoping for a crash in the market which obviously will have very serious effects on the overall economy.

 

[ninsaga]

Its July. What do you expect? This happens every year

..agree... the market is slower during the summer....it's not uncommen at this time of year for people to make viewing appointments but not bother showing up 'cause of 'the fine weather' or the world cup etc etc.

As regards predicting the doom 3 yrs ago..... a small bit off the mark there Wollie... but one day you will be right for sure!

ninsaga

 

[SineWave]

As regards predicting the doom 3 yrs ago..... a small bit off the mark there Wollie... but one day you will be right for sure!

I folowed the doom predictors 3 years ago and sold a property for 379k. They are now selling at €600k (thanks Dundrum SC and Luas!).

I told my brother to follow the doom predictors last year and wait before purchase. They were ready to agree on the one they were renting at €400k. Last similar on estate sold at €500k.

Keeping zipped now!

 

[Amygdala]

crash in the market which obviously will have very serious effects on the overall economy.

Is the economy so reliant on housing? What is wrong with FTBs ( who have also probably rented) wanting to get a basic human need at a fair price. Why is the market based on affordability spread over a full working career rather than actual value. When a price is set by squeezzing the last penny out of the buyer rather than the item purchased, it smacks of extorsion

 

[Duplex]

“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” Warren Buffett quotes

 

[walk2dewater]

I folowed the doom predictors 3 years ago and sold a property for 379k. They are now selling at €600k (thanks Dundrum SC and Luas!).

I told my brother to follow the doom predictors last year and wait before purchase. They were ready to agree on the one they were renting at €400k. Last similar on estate sold at €500k.

Keeping zipped now!

So let me see if I've got this straight, cos I encounter this argument on regular basis in ireland. If the doctor says you've got to stop your 100 smokes/day habit, and he said that 3 years ago and nothings happened since, then, (a) he's a doom predictor/monger, and (b) you'll never die of lung cancer.

So therefore he's wrong. So ignore this obvious nonsense advice and enjoy smoking even more. What the hell does he know anyway, right?

Well assuming that the doctor knows what he's talking about, wouldnt you think, despite the fact that you're not coughing blood and can breathe fine, that your risks of cancer are even HIGHER today?

 

[southsideboy]

Is the economy so reliant on housing? What is wrong with FTBs ( who have also probably rented) wanting to get a basic human need at a fair price. Why is the market based on affordability spread over a full working career rather than actual value. When a price is set by squeezzing the last penny out of the buyer rather than the item purchased, it smacks of extorsion

I'm a FTB and I don't moan about prices all the time. I have had to buy out in Stepaside as opposed to Ranelagh or Milltown where I would prefer but I'm sure one day I'll be able to afford in those areas. Its not really extorsion. Nobody is being forced to buy. Prices are high because Irish people are obsessed with owning property. And yes the economy is very reliant on housing. I'm sure somebody else can come up with the figures but the construction trade accounts for a very large proportion of employment and GDP. Also if a crash occurs, many people will be left with negative equity.

 

[southsideboy]

So let me see if I've got this straight, cos I encounter this logic on regular basis in ireland. If the doctor says you've got to stop your 100 smokes/day habit, and he said that 3 years ago and nothings happened since, then, (a) he's a doom predictor/monger, and (b) you'll never die of lung cancer.

So therefore he wrong. The only logical thing to do is to ignore this obvious nonsense advice and enjoy smoking even more. What the hell does he know anyway, right?

Well assuming that the doctor knows what he's talking about, wouldnt you think, despite the fact that you're not coughing blood and can breathe fine, that your risks of cancer are even HIGHER today?

Nobody is going to suggest that there will never be a downturn in the property market but the question is when. The point is that for the past 6 or 7 years people have been predicting a crash and its never happened. You're analogy doesn't make any sense. How is smoking 100 cigarettes a day the same as buying property. Are you suggesting that nobody should ever buy property because of the risk element?

 

[SineWave]

So let me see if I've got this straight, cos I encounter this logic on regular basis in ireland. If the doctor says you've got to stop your 100 smokes/day habit, and he said that 3 years ago and nothings happened since, then, (a) he's a doom predictor/monger, and (b) you'll never die of lung cancer.

