Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[conor_mc]

Except Alan Cooke, Chief Executive of IAVI who said in an interview with Hookie the other day that it would change and Cowen was not in position to know for sure what is going to be in the budget because it is not prepared until Budget day (or something equally ludicrous).

I wonder what assurances he recieved in the Tent?

I heard that guy on the radio. Never have I hard such utter tosh, pretending to be the FTB's best friend by asking the Finance Minister to give them a leg-up! The thing nobody seems to pull him up on is that an SD change might help current prospective FTB's, but will screw the next batch because prices would have moved beyond them again in Austin Hughes's 7% soft landing.

My take on this is that either these guys have been briefed by the Minister, or else there is a concerted, combined effort to exert serious pressure on Cowan to change SD this December.

It was interesting listening to Jim Power describing this as Cowan "managing expectations" whereas any rational person (who believes what a politician says...!!) would consider it as Cowan ruling out definitively any SD changes. I don't know how these guys can call this leap of faith "analysis".

 

[Stiofan]

Even as a FTB I would be in favour of no change to SD as it just prolongs the inevitable. What at first may be seen as an effort to lessen the burden on FTB will quickly be turned in a temporary market stimulus by those with vested in house price increases. Then what? 6 months down the road we will find ourselves in the same position but with a heavier debt burden lying in wait for that batch of FTBs.

Like Conor Mc I would be very skeptical of the motives of certain people trying to push for SD changes. In fact I think its time we let the market take care of itself instead of interfering to sustain the profits of the same people who put us in this predicament.

 

[arbus]

I put a box room up on daft during the summer and eventually got a suitable person after 6 weeks and only 4 viewings (no Irish). I put another room in the same house on daft two weeks ago and got 20 viewings in two days. One Irish person. The rest broke down to those leaving the Southern European summer working market, people wanting to get into an Irish construction related industry, those who have just left college and one student. Few, if any, of these new immigrants can afford to become a FTB in Ireland.

By Christmas those with a place will stay, those without will go home and say to their friends that there is no room in Dublin and the rental price is too expensive versus the starting wages that are in Ireland. So the investment sellers will find in January that their property has been on the market for 3 to 9 months. This might be a good time to approach them saying that you'll look after/rent their place until the summer selling season and move out then, at which time it won't sell anyways.

I wonder if Cowan realised that as more investors put there properties on the market, where Irish FTBs will wait (and can wait longer than the vendor), the fewer economy fuelling cheap labour immigrants will stay (too expensive to rent when the lease comes up). They might say "lets go home for Christmas" and either return to London in the new year to work on that Olymipc thingy, or take out an NIB mortgage on a Polish(or relative homeland) property and open a business with all the money that they have made here over the last five years. Especially with €8bn in EU infrastructure going into Poland and a stream of cheap Romanians to employ as they once were by the Irish. How many immigrants will return in the new year, how many new ones will come with them, what will our reputation as the European employment promised land in 2007 and how many unsold properties will there be?

I've been leaving in Ireland for about 5 years now and I am quite sure that many eastern europeans will leave Ireland in 2-5 years. That is just inevitable. All Polish whom I know are not planning to stay here longer. Many are buying property in Poland now (btw some smart Irish inverstors already sold their property in Dublin and invested in Polish property like our landlord). I am very pessimistic about Irish economy in general, I am sure that non-irish companies will be moving their business from here. Altogether in coming years we will witness less and less immigrants coming here, many jobs loses which will result in dropping houses prices.
BTW
You all compare yields, number of houses per person, supply vs demand etc.
There is another very important thing - the quality of the house. I've never seen such a poor constructions as Irish houses built recently. You should be crazy paying 400+k for such a cardboard boxes.

 

[Open_Window]

Just noticed this,

ESTATE AGENCY BUSINESS PLUS LICENCE FOR SALE

Once off start up opportunity for a discerning purchaser to obtain an active Estate Agency business located in the busy thriving sought after area of Swords. This lucrative business is on Main Street area with excellent footfall. It comes with office furniture,window display & fully operational Auctioneers Licence.

