Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

[tecate]

I think this is fair @tecate and the purest expression of your opinion vs. mine?

You went to a lot of work on the whole big mac thing in that post but it's much easier if we leave it at BTC/USD if it's all the same to you.

@letitroll pizza prices are the benchmark of choice for bitcoin

It should definitely be the benchmark for your champion 'economist' Francis Coppola in her suggestion that bitcoin is unlimited (with her direct inference that it has no hard cap) as it can be divided into sats. Must be a scene from the loaves and fishes when she shares out a pizza!

Why? I got the impression from you that this will be all done and dusted pretty soon? 2021 if I'm not mistaken, or within next 12 months?

That confidence is lacking of late. We had the original AAM naysayers declare that it was done for - never to re-emerge circa 2018. The narrative has changed in that there is no longer a timeline applied.
@letitroll has said that he expects quite the hangover. I've already stated that I expect an 80% reset (but from the actual market top this cycle - which I don't believe that we have reached yet. Of course, I could be as far out as a lighthouse - we'll see). Bitcoin has been through these cycles many times already. Eventually, there will be a hangover and the doom and gloom will return - whilst developers and other market participants continue to build quietly. In that bear market, we'll be reminded of the peak figure - just like we were over a number of years with the $20k top, the poor suckers that got caught, etc. None of this will mean that bitcoin is done for - far from it. The story will continue and will be played out on a multi-year basis.
On an all out ban, I have to entertain it as a possibility - but I don't think its a probability on average. Some tough regulation sure - some of it wayward - and a variance between jurisdictions and flip flopping on regulation within jurisdictions. Again, maybe I'll be wrong - we'll have to see.

 

[WolfeTone]

It cost 0.000879 satoshis to buy a Big Mac in April 21.

Today it costs 0.001542.

A sharp increase in price no doubt, but not nearly as dramatic as the thousands and thousands of Big Macs I can no longer eat.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

@tecate FC is no champion of mine. She seems to accept the validity of bitcoin as a currency but erroneously attacks its logistics. I am an out and out Roubinist - bitcoin is not a currency, end of.

 

[tecate]

@tecate FC is no champion of mine. She seems to accept the validity of bitcoin as a currency but erroneously attacks its logistics. I am an out and out Roubinist - bitcoin is not a currency, end of.

So more of a strict wahhabist approach as opposed to FCs more orthadox naysayer viewpoint. Got it!

 

[letitroll]

You went to a lot of work on the whole big mac thing in that post but it's much easier if we leave it at BTC/USD if it's all the same to you.

OK great, no problem @tecate .......you want the easier ride.....a true BTC'er would take the Big Mac purchasing power test...........but I get it stack the deck a little in your favor by adding in some FX volatility, makes sense.............USD it is then with the Fed's target 2% inflation rate ratcheting up our base 2021 $64,888 BTC ATH level each April 13th......I'm being kind here we should probably just use core US CPI in the previous calendar year as the FED has said they'll let CPI run a little hot which I'm guessing means 3% for a couple of years. I'm feeling kind of generous though so no problemo.

Anyway v strange bet were having seen as you seem convinced its gonna drop 80% in value too but hey your the BTC promoter not me.....if I was promoting something as a store of value I certainly wouldn't be going around saying I fully expect it to drop 80%.....but hey different strokes for different folks I guess.

Now to the bet particulars:

(1) The bet (for bragging rights) then to be clear - is Bitcoin will fall 80% from its all time high in the next twelve months (a function of a tightning global conditions on the crypto world) we could argue all day whether that happens or not....lucky we have the price action........ clock starting April 13th 2021.....running to April 13th 2022. $64,888 the level to be used.

(2) BTC will never reach the ATH it achieved on April 13 2021.....inflation adjusted......ever.....or for as long as you/I care to pay attention to this thread.....whichever comes first $64,888 ratcheting up 2% a year each April 13th beginning 2022

Sound good?

