fatmanknows
Registered User
- Messages
- 53
The Master Bedroom looks quite cosy albeit needing a wee paint touch up.
- Status
The Master Bedroom looks quite cosy albeit needing a wee paint touch up.
CelloPoint
Registered User
- Messages
- 75
I would add to that anecdotal tone, in that I have noticed a lot of houses for sale around ranelagh/rathmines. I cycle down palmerstown road every day, and as you are going towards the canal, you will see about 12-15 houses for sale. To my knowledge, a large number of these houses are pre-63 rental properties given their general shabiness, buzzers outside the houses, and bicycles locked up in the gardens. Having said this, some of them have been sold very quickly indeed! Perhaps trader-uppers? Or some investor with a massive inferiority complex, whereby he must be able to tell all his friends that he has a house in D6 (though probably on interest only).
Previously on this thread, I predicted that houses in the D4/D6 area would not be affected so much. Now though, I'm beginning to iterate on my thoughts of the extent to which D4/D6 properties will be spared from the carnage. No doubt commuterland will be hit first and hardest, but I would say we're on course for a 20% drop by summer 2007 in established suburbs such Terenure, Rathgar, Clontarf, Blackrock, etc.
To reiterate my earlier prediction: Commuterland to crash literally overnight - 40% drops by xmas are on the cards.
howstrange
Registered User
- Messages
- 12
On myhome.ie, an apt in the Old Chococlate Factory went on sale for €585K about 2 weeks ago. Now on sale for €550K. Obviously got a lot of phone calls!!! Outrageous selling price anyway.
In Inchicore, there are now 9 apts for sale in the Tramyard some of these have been there for 3 months! 207 houses for sale in Lucan compared to about 150 a couple of months ago.
It seems to me that a lot of supply is building up and its not confined to certain areas!
In Inchicore, there are now 9 apts for sale in the Tramyard some of these have been there for 3 months! 207 houses for sale in Lucan compared to about 150 a couple of months ago.
It seems to me that a lot of supply is building up and its not confined to certain areas!
P
phoenix_n
Guest
W
walk2dewater
Guest
Doubt it. 2 reasons why this market is still a good way from rolling over:
(1) Sentiment, i.e. willingness to borrow and belief in "owning", remains solidly bullish.
(2) Capacity to borrow remains high, yes even with ECB at 3.5% by Dec.
(3) Capacity to juggle unsustainable debt levels is high.
Do you really think those Ashbourne, Kildare, Drogheda, Arklow commuters are persuing the rental adds, considering moving into Dublin, closer to work and reclaiming their lives?? No, they're still far far away from putting the commuter house up for sale. They'll burn the furniture and stay in eating rice and beans before letting anything take away their house.
Lads & lassies....after being bullish for years, I have now become a bear (partly in thanks to this thread). I have conducted my own research - there are 2 apartments for sale in the Cammock apartments in Kilmainham one asking 290k and the other asking 285k...
[broken link removed]=
[broken link removed]=
Neither have ANY offers on them and neither have car parking. Last August we sold our apt in this complex for 305k with parking. Parking had cost us 16k initially which brings a like-for-like price = 289k. Therefore even if either of these apts get what they are asking for, that would represent a no gain in the last 12 months...
I realise that this is a very specific example, but considering we had 6 bidders on our place upto very close to our sale price, the lack of any offers at all does not bode well me thinks.
Firefly
[broken link removed]=
[broken link removed]=
Neither have ANY offers on them and neither have car parking. Last August we sold our apt in this complex for 305k with parking. Parking had cost us 16k initially which brings a like-for-like price = 289k. Therefore even if either of these apts get what they are asking for, that would represent a no gain in the last 12 months...
I realise that this is a very specific example, but considering we had 6 bidders on our place upto very close to our sale price, the lack of any offers at all does not bode well me thinks.
Firefly
S
somerset
Guest
I have to agree completely with this sentiment... and as stated before have already left... and thoroughly recommend to anyone.
However I doubt the level of those who decide to depart will be significant enough to impact anything other than their immediate families.... most educated people in their thirties were lucky enough to follow the herd and get on the property ladder ... its probably just those of us that failed too that will leave (or the lucky beggers who have sold up and have decided to feck off)
As an aside, depsite the doom and gloom about property in sydney reported in various newspaper links here, its suprising that it never comes up in a topic of conversation with australians... only among irish friends. i wonder should the property market there (Ireland) tumble, will it cease to be the number one conversation topic?