So therefore he wrong. The only logical thing to do is to ignore this obvious nonsense advice and enjoy smoking even more. What the hell does he know anyway, right?

Well assuming that the doctor knows what he's talking about, wouldnt you think, despite the fact that you're not coughing blood and can breathe fine, that your risks of cancer are even HIGHER today?

Since you ask the question, no I don't think you've got it straight, as my post was in agreement with ninsaga. Why should there be a crash and not just a levelling off?

In summary of your post I believe that your cryptic comparison is saying that if I don't own a house I will not be subject to a crash? Brilliant and priceless!

Since having been a reader and sometimes contributor to AAM since early '03, I will also add that if there is a "crash" within the immediate future then to the best of my knowledge none of the AAM past predictions has been correct. Nobody foresaw the influx of Polish tenants, the banks extending mortgage lifetimes as well as 100% mortgages.

 

[walk2dewater]

How is smoking 100 cigarettes a day the same as buying property

Well it's not, is it. It's an analogy. I used it to show the false logic of predicting an outcome based on recent history rather than the facts. The facts are that today the risk of price falls is HIGHER than ever (these facts discussed ad nausem above and elsewhere). That there hasn't been a crash only means our luck is running out.

 

[walk2dewater]

I have had to buy out in Stepaside .

Nobody is being forced to buy.

Nobody except you then?

Also if a crash occurs, many people will be left with negative equity.

And many won't. We're not "all in this together".

 

[walk2dewater]

Why should there be a crash and not just a levelling off?

There can be no levelling off because when people EXPECT that prices have stopped going up there will be far more sellers than buyers. That's what sucks about asset bubbles.

I think we may have reached this point this Summer, will probably have to wait until Autumn though to confirm it for me

 

[southsideboy]

Nobody except you then?

I could rent in Milltown or Ranelagh if I wanted. I choose not to. If I want to buy then I have to buy further out but nobody is being forced to buy in the first place.

 

[Amygdala]

The probability off a "correction" is approaching unity in IMHO. It is evident by the argument " talking of a crash will precipitate one" and the vain attempt at causing "reasonable doubt" in public opinon by the "for years you have been forecasting a crash and it has not happened yet" argument.

 

[walk2dewater]

I could rent in Milltown or Ranelagh if I wanted. I choose not to. If I want to buy then I have to buy further out but nobody is being forced to buy in the first place.

And good luck to you, genuinely, SSB

 

[SineWave]

There can be no levelling off because when people EXPECT that prices have stopped going up there will be far more sellers than buyers. That's what sucks about asset bubbles.

But there were the same predictions in previous years and the same reactions leading to increased sales. Banks just moved goalposts along with the result of EU accession.

I remember pessimistically reporting on this board regards "nests" of auctioneers signs on Knocknacarra, Galway in 2003. One agent even had the €225k (now €325'ish) in stars similar to Lidl startegy.

 

[walk2dewater]

But there were the same predictions in previous years and the same reactions leading to increased sales.

As long as people BELIEVE that property prices will only ever go up they will continue buying property at ANY price.

My prediction is precisely the following: When people BELIEVE that prices have stopped going up there will be far more sellers than buyers.

 

[SineWave]

As long as people BELIEVE that property prices will only ever go up they will continue buying property at ANY price.

I know of many who believe they will settle and/or go up and have no intention of buying.

I know of many who believe they will go down, but have no intention of selling.

I know of many who don't care what prices do but they do but just want to buy.

Hype will not persuade many and I would prefer if it had not persuaded me in the past.

Apologies for the simplistic level of the reply, but it's in keeping with the level of the quoted statement.

 

[walk2dewater]

I know of many who believe they will settle and/or go up and have no intention of buying.

I know of many who believe they will go down, but have no intention of selling.

I know of many who don't care what prices do but they do but just want to buy.

Hype will not persuade many and I would prefer if it had not persuaded me in the past.

Apologies for the simplistic level of the reply, but it's in keeping with the level of the quoted statement.

I was just trying explain as succintly as possible what the herd does when market sentiment turns at the top of a mania. I guess it still wasn't clear enough.