 

[tecate]

.you want the easier ride........but I get it stack the deck a little in your favor by adding in some FX volatility, makes sense.............USD it is then with the Fed's target 2% inflation rate ratcheting up our base 2021 $64,888 BTC ATH level each April 13th......I'm being kind here we should probably just use core US CPI in the previous calendar year as the FED has said they'll let CPI run a little hot which I'm guessing means 3% for a couple of years. I'm feeling kind of generous though so no problemo.

stack the deck? I'm not in the slightest bit surprised that you don't get bitcoin. Firstly, you said that it wouldn't ever see ATH ever again. You're coming back after the fact with fine print. On that fine print, inflation is FIATs deal. If you have a problem with it, hop on a Zoom call with Jerome Powell and see if he can call off the stealth tax for a few years. There's no 'stacking the deck'. That bs is on your deal and its one of the fundamental reasons I see a need for bitcoin.

a true BTC'er would take the Big Mac purchasing power test

I've pulled you up previously on your stereo-typing of folk that see value in btc. I don't profess to be a 'true BTC'er' or whatever in the world that is. I'm not sure why on earth you think that I should account for the stealth tax theft that's inherent in the fiat money system. You've confidence in said system - so I guess you'll need to find a way to #cope.

Anyway v strange bet were having seen as you seem convinced its gonna drop 80% in value too

That's the view I stated a couple of weeks back already (and I'm pretty sure somewhere along the line I alluded to a cyclical reset along those lines long before that). The difference is that you believe that it's going to be put on its ass - permanently. That's not my view. Bitcoin has been through several of these cycles already.

but hey your the BTC promoter not me....

I'm not a bitcoin 'promoter'. I simply have an opinion on the subject that differs from yours. You seem to think these cycles are the end of the world for bitcoin - but that just betrays the fact that you don't have an understanding of how this has worked out historically and the rationale behind the cycles. It seems you think that if I wanted to shill bitcoin (which I don't), then I couldn't possibly suggest such a thing. I'm not going to express anything other than my opinion/understanding of it. Secondly, if that's what you think this is about, then the most selfish thing I could possibly do is encourage you and others here in your negative disposition towards btc. The longer this process takes, the greater the potential gains.

Sound good?

I asked you to confirm what you originally claimed - i.e. that bitcoin would NEVER see its April 2021 ATH price ever again. If you have conviction in what you claimed/believe, simply respond with yes, that's what my claim is.

 

[letitroll]

Yes, tecate, Yes

even with USD fiat’s stable in built 2% inflation glide path chipping away at each dollar each year….…you and I won’t be on the planet by the time its loss of purchasing power catches up with the BTC crash and burn that’s happened already this year and is coming down the pipe in subsequent years. Of that I’m certain. So happy to stack your deck as much as you want….because truly it’s one of the safest side bets I’ve ever made. Sound good?

do me a favor fill in your excuses for why BTC isn’t back at or above it’s all time highs at year 1,3,5,10 from now when I turn out to be right. I’ll do Year 1 for you it’s an easy one. Gonna be tricky in 2024, trickier still in 2026 and damn right impossible in 2031 to explain away

Year 1: BTC is volitale, but trends up over time don’t worry it will move higher soon
Year 3: …………
Year 5 …………..
Year 10……

 

[tecate]

Yes, tecate, Yes

Terrific - thank you for confirming.

even with USD fiat’s stable in built 2% inflation glide path chipping away at each dollar each year….…you and I won’t be on the planet by the time its loss of purchasing power catches up with the BTC crash and burn that’s happened already this year and is coming down the pipe in subsequent years. Of that I’m certain.

I guess you're confirming your answer to my other question - which was do you believe that bitcoin is DOA within 6 months. According to your statement above, you're saying that bitcoin is going to be around for many years to come. That's wonderful.

So happy to stack your deck as much as you want….because truly it’s one of the safest side bets I’ve ever made. Sound good?

Bad form to make deck stacking claims. You made your original claim without any such provisos. Just as an aside, bitcoin's current inflation rate is 1.76%. I'm telling you this as clearly you have no idea (or else you wouldn't be making a meal out of your 'deck stacking' claims to begin with). That's the thing with programmable money - all participants know what the rules are from the outset.

fill in your excuses for why....