Would suit Auctioneer, start up Auctioneers or Investor alike.

Price: E65,000

http://www.daft.ie/53769

Seems like the change in sentiment is spreading, first time i have ever seen an Estate Agents up for sale on daft more fateful irony.

ALso how can this person sell the liscene, surely you must resit a test, I cannot sell my Driver licence. Maybe its like the pubs....

 

[StoppedClock]

Just noticed this,



http://www.daft.ie/53769

Seems like the change in sentiment is spreading, first time i have ever seen an Estate Agents up for sale on daft more fateful irony.

That has to be a piss take, 1000square feet for 65K, i'd live there for that!!

 

[minky]

I've been leaving in Ireland for about 5 years now and I am quite sure that many eastern europeans will leave Ireland in 2-5 years. That is just inevitable. All Polish whom I know are not planning to stay here longer. Many are buying property in Poland now (btw some smart Irish inverstors already sold their property in Dublin and invested in Polish property like our landlord). I am very pessimistic about Irish economy in general, I am sure that non-irish companies will be moving their business from here. Altogether in coming years we will witness less and less immigrants coming here, many jobs loses which will result in dropping houses prices.
BTW
You all compare yields, number of houses per person, supply vs demand etc.
There is another very important thing - the quality of the house. I've never seen such a poor constructions as Irish houses built recently. You should be crazy paying 400+k for such a cardboard boxes.

Arbus if you don't mind me asking, are any/many of your fellow immigrants who are thinking of staying considering buying irish property? (or do they think that the prices are insanely inflated)

There was a report a while back saying that immigrants were making up 18.5% of ftb purchases. What do you make of that? Is their truth to it or do you think the number was blown up and exadgerated as I suspect?

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0823/houses.html

 

[partisan]

That has to be a piss take, 1000square feet for 65K, i'd live there for that!!

Apart from the office furniture - the 65k probably covers their brand, their current client list, their lease (you'd be paying their rent) and their wage bill (eek!). 65k for a going concern seems like fire sale.

 

[arbus]

Arbus if you don't mind me asking, are any/many of your fellow immigrants who are thinking of staying considering buying irish property? (or do they think that the prices are insanely inflated)

There was a report a while back saying that immigrants were making up 18.5% of ftb purchases. What do you make of that? Is their truth to it or do you think the number was blown up and exadgerated as I suspect?

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0823/houses.html

well, thats true that immigrants are buying houses...
not many Polish though because they mostly plan to go home in a few years..
non EU immigrants (Russian, Indian) - those who are planning to get a second citizenship and maybe staying for long - are buying (from whom I know personally - maybe 25% already own the property. The rest are not planing to buy in the nearest future. Again all of them are high-skilled professionals so it would not be a general case)

 

[gearoidmm]

The best suggestion that I've heard so far from the vested interests is the one reported in the Indo today. The construction industry have suggested that VAT should be cut on new builds for FTBs.

So then, the government cuts VAT rates by 10% on new builds, the amount of money it therefore gets from each sale is reduced by 30-40,000. However, FTBs are still able to borrow the same amount as before so house prices don't actually fall and the builder gets to pocket the difference.

And the Indo reports this like it's a good idea for buyers. Vomit

 

[bearishbull]

On todays last word on today fm they had an economist from one of the estate agents (name was jeff tucker). He was telling people concerned about stamp duty changes that whatever happens to stamp duty in budget prices will probably go higher in january as theres pent up demand as a result of people waiting after mc dowells comments etc. Basically he was saying prices rose 15% over last year and to buy now or prices will be higher in january! , vested interest trying to keep the lemmings buying. There was no one on to counter his pronouncements.

 

[Open_Window]

And the Indo reports this like it's a good idea for buyers. Vomit

Well it looks like we are in the run up boom in kite sales with all this talk of helping FTBs. Suddenly the FTBers are most worthy charity. Its not lost on me and hopefully other that its the vested interest who are crying crocodile tears, these all who have screwed the FTBers them left right and center in the past helped by tax scheme after tax scheme to make sure they could accumulate at blitzkreg speed.

