Brexit

[cremeegg]

Much has been said about the downside for Ireland of the potential exit of the UK from the EU.

It seems to me that our civil service should have as its main priority the drafting of a "British-Irish Free trade agreement". To be presented to the Brits for signing as soon as (if) they take the decision to leave, and long before they actually begin the leaving process.

With such a high percentage of our exports and imports coming from Britain it is essential that there is certainty about the regulations that will be in place long before it becomes a live issue.

Ideally the new agreement should replicate the existing EU arrangements on a bilateral basis.

 

[Jim2007]

Well given that protocol 20 would no longer apply, under what provision of the treaties would they be entitled to negotiate and agree such an agreement with a third country?

 

[Gerry Canning]

cremeegg.
If Brexit happens , will we not be bound by EU rules and that means as per jim,we just can,t unilaterally do a {free trade agreement}.

If Brexit happens , UK will have 2 years to sort the issue, ie mostly their issue.

If Brexit happens , nothing to stop UK accepting our imports.

If Brexit happens , UK will be bound on their exports by EU import rules ie.they still tow the eu line.

If Brexit happens , I fear UK will irk the rest and their exports to EU (including Irl) will get tricky.

This Brexit issue in Uk has rumbled since Thatchers time , so I hope UK either embrace EU or float alone, ie get it over with!
It is Uk,s Call.

 

[KlausFlouride]

If Brexit passes (i.e. UK votes to leave), suspect there will be a second referendum within 18 months.

 

[newirishman]

If Brexit passes (i.e. UK votes to leave), suspect there will be a second referendum within 18 months.

Why do you think that? I would be surprised if that would be the case. I'd see a "Brexit" Yes vote as a sign that UK/GB/(England) is secretly longing to get their "Empire" days back; something a long the lines of "The EU is holding us back from being Great again".
Not sure how far the other EU countries would go to re-negotiate the position of the UK in the EU in order to make another vote a useful exercise. Or do you see that Brexit vote just as an (arguably OTT) negotiation tool?

 

[KlausFlouride]

It's just a guess at this point, my thinking is that influential bodies in industry and politics would prefer the UK within the EU. As an example, if English people suddenly need holiday visas to visit France/Spain (not sure if this will come to pass, but not sure if anyone knows in truth), the nuisance factor might favour reversing the initial vote.

 

[Jim2007]

If Brexit passes (i.e. UK votes to leave), suspect there will be a second referendum within 18 months.

Two problems: There is no mechanism in UK law for having any referenda and the second thing is that all that would be on offer is full membership including acceptance of the Euro etc...

I cannot see that flying.

 

[Jim2007]

As an example, if English people suddenly need holiday visas to visit France/Spain (not sure if this will come to pass, but not sure if anyone knows in truth), the nuisance factor might favour reversing the initial vote.

I would imagine the bigger issue is what will happen to all those UK person who have retired abroad. I would expect that those with at least 5 years residence will receive permanent residence status. But what about the payment of their pensions, healthcare etc... Then there are those who have sold up in the past four years and moved to places like Slovenia... will they be forced to return? On top of this there are those person in the UK who's pension entitlement is a combination of EU contributions and UK contributions, who will they fair out.

A lot of issues to be addressed in the event of a BrExit

 

[KlausFlouride]

A lot of issues to be addressed in the event of a BrExit

That's the bizarre thing, there seems to be very little idea of how a post Brexit EU-UK relationship would function. I would have thought those looking to stay in would be pointing out the uncertainties, inconveniences & potential EU backlash of a 'Yes' vote.

 

[odyssey06]

That's the bizarre thing, there seems to be very little idea of how a post Brexit EU-UK relationship would function. I would have thought those looking to stay in would be pointing out the uncertainties, inconveniences & potential EU backlash of a 'Yes' vote.

That's the thing though... the 'remain' side are raising all these uncertainties but it's unknown exactly how they will manifest themselves, so not gaining that much traction.
Even in their worst case scenarios, the 'remain' side point to Switzerland and Norway as current examples of a future UK relationship to the EU. Hardly likely to scare anyone.
The 'leave' side point to Australia and Canada, smaller English-speaking nations than the UK which are managing in a globalised world with trade deals but not as formal members of a political organisation. Somehow the remain side expect people to believe that Australia and Canada can forge their own path but not the UK? It's a very weak argument in favour of remaining.

Also, if the UK remain in the EU, as the 'leave' side point out, you cannot assume that things will continue as they were in the last 5 years. It is not static.

The 'leave' side point out that if you are worried about an EU backlash now, is that really an organisation you want to get further embedded into? Better to get out now and take the consequences that be party to such a petty minded organisation.

Any EU backlash against the UK would likely hurt EU member states more than the UK. Any restriction on trade will hit Ireland massively. Any restriction on tourism will hit France, Spain, Greece, Malta etc. The EU would be cutting off their nose to spite their faces, so I couldn't rule it out entirely!

The UK has been one of the relatively sane voices in the EU. An EU without UK will be to the detriment of Ireland. As an Irishman, I'm very concerned about a Brexit.
If I lived in UK, I suspect I would vote to leave though.
It is a pity that Cameron could not secure a stronger negotiating position from the EU e.g. enough to keep people like Boris Johnson on the 'remain' side. I think that would certainly have swung things to 'remain'.