Yeah, I can kinda see how this is important to you ...albeit maybe not in such a progressive way . If it's all going tits up for bitcoin and you ask for my opinion at that point, I'll surely oblige. You may deem that to be whatever you want at the time - that's up to you to interpret. Regardless of what your interpretation is, to me it will just be my 2 cents satoshis on the subject.

 

[WolfeTone]

core US CPI in the previous calendar year as the FED has said they'll let CPI run a little hot which I'm guessing means 3% for a couple of years

If 2% is their target, why doesn't the FED let CPI run at 2% all the time in the same way that you think they can let it run at 3% for a couple of years?

 

[letitroll]

Terrific - thank you for confirming.

Look forward to watching this play out with you @tecate

 

[letitroll]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1401148964771086337

Bitcoin week in Miami

 

[tecate]

Bitcoin week in Miami

Delighted for you @letitroll that Max threw you a bone - by being Max.

Here's Raoul Pal's perspective on Bitcoin 2021:

"To be fair, my flippant comments about the BTC conference being a bit cringe was a reflection of the media coverage of the more extreme aspects but the truth is the speakers and many of the attendees are some of the smartest, most interesting forward thinkers Ive ever known."

My understanding is that the conference was a success - with 20,000 attendees.

The announcement by El Salvador's President during the conference that the country will become the first nation to make bitcoin legal tender is a positive step. It's a tiny country with a tiny GDP and yet the implications of this move extend beyond the Central American country. It may lead to some changes in the tax treatment of bitcoin. It will be handled by banks internationally in the same way as foreign currency. It will be treated as money under commercial law and cash as per accounting rules.

Salvadorans - 70% of whom don't have access to banking - wake up to this front page of Diario El Salvador this morning ->

That's the real outcome from Bitcoin 2021 in Miami.

 

[letitroll]

@tecate dont be happy, be embarrassed - THIS is El Salvador https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chapters/el-salvador#

 

[tecate]

@tecate dont be happy, be embarrassed - THIS is El Salvador https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chapters/el-salvador#

You think that I should be embarrassed because bitcoin is going to be made available as a fully fledged currency to 6.5 million people - most of whom the banking system just left behind? Absolutely not. Anyone supportive of the bitcoin project can see that this is a good day for Salvadorans. Alex Gladstein of the Human Rights Foundation makes an important distinction ->

https://twitter.com/x/status/1401307793278316552

 

[letitroll]

This is a stunt….by a dictator and human rights abuser….your eating it up. Be embarrassed.

Fully fledged currency - are you off your face, do you know nothing about bitcoin and its capacity to process transactions….…….it will take 25 minutes to pay for a loaf of bread in the shop in El Salvador using BTC….as the BTC ledger slowly tries to clear the transaction at an 8%!!!!! transaction……..all the while the loaf of bread,because of BTC volatility, goes from 20 to 30 to 25 to 35 satoshies. Its a pipe dream.

Your embarrassing yourself @tecate jumping on a dictators bandwagon PR stunt to support your thesis…..and acting as if the people of El Salvador will be using BTC to pay for things in the shops.

 

[WolfeTone]

@tecate dont be happy, be embarrassed - THIS is El Salvador https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2021/country-chapters/el-salvador#

My sense is if it weren't for bitcoin, you would show little concern for the plight of the poor in El Salvador.

You see, bitcoin is actually working in a way that the fiat system has failed in a derisory form.

Is this part of the greatest advancement in human living conditions you were referring to?

crypto.........a USELESS invention (so far) for society at large.......but it is so useful for kidnappers

You have just basically posted an article that implies those caged people were kidnapped.

 

[tecate]

This is a stunt….by a dictator and human rights abuser….your eating it up. Be embarrassed.

Your embarrassing yourself @tecate jumping on a dictators bandwagon PR stunt to support your thesis…

I am in NO way embarrassed. This is a progressive move in line with Gladstein's tweeted comments above. You're screaming about Human Rights when the Human Rights Foundation are supportive of this.

