Bitcoin in a hyperbolic bubble

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BTC at $30,000 not good……., BTC $8,000 really not good…
Bitcoin spending 4 straight months above 30k is pretty great progress from my point of view, considering it spent the previous 11 years well below that, or what average price were you expecting in the first half of 2021 last year?
 
@letitroll , The only commentary that first rambling rant of a paragraph deserves is to make it clear that you've switched from one bad faith argument to the next, and the next, etc. , in order to find a way to work back to the original decision you made way back when to dismiss any notion of decentralised crypto. On that basis, its poor form to resort to the 'cult' tar and feathering. The greater irony of course is
that the cult like behaviour is thus demonstrated on your part . Presumably you attended the same Wahhabi school as his dukeness.


I’ll stick to commenting on the price of bitcoin with you fellas there’s no point doing anything else - maybe we can all agree on the irrefutable property of numbers….BTC = $64,888 good, BTC at $30,000 not good……., BTC $8,000 really not good…..BTC $100 oh oh spagheitto
Apart from our differing predictions, I'm not sure how you believe that $30,000 is not good. Ask his Dukeness if he considers $30,000 bad for an asset he believes is worth nothing - and one that he reminded everyone repeatedly over the course of 3 years that it would never see $20,000 ever again. As for $100, you can only dream my dear @letitroll .
 
Inflation is a decrease of purchasing power for real world goods and services for a given unit of a monetary instrument - FFS lads…..it isn’t that hard lads…your scaring me…….if its two sea shells (monetary instrument) to buy one cow (real world item) one year…..and a year later it costs four sea shells to buy the same cow……..the inflation rate is 100% in sea shells :rolleyes:
 
What did you think of the Miami declaration of faith, as posted by @letitroll?

If its the max Keiser part then this is nothing short of what he has been doing for 10yrs+ Keiser is somewhat eccentric and prone to dramatic outbursts that make for great entertainment.
He is also highly articulate and more than capable of cutting through the garb.

Here he is in more reserved form amongst more familiar company, again he steals the show.

Kilkenomics 2012
 
@Wolfie: the issue is that Dukey wants to gloss over the lot and not make the distinction between the two as it better suits his narrative. If he said simply that outside of its baked in inflation, bitcoin suffers from volatility, then that's reasonable. Even though I believe without doubt he knows well the reason why bitcoin needs to go through this multi-year period of volatility, he didn't have to acknowledge that.
It's bad faith argument, pure and simple.
 
I'm not sure how you believe that $30,000 is not good.

SERIOUSLY -your going to make me type it out…………..say that with a straight face to people who bought BTC at $64,888….what a little less than 8 weeks ago….with it dropping to $30k…..thats a 52% loss of purchasing power……or a 52% BTC inflation rate in just 8 WEEKS!!…..a 12 MONTH total 2% inflation rate in fiat dont seem so bad now?
 
say that with a straight face to people who bought BTC at $64,888….

It's a simple fact that everyone who has bought and held bitcoin ANYTIME in the last 11yrs, aside from the 8 week window you refer to, is in positive territory on their holding.
There is simply no comparison between a 34,000% increase over 11 yrs versus a 50% decline in 8 weeks.
If, IF, you happen to be someone who bought for the first time at the peak, and 8 weeks later you are 50% down then that is unfortunate. But if you are buying bitcoin in 2021 and are not aware of its volatility, not aware of all the FUD then what can one say?
If on the other hand you did buy bitcoin for the first time in its decade + existence at the $64,000 peak AND you were AWARE of its volatility, the FUD etc, then what?...should we shed some tears? Boo-hoo!
Or why not, with a straight face, tell people to grow a pair and take responsibility for what they choose to do with their own money?
 
Excuses, excuses, excuses - as mentioned I'll be focusing on the price with you guys from now on and look forward to my thesis playing out in the price in the next 12 months & beyond...................hopefully we can agree that the price of BTC in USD listed publicly on Coinbase is the ultimate bell weather for this discussion we're having. You're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own price quote. Look forward to visiting as the road twists and turns ahead. Hope you both stay lucky and if your're both as committed as you sound on here. I hope you're able to trade around this thing such that your purchasing power & financial health is a good as or better than it is now. Chat soon.
 
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Inflation is a decrease of purchasing power for real world goods and services for a given unit of a monetary instrument - FFS lads…..it isn’t that hard lads…your scaring me…….if its two sea shells (monetary instrument) to buy one cow (real world item) one year…..and a year later it costs four sea shells to buy the same cow……..the inflation rate is 100% in sea shells :rolleyes:
I didn't even go there as I wanted to tackle Dukey's smoke and mirror routine - but Wolfie had the two of you bang to rights. Even the Wahhabi high priest Roubini wouldn't dare suggest that bitcoin is inflationary! - he'd be moaning about it being largely deflationary.