I concur with W2DW (and not just because I'm currently selling my PPR 
). There have been a few periods on this long property buying binge where the market has gotten a little twitchy. Potential buyers are currently hogging the sidelines wondering if they should really commit to buying an over-priced house in undesirable location. They have heard economists talk about "the crash" of course and are waiting hoping it will happen soon so that they can buy a cheap house. From a market perspective, things have currently flat lined and the market is awaiting a breakout.
With so much bullish sentiment still intact, I wouldn't be surprised if that breakout was to the upside with a major push upwards/buying frenzy in Dec/Jan of this year.
Thus far I haven't heard any stories of forced sales like in the US and Australia. A leading indicator for this would be more credit card and short term borrowing defaults. Some people have overstretched themselves of course but borrowing is still cheap and the banks are still accomodative. No doubt many specuvestors have gotten worried (even panicked) and are trying to offload their Irish property to chase the dream in some far off location but ask the bulk of Irish property owners if they would prefer to buy a home with an affordable mortgage or rent a similar home for a paltry sum and they will invariably say "buy".
Most bubbles end with a large spike - the supposed 'last chance saloon' as even bears convert to bulls thinking they've missed the boat - after which there are no more buyers, the insiders riding the bull market from the beginning disappear and the deck of cards collapses.
). There have been a few periods on this long property buying binge where the market has gotten a little twitchy. Potential buyers are currently hogging the sidelines wondering if they should really commit to buying an over-priced house in undesirable location. They have heard economists talk about "the crash" of course and are waiting hoping it will happen soon so that they can buy a cheap house. From a market perspective, things have currently flat lined and the market is awaiting a breakout.With so much bullish sentiment still intact, I wouldn't be surprised if that breakout was to the upside with a major push upwards/buying frenzy in Dec/Jan of this year.
Thus far I haven't heard any stories of forced sales like in the US and Australia. A leading indicator for this would be more credit card and short term borrowing defaults. Some people have overstretched themselves of course but borrowing is still cheap and the banks are still accomodative. No doubt many specuvestors have gotten worried (even panicked) and are trying to offload their Irish property to chase the dream in some far off location but ask the bulk of Irish property owners if they would prefer to buy a home with an affordable mortgage or rent a similar home for a paltry sum and they will invariably say "buy".
Most bubbles end with a large spike - the supposed 'last chance saloon' as even bears convert to bulls thinking they've missed the boat - after which there are no more buyers, the insiders riding the bull market from the beginning disappear and the deck of cards collapses.
howstrange
Registered User
- Messages
- 12
Ho hum and thrice ho hum.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/09/12/cctrade12.xml
There's not near enough liquidity or trading in a property market for something like a "breakout" to occur. Breakouts occur in the stockmarket where the sheer volume of trading can cause prices to push either side of an historical range. Have you been watching CNBC
Anyway - we already had the spike - anyone who bought property in Spring will be able to tell you all about it
CelloPoint
Registered User
- Messages
- 75
Hilarious!
You are right about peoples' willingness to borrow - they are buying into the celtic tiger dream that has been fed to them. I guess the longer the facade continues, the more minds that are tricked by elaborate marketing, the more couples that believe their bank manager has got them a 'special' deal, the longer the hysteria will continue. The hysteria is self-perpetuating - people on huge mortgages will not contemplate a reversal of economic fortune, because to talk of such eventualities, let alone think about it, would be counter to the dream of living that perfect life of cuff-links, cocktail dresses and champagne flutes (I'm thinking of a certain advert for apartments in Dundrum starting at E435k for a one-bed).
I think the policy campaigning of the opposition parties, once they get in to gear, will annihilate the false celtic dream. The opposition can't start too early, because people have short memories, and you need to save the juicy bits for the last-ditch knock-out 2-3 weeks before the election. Even if people don't cop themselves on to the government mis-management of the economic and social future of this country in the coming months, the annual hysterical Xmas consumerist spree might be enough of a distraction for the bubble to last until the new year.
Me personally, I don't think people are stupid. The people living in Kildare/Meath/Louth are well-educated young people with degrees - they will find out what is going on. The problem is, once enough of them realise it, it will be too late to do anything about it.
This is also true, but in reference to your previous point about sentiment, I think that sentiment works against banks' capacity to borrow. Yes, the money is there (largely due to huge profitability of banks from domestic economic activity and overseas operations), but if a mass-selling hysteria begins, the banks will simply turn off the tap.