None of the arguments I have heard in favour of 'remain' have been particularly persuasive, they are very much presenting a negative view of the consequences of exiting and not a very good one at that. It is the leave side that are making a much more persuasive, positive case, for a UK outside the EU.
That's not to say which side is right or wrong, just in terms of presenting their case, the 'leave' side is miles ahead right now.
I suspect it will come down to how optimistic or pessimistic UK voters feel in the run up to the vote. If things are going well at home and only bad news is coming from the continent, then I can see 'leave' winning.

 

[Gerry Canning]

odyssey.

Even if Uk leave EU , they will,
1. Have to conform to EU import regulations = no extra gain for UK.
2. Will have to pay to access EU markets = without having a seat @ decision tables.
.

the (remain) side have not presented the negatives of leaving , what they present are the potential negative consequences of so doing.

Sadly the (remain) side seem to (without facts) present a better future
1. Outside of the biggest free market in the world?
2.That EU will negotiate a better deal for Uk than the EU will for its current members ?
3. That Uk will in some way set the agenda for 500 million others?

I do not think it is not up to anyone to present good arguments why UK should remain ,
Rather it is up to the leave side to present VERY good arguments to justify leaving.

Thus far, most of the leave arguments are heart rather than head , and when it comes to business the head should always win.

I just hope there is a clear winner either for yes or no .

ps.Yes Irl will be hit, but surely since UK exports more pro-rata to us and indeed to rest of the EU than we and rest of EU export to UK,theirs will be the greater pain?

 

[thedaddyman]

I lived and worked in the UK for many years and scarcely a day goes by when I am not talking to someone over there. What surprises me is the amount of people over there who still seem to think they have an empire. If I'm ever on a conference call with someone over there and they mention "the mainland" I sometimes like to remind them that the mainland starts at Calais and they are just on an island like we are. They almost seem surprised to be told this.

Much of the Brexit debate and decision making will be less around economic logic and more about refugees, social welfare payments to foreigners and other emotive topics like that.

 

[Delboy]

Brussels attacks this AM will swing a few more 'Dont knows' over to the Brexit side

 

[so-crates]

Which is daft, the 7-7 bombers were all English, born and bred.

 

[so-crates]

Which is daft, the 7-7 bombers were all English, born and bred.

 

[Gerry Canning]

Delboy,

You are probably correct.
I really don,t see how Brexit in a (free) moving world will give UK citizens any comfort , but fear is a dangerous motivator. eg Mr Trump is thriving on it.
The sad part is that in Uk they have their own {dissidents} , be they reincarnation of IRA or other home bred dangerous nutters..

 

[Slim]

I lived and worked in the UK for many years and scarcely a day goes by when I am not talking to someone over there. What surprises me is the amount of people over there who still seem to think they have an empire. If I'm ever on a conference call with someone over there and they mention "the mainland" I sometimes like to remind them that the mainland starts at Calais and they are just on an island like we are. They almost seem surprised to be told this.

'Mainland' is very much a relative term. Those living on the Aran islands or such like refer to the island of Ireland as 'the mainland' etc. There is, as you say, a belief over there that England won WWs I&II, glossing over the contribution of USA, Russia etc. Much of the Brexit debate is a reaction to UKIP rabble rousing about the cost of UK contributions to EU and 'foreigners swarming' to the UK to avail of liberal social welfare policies, a hangover from (A) Empire/Commonwealth and (B) Labour governments and councils.

 

[Delboy]

Which is daft, the 7-7 bombers were all English, born and bred.

I doubt they saw themselves as 'English'.

Anyways, many in the UK fear they will have no control over their borders whilst they remain in the EU. And the events of the past 18 months have really strengthened that notion for them

 

[odyssey06]

Much of the Brexit debate and decision making will be less around economic logic and more about refugees, social welfare payments to foreigners and other emotive topics like that.

One could legitimately argue that the cost to the UK of such things is an economic issue... and that dismissing legitimate concerns about UK borders is being emotive merely because they are being made by 'little Englanders'.
Besides, who says political decisions have to be based purely on economic logic?

 

[odyssey06]

I do not think it is not up to anyone to present good arguments why UK should remain ,
Rather it is up to the leave side to present VERY good arguments to justify leaving. Thus far, most of the leave arguments are heart rather than head , and when it comes to business the head should always win. I just hope there is a clear winner either for yes or no .

This isn't just about business. Canada might very well benefit economically from being part of the US, or may not.
But I would not argue that it is illegitimate for Canada to wish to remain separate to the US even if it would be economically beneficial for it to join up.
So I think economic issues should be part of the debate, but not the sole arbiter.

Agreed that a clear winner here would be for the best in terms of certainty for the UK and the EU.

ps.Yes Irl will be hit, but surely since UK exports more pro-rata to us and indeed to rest of the EU than we and rest of EU export to UK,theirs will be the greater pain?

Actually, the 'leave' side argue the opposite. If not in the EU, UK will import proportionately less from the EU in the event of a trade war, so stands to benefit from a better balance of payments . I thought I read there was a €5 billion balance of payments difference in favour of the EU - but open to correction on that. Maybe the 'leave' side included contributions to the EU budget as part of the balance of payments?
By leaving CAP, the UK will save €3 billion a year whilst being able to maintain the same level of subsidy to UK farmers.

I think we will be in trouble because of our location and language, economies of scale mean we are tied to Boots, Tesco etc. I don't see continental companies making a push for the Irish market in the event of Brexit. So I think we will be left importing almost the same but paying more for it if there are tariffs \ barriers to trade.