Little Red Ridding Hood knows best! Beware the wolf in sheep clothing (sorry for a bit of metaphor mixing).

THe market is the market right, live by the sword and die by the sword? Obviously the vested interest aren;t to happy about be plucked from their lofty positions on the pyramid right now....Hmmm anyone wanna buy a house?

 

[gearoidmm]

This article from London on the same theme - lenders are loosing standards by increasing salary multiples to help peolpe get nicer houses
Mortgage lenders under fire for offering four-and-a-half times salary

Ian Bates, head of marketing at Bank of Ireland, said rising property prices, which have doubled in a decade, had prompted the change.He said: 'We made the change so that young people do not have to resort to a horrible one-bed flat in a bad area.
'This means they can buy a nicer home in a leafy suburb if they want to. With the £250,000, many young people were banging their heads against the wall.'

So they increase the money chasing the same houses so prices rise and the banks make more money at the expense of the poor guys with the 40 year mortgages... sounds familiar.

 

[Open_Window]

'We made the change so that young people do not have to resort to a horrible one-bed flat in a bad area.
Mortgage lenders under fire for offering four-and-a-half times salary

What utter utter rubbish (or spin) they're all playing the sympathy card, Bertie got their first. Oh pity the banks who decided to let loose and run against professional practice and lend wrecklessly and thus being the major contributor in the Irish House Bubble, oh the poor banks they were only doing the right thing.... nothing to do with massive profit, oh no, nothing to do with being some of the most profitable banks in the EU, oh no..... no no ...

 

[Silvester]

Hi y'all, first time poster. I have just spent the best part of my afternoon reading the forum and am more confused than ever! We're living in London and I am desperate to buy a long-term base in Ireland. No sooner do I read a post saying prices are going down, which is indeed true in the cases linked, than I read that they will shoot up again! So, a bit of a rollercoaster for someone who wants to buy.

I've been looking at 2 particular developments since spring -Marina Village in Malahide and Corr Castle in Howth/Sutton. Marina Village last spring were asking arount the 580/90K mark, now they're asking aro 650 (3 bed twnhse). Corr Castle, for a 2 bed (not that you can swing a cat in the 2nd so-called bedroom), were asking aro 590k last Spring, I know one went for 612, now they're asking around the 650k mark. They seem to jump 50k per quarter regardless. And of course the ea won't tell you what they sold for.

Are the price reductions very localised, iow is it very much to do with location, do some developments just keep commanding ever-increasing prices? Having dealt with some very arrogant eas, who bellow that the price stated is only the starting price (this was in spring), is it now the case in Dublin that one can offer below the figure quoted without being laughed out of it/patronised? Would really welcome any comments on this.
Will we really face another hike in prices come Spring 2007?

 

[howstrange]

On todays last word on today fm they had an economist from one of the estate agents (name was jeff tucker). He was telling people concerned about stamp duty changes that whatever happens to stamp duty in budget prices will probably go higher in january as theres pent up demand as a result of people waiting after mc dowells comments etc. Basically he was saying prices rose 15% over last year and to buy now or prices will be higher in january! , vested interest trying to keep the lemmings buying. There was no one on to counter his pronouncements.

I heard it too and nearly got sick! The guy was from Hooke and McDonald. These guys dont give a toss about FTB's and if they have to keep getting more and more into debt for bigger mortgages then so be it!! They are doing their v best to keep scaring naive FTB's back into the mindset of "Buy now or else...........". I am a potential FTB and hearing all this makes my blood boil! Anton Savage didnt even put it up to him just went along with what he said. Not one mention of IR, affordability or anything else!! Basically he said house prices are going to go up again in Jan becasue all the FTB's who were waiting for a stamp duty change are going to start flooding back into the market! Thats it. End of story! I like all other FTB's would like a place of my own but just cannot afford it in Dublin even though i am in a v good job with a decent wage! I genuinely dont want a crash but there is no other way genuine affordabilty for anything other than a box in commuterville is going to happen! Anyway end of rant!