This is also true, at the moment and I can see what you're saying. If the banks were to tighten their lending criteria (which they would do in the event of increased economic risk), this would effectively reduce the amount of money available in the economy. So whatever about low interest rates, poor sentiment, or high risk, will decrease the amount of money available.
But to persue the rental ads would be counter to living the perfect life dream. How would you explain to your family and friends that you are going to be a tenant once again? As you rightly put it, you'd sooner live like a dog, than publicly admit to your family/friends/neighbours that you're finding it tough to pay back that plasma hire purchase, that 06 toyota, and those increasing mortgage repayments.
It would be remiss to think that the majority (or even a large proportion) of the 50+ age group are lording it over the rest of us. My parents (in their 50's) are certainly not in this bracket you speak off. I'm sure there are plenty of people on this board with parents in that age group who worked hard to raise many of us 20's/30's during difficult times in the 1970s-80s.
Playing a generational blame-game does everyone a disservice.
WRT over 50s cashing in, you can't blame them.
But buyers are absolutely not immune from blame here. They probably bear more of it in that respect. They paid the prices. They went to the banks and asked for the money when a little collective common sense would have been to not pay the prices. Don't buy at the price if you don't like it. Collective mania on the part of buyers forced prices up. In truth, a lot of people whinged about the cost of property in this country but a significant number of them also paid the prices demanded. No one forced them to borrow all that money and no one - other than themselves - forced them to pay all that money over.
But buyers are absolutely not immune from blame here. They probably bear more of it in that respect. They paid the prices. They went to the banks and asked for the money when a little collective common sense would have been to not pay the prices. Don't buy at the price if you don't like it. Collective mania on the part of buyers forced prices up. In truth, a lot of people whinged about the cost of property in this country but a significant number of them also paid the prices demanded. No one forced them to borrow all that money and no one - other than themselves - forced them to pay all that money over.
B
blindjustice
Guest
if you could warn everyone about a coming crash it would not help in fact it would drive it
There is a bit of a vicious cycle here..
* Yes the over 50s arent solely to blame..
* ..and yes the buyers paid those prices..
* ..but alot of those buyers would have come under huge pressure from families to 'get on the ladder', that pressure can be very hard to resist.
* ..and alot of this pressure came from... the over 50s... cos they had seen their property's value double and triple and most of them seem very happy to peddle the line that this will occour forever.
W
walk2dewater
Guest
I'm not blaming anyone, I'm stating the obvious. Is it not obvious that most over 50s enjoy massive property related wealth because most under 35s are willing to pay $350k for a commuter house?
As David McWilliams once put it, "for every over 50'er teeing off at 9am in the Algarve, there's four under 35s stuck in traffic at the M50 toll bridge".
Sums it up in my view.
Nobody did force the younger age bracket to buy -this is true but speaking as double income, well educated couple no kids the pressure to buy was overwhelming and not just from family. The govt and media have been selling false dreams- you cant lose with property, its in our culture to buy etc. We may be very well-educated but neither of us are economists/business heads so when the crunch time came (early this year) to buy I remembered the old marxist dictum that all markets go through cycles of boom and bust and decided to do some research on property buying. Almost every source I found was bullish along with all my phd holding peers and family. Then I found this site and 2pacs 2band theory (bring him back please!) and happened to watch a documentary on the Tulip bubble in Holland. We then decided to be more cagey with our money. Ea's treated us like dirt when we told them x house wasn't worth x price to us and the pressure was immense to cave and live off 1 salary so the other could pay a huge (to us) mortgage on a proerty with a 1 hour commute.
This notion of a new ireland where status is based on conspicuous consumption is being sold to us as the norm. If you're not a part of it you're somehow a lesser person and are still caught up in the old stifled ireland regardless of your age. This alongside a hefty serving of speculation and naked greed has driven this bubble (as with all others) . And as for those who say the market decides, we are all part of the market and when the pressure is on to enter from all sources it takes a well-informed strong minded(or lucky as in our case) punter to say no. Who among us willingly wants to lose face?
This notion of a new ireland where status is based on conspicuous consumption is being sold to us as the norm. If you're not a part of it you're somehow a lesser person and are still caught up in the old stifled ireland regardless of your age. This alongside a hefty serving of speculation and naked greed has driven this bubble (as with all others) . And as for those who say the market decides, we are all part of the market and when the pressure is on to enter from all sources it takes a well-informed strong minded(or lucky as in our case) punter to say no. Who among us willingly wants to lose face?
P
phoenix_n
Guest
Yes but that spike was Feb-April this year.
- Status