Fully fledged currency - are you off your face

Just what exactly about the phrase 'fully fledged currency' has you perplexed exactly? The move will make bitcoin legal tender in El Salvador will it not?

do you know nothing about bitcoin and its capacity to process transactions….…….it will take 25 minutes to pay for a loaf of bread in the shop in El Salvador using BTC

Now who's embarrassing themselves? A lightning network payment will take somewhere between a couple of miliseconds and up to 60 seconds. And just so that you're up to speed, local people are accepting bitcoin in El Zonte, El Salvador - and have been for some time.

ll the while the loaf of bread,because of BTC volatility, goes from 20 to 30 to 25 to 35 satoshies. Its a pipe dream.

And yet in El Zonte, that's exactly what they are doing. Go figure.

..and acting as if the people of El Salvador will be using BTC to pay for things in the shops.

See above.


And seeing as we are on the theme of embarrassment, do you want to explain why you are supportive of a system that leaves 70% of the citizenry of a country without access to banking? ....and before you claim otherwise, yes, you are supportive of precisely that - as you have summarily dismissed any role for bitcoin or decentralised crypto when the notion has been put to you. Where are your precious bankers in serving the people in that instance?

 

[letitroll]

Now who's embarrassing themselves? A lightning network payment will take somewhere between a couple of miliseconds and up to 60 seconds. And just so that you're up to speed, local people are accepting bitcoin in El Zonte, El Salvador - and have been for some time.

Your making it up, your clueless on this presume thats why you added in the "will" to your lightning network miliseconds transaction comment as cover.....it doesnt exist outside a whitepaper and a few 1,000 nodes........your acting like its ready for implementation in your local coffee shop.....its still a pipe dream.

Dont mispresent lightning.............especially in a week when I see endless crypto people still struggling on twitter, post the crytp crash, to get their crytpo withdrawn to fiat from various exchanges and wallets because the systems cant even cope with this level of activity.....let alone millions of people buying their coffee with crypto

Or as another person put it on lighting:

"The Lightning Network is a boondoggle project that has demonstrated, repeatedly, that it is an impressively bad security risk for its participants, a supremely poor user experience, and a never-ending repetition of the idea that it will be ready in “18 months”."

 

[letitroll]

I should also say - I'm delighted with the El Salvador move............for my thesis........it only hastens the G20 coordinated response when Grade A scumbags like Bukele are climbing into the bed with BTC

 

[tecate]

Your making it up, your clueless on this presume thats why you added in the "will" to your lightning network miliseconds transaction comment as cover.....it doesnt exist outside a whitepaper and a few 1,000 nodes........your acting like its ready for implementation in your local coffee shop.....its still a pipe dream.

I think you're in over your head here.
I'm not making it up. Granted, lightning network has been incredibly slow in its progression and development is ongoing. But back to what I said - precisely as I said, it is being used by a whole host of vendors in El Zonte, El Salvador and has been for some time. It forms the backbone of Jack Mallers startup, Strike. And beyond that, you yourself can send and receive bitcoin using the Breez Wallet within the timeframe I outlined above. Otherwise, I hope to visit in November - so I'll be quite happy to send you a full boots on the ground report then if you'd like.

Dont mispresent lightning.............especially in a week when I see endless crypto people still struggling on twitter, post the crytp crash, to get their crytpo withdrawn to fiat from various exchanges and wallets because the systems cant even cope with this level of activity.....let alone millions of people buying their coffee with crypto

I haven't misrepresented lightning. However, in that very sentence - you have. You go on about things that don't involve lightning - so why even mention them in that context?

"The Lightning Network is a boondoggle project that has demonstrated, repeatedly, that it is an impressively bad security risk for its participants, a supremely poor user experience, and a never-ending repetition of the idea that it will be ready in “18 months”."

Bravo - you found some criticism of lightning network online. And yet, the fact remains. You have not in any way disproven what I stated. If you don't believe me, you can download a breez wallet and put it to the test yourself.

I should also say - I'm delighted with the El Salvador move............for my thesis........it only hastens the G20 coordinated response when Grade A scumbags like Bukele are climbing into the bed with BTC

I'm delighted for you - but I guess we should probably wait and see how it all unfolds. What I'm not so delighted about is that you'd like to see an option being taken away from 4.5 million unbanked people - who would go back to being ignored and without options by the system you say is all hunky dory.