 

[howstrange]

Hi y'all, first time poster. I have just spent the best part of my afternoon reading the forum and am more confused than ever! We're living in London and I am desperate to buy a long-term base in Ireland. No sooner do I read a post saying prices are going down, which is indeed true in the cases linked, than I read that they will shoot up again! So, a bit of a rollercoaster for someone who wants to buy.

I've been looking at 2 particular developments since spring -Marina Village in Malahide and Corr Castle in Howth/Sutton. Marina Village last spring were asking arount the 580/90K mark, now they're asking aro 650 (3 bed twnhse). Corr Castle, for a 2 bed (not that you can swing a cat in the 2nd so-called bedroom), were asking aro 590k last Spring, I know one went for 612, now they're asking around the 650k mark. They seem to jump 50k per quarter regardless. And of course the ea won't tell you what they sold for.

Are the price reductions very localised, iow is it very much to do with location, do some developments just keep commanding ever-increasing prices? Having dealt with some very arrogant eas, who bellow that the price stated is only the starting price (this was in spring), is it now the case in Dublin that one can offer below the figure quoted without being laughed out of it/patronised? Would really welcome any comments on this.
Will we really face another hike in prices come Spring 2007?

Anyones guess!! Doesnt look like it at the moment but when you are living in a country run by property developers and vested interests, anything is possible! In theory prices shouldnt go up but the above mentioned will do their v best to keep this party going! I wish i knew the answer to your question!

 

[whathome]

Corr Castle in Howth/Sutton. Corr Castle, for a 2 bed (not that you can swing a cat in the 2nd so-called bedroom), were asking aro 590k last Spring, I know one went for 612, now they're asking around the 650k mark.

This 2 bed in Corr Castle was asking €600,000 in Feb:
[broken link removed]

but the market in Dublin rose by at least 10% between Feb and June so you would expect the latest price to be at least €660,000. These two have been on sale for the past few months now at €650,000 - certainly no jump this quarter.

1. [broken link removed]=
2. [broken link removed]=

in fact the seller of no.2 (11 Corr Castle) above must be getting frustrated because they've recently put it on with a second estate agent:
[broken link removed]=

and this 3 bed has been reduced from €950,000


Down to €895,000
[broken link removed]

Expect to see those 2 beds currently at 650k come down in price over the next few weeks, they've been on the market for months now.
Hope that helps

 

[beattie]

I heard it too and nearly got sick! The guy was from Hooke and McDonald. These guys dont give a toss about FTB's and if they have to keep getting more and more into debt for bigger mortgages then so be it!! They are doing their v best to keep scaring naive FTB's back into the mindset of "Buy now or else...........". I am a potential FTB and hearing all this makes my blood boil! Anton Savage didnt even put it up to him just went along with what he said. Not one mention of IR, affordability or anything else!! Basically he said house prices are going to go up again in Jan becasue all the FTB's who were waiting for a stamp duty change are going to start flooding back into the market! Thats it. End of story! I like all other FTB's would like a place of my own but just cannot afford it in Dublin even though i am in a v good job with a decent wage! I genuinely dont want a crash but there is no other way genuine affordabilty for anything other than a box in commuterville is going to happen! Anyway end of rant!

Its incredible what passes for decent journalism in this country. It's a pity there can't be class actions taken (like in the good old US of A) in the event of things going pear shaped against VI's who spout this manure knowing that they will pocket an extra fat bonus as their profits increase. Thank god Bertie will do something about it......

 

[StoppedClock]

Apart from the office furniture - the 65k probably covers their brand, their current client list, their lease (you'd be paying their rent) and their wage bill (eek!). 65k for a going concern seems like fire sale.

Main Street, Swords,
North Co. Dublin Retail Unit For Sale

Sale Price: €65,000

Floor Area: 1,000 sq. feet (93 sq. metres)

 

[Sarsfield]

like i said transfer of wealth from young to old

To transfer wealth from yourself, you need to have wealth in the first place. Now tell me where young people get wealth from in order to transfer it to the old.

That phrase is pure soundbite, no substance.

we're losing buckets upon buckets of manufacturing jobs that are being "replaced" with low paid service jobs

Manufacturing employment is actually rising according to the CSO

[broken link removed]