Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Status
Not open for further replies.
partisan said:
Ah, that makes sense. So is there away to see their current cash balance vis a vis their interest payments on the balance sheet? Cashflow seems alot higher for 2005 at 206.5 million than 31.2 million in interest payments. Do you think if sales volumes drop they won't be able to make their interest payments? How far would volumes have to drop (and how fast) before that became a factor?
Click to expand...

The RNS statement from March for the full year is here (if you are that interested)

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200603150700298088Z

As a builders merchant, it slightly different from looking at a developer. They also have a significant portion of their business outside Ireland which muddies things further. So as to how much the slowdown will hurt these guys, it is hard to say. I guess their UK arm will do well from the Olympics.
 
Debtwish said:
The RNS statement from March for the full year is here (if you are that interested)

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200603150700298088Z

As a builders merchant, it slightly different from looking at a developer. They also have a significant portion of their business outside Ireland which muddies things further. So as to how much the slowdown will hurt these guys, it is hard to say. I guess their UK arm will do well from the Olympics.
Click to expand...

Developers slashing prices is the only way I can see a real, severe, crash happening.. So, I am that interested ;-)

Thanks!
 
14 Oldbridge Park Lucan

Old Price 395k
[broken link removed]

New price 360k
[broken link removed]
 
Last edited:
Originally Posted by whathome http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?p=302357#post302357
.................................................. .............
The Irish property market right now is like a drunk who decides to have three more whiskeys before driving home. He might just make it but I wouldn't want to be a passenger!


That is a good Analogy. Homer Simpson and Santa's little helper come to mind.
 
AIB predicting economic growth of 6% for this year
23/10/2006 - 12:48:26

AIB is predicting economic growth of 6% for this year, an increase of half a percentage point on last year.

However, in its latest forecast, the bank says growth should start to wane from next year as interest rates continue to rise and house prices stabilise.

AIB economist John Begg says Ireland's performance so far this year has been impressive, but Finance Minister Brian Cowen should steer clear of a giveaway budget and not do anything to upset the housing market.​
 
Just filing through my notes and found this, I posted it up on an old forum, its a quote from Brian Cowen when asked about the Irish Property Market a good few months ago. This interview (radio, possibly Newstalk or RTE) I think was pre McDowells Stamp Duty Kite flying exercise.

I believe he was being asked if the growth could be sustained or was it close to a crash something like that, his response was,

"we are in a new situation....... a new situation"

So our Minister for Finance firmly believe in the "new paradigm" , that Ireland is indeed performing on a new set of economic laws, divergent from the universe at large.
 
I think the banks must be seeing a massive dropoff in FTBs.

- AIB handing out 2,000 cash to any new FTBs. I passed several several massive billboards advertising this on the way home tonight
- NIB droping their rates 0.5% for non-FTBs. They have obviously realised they won't be able to grow their business with FTBs so are targetting other banks mature customers instead.

Everyone I have talked to who was considering buying has suddenly decided to wait and see because they think they wil get a better deal next year. 6% house price growth next year my ass. John Begg can see the FTB mortgage sales curve plummeting but is still wheeled out to make ridiculous reports like this. Hilarious
 
Heard from a friend of a lawyer that conveyancing business has dropped somewhat recently. Certainly still business, just not as hectic as earlier in the year.

Really just confirms what is obvious from daft.ie, myhome.ie, and signs on the streets - the market has slowed.
 
I think the banks must be seeing a massive dropoff in FTBs.

- AIB handing out 2,000 cash to any new FTBs. I passed several several massive billboards advertising this on the way home tonight
- NIB droping their rates 0.5% for non-FTBs. They have obviously realised they won't be able to grow their business with FTBs so are targetting other banks mature customers instead.

Everyone I have talked to who was considering buying has suddenly decided to wait and see because they think they wil get a better deal next year. 6% house price growth next year my ass. John Begg can see the FTB mortgage sales curve plummeting but is still wheeled out to make ridiculous reports like this. Hilarious
Click to expand...
I totally concur - either its denial or the banks are staring the facts straight in the face and have decided to throw on their "Ronaldinho" Supersub economists on for the last 10 minutes to see if it will get them over the finish line to their christmas bonuses which by April this year they must assumed were in the bag.(eg Begg . O'Leary, McLaughlin and the unforgettable Austin Hughes)

From the Indo - this morning


http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1711087&issue_id=14798

and there's more - go figure - having read the above

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1711139&issue_id=14798

and sure its only a few billion - here and there and we'll be looking for more

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1710989&issue_id=14798

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1711004&issue_id=14798
 
Phoenix,

How does your post contribute to the Debate? "Current public sentiment towards the housing market?"

aj
 
ajapale said:
Phoenix,

How does your post contribute to the Debate? "Current public sentiment towards the housing market?"

aj
Click to expand...

I merely am noting the supply side increasing in a particular suburb. In my opinion it is the supply factor which will have the most important effect on sentiment and by noting an increase in just one area is indicative of total supply.
 
Ok, but try to make meaningful contributions consisting of full English sentences. This will make for a better debate.
 
Another debate on Newstalk this morning about stamp duty and it's affects on the market. An estate agent, and an economist (from H & McDonald I think) arguing it's all stamp duty's fault for the slump. The economist reckoned that prices would continue to remain high as there was no shortage of demand around Dublin for property - supply wasn't keeping up with the demand he argued!!!!............

I texted in that they kept having property vested interest love ins on the show and they needed to find some property bears to talk to and also that stamp duty is a red herring, (as pointed out previously on this thread). In fairness to Ger Gilroy he read the text out along with a similar one saying the the bubble was bursting.

Surely at this stage stamp duty can't be an issue with buyers holding off as you can just ensure that the deal closes the far side of the budget in 6-7 weeks because everyone expects SD thresholds to go up?
 
Selected a few random areas to count supply on 12th Oct. Did the same today. These are the figures (myhome.ie):

Clonsilla 150 (up from 138)
Lucan 242 (up from 238)
Blanchardsown 84 (up from 76)
Knocklyon 46 (up from 41)
Inchicore 55 (up from 49)
Kilmainham 36 (up from 30)

=> In the last 10 days in every one of these areas, the supply has gone up considerably. Looks like a soft landing to me!!!!!!!!
 
In the short term, if houses sell more slowly, the effect will be an increase in supply as new ones continue to come on to the market. I don't think that these quoted figures over a fortnight could be taken has evidence of a soft landing.

d
 
howstrange said:
Selected a few random areas to count supply on 12th Oct. Did the same today. These are the figures (myhome.ie):

Clonsilla 150 (up from 138)
Lucan 242 (up from 238)
Blanchardsown 84 (up from 76)
Knocklyon 46 (up from 41)
Inchicore 55 (up from 49)
Kilmainham 36 (up from 30)

=> In the last 10 days in every one of these areas, the supply has gone up considerably. Looks like a soft landing to me!!!!!!!!
Click to expand...

As an attempt at balance.. I've noticed the supply (on myhome.ie) in Ranelagh lowering (but only slightly). From a high of about 55 a few weeks ago, to 48 now.

However it has to be said that that is still a very high number for such a small suburb.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top