SERIOUSLY -your going to make me type it out…………..say that with a straight face to people who bought BTC at $64,888….what a little less than 8 weeks ago….with it dropping to $30k…..thats a 52% loss of purchasing power……or a 52% BTC inflation rate in just 8 WEEKS!!…..a 12 MONTH total 2% inflation rate in fiat dont seem so bad now?
Wolfie has already called you out on this - and I'm doing the same. Over the course of three years of discussion, we had his Dukeness and others cherry picking the market tops and aping at it. If you want to go year on year - 1 Jan to 1 Jan - fine. I think we've probably got another 6 months + in this bull market. When it ends, I'll be pulling you up on that nonsense. On average - year on year - bitcoin has appreciated over 200% pa since its foundation.
As regards the feigned concern for those who bought at the very peak, I'm not having any of it. You couldn't give a fiddlers about them - lets be honest. People make their own decisions in this life and they should live with them. Secondly, the majority of folk in at that top were those who were in with leverage. 90% of leveraged trades are losers. All those guys are doing is distorting the market for the rest of us. If anyone else went in without leverage, I would assume that they sized their position to a level they were comfortable with. It would also be wise if they're dollar cost averaging. If not, that's on them. If they aped in following Elon and aped out following Elon, then they did so without a full understanding of what they were investing in. Again, that's on them.
The bitcoin market is a market that trades without safety breaks (as happens with stock markets) and it trades 24/7 - 365. There is no Fed buying/selling bonds or stocks , etc - and influencing the market in that way. The market suffered a major shock the other week and stood up to it just fine. There are no bailouts in crypto. People can take it or leave it on that basis.

hopefully we can agree that the price of BTC in USD listed publicly on Coinbase is the ultimate bell weather for this discussion we're having. You're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own price quote.

Back up the bus. I spent a lot longer with this today than I wanted - so I'm not in any humour to give you a free pass. There are two options. You take the average ATH price - as is widely available online....OR...you go with the leading exchange in terms of ATH in April and the next market top (whether that be Coinbase or another exchange next time). This is not like centralised markets - there is no one point of reference for pricing. You can pick either - I don't mind - but you're not having it both ways.


This TV show snippet from 1995 is pertinent to this ongoing discussion...

 
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You are measuring the inflation (deflation) rate against USD or Euro.
@tecate is measuring it, as I understand it, at the rate of increasing supply.
They are two different measurements so cannot be compared.
This is getting so silly. Of course they are two different measurements. @tecate called his inflation which it patently is not, see Investopedia definition. Neither of you are going to admit the error so I will leave it at that and spare your blushes.
Bitcoin had deflation of near enough 100% p.a. from its purchase of pizza at 5000 a piece until its ATH. It has had 200% p.a. inflation since then. (BTW nothing to do with USD but measured against price of pizzas in bitcoin)
@tecate shrugs this off as a “voyage of price discovery” which he says has still a long way to play out. Maybe @tecate is enjoying the roller coaster thrills and spills but I ask you do you think it is right to cheerlead the poor people of El Salvador, and they are poor, on to this voyage In the middle of its roller coaster phase?
 
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but I ask you do you think it is right to cheerlead the poor people of El Salvador, and they are poor, on to this voyage?

Ok, I think is a pertinent question to ask. You are correct that El Salvadorians are a poor people, mostly.
But why are they poor, why does poverty seem to reign in perpetuity?
@letitroll likes to inform us that bitcoins only case use is for ransomware, while simultaneously posting pictures of El Salvadorians locked up by their government after being kidnapped.
What sort of bankrupt, failed system perpetuates poverty amongst its people to the point that its central authorities need to sweep (kidnap) them from the streets?
To begin with, a system that has marginalised, stigmatised and effectively disenfranchised its people from the political, economic and financial fabric of that country.

I'm not suggesting for a nano-second that bitcoin is the panecea to all of this. But what it may do, if some are willing to engage, is for the first time probably in their lives offer poor people a stake on property. It is digital property, but it is their stake. This is psychologically very important. It is something that the financial and political world has failed derisorily to do generation after generation - offer them a stake in society.

@letitroll wants us to believe that the fiat system has coincided with the greatest advancement in living standard in the history of human kind. Many of us here can testify to that. But try telling that with a straight face to the El Salvadorians holed up in over-crowded prisons. For the age old crime of poverty. Some advancement!

So there are risks for poor people in El Salvador getting involved in bitcoin. But how much poorer will they be if bitcoin returns to zero than had they not involved?
On the other hand, if bitcoin shoots for the stars, then imagine for the first time in history poor people having some leverage for their own well-being and affairs.

The alternative, not buying bitcoin, seems to say to El Salvadorians - you are poor, you will stay poor, and as unfortunate as that is, that is the way it is and will be.
 
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@WolfeTone So the poor people of El Salvador have nothing to lose, so why not have a punt on bitcoin? Is that your financial advice? Sadly, this lotto mentality exists here in Ireland where it is known that the most avid lotto enthusiasts come from the poorer sections of society. Are you suggesting that they too should diversify somewhat into bitcoin?

As to who would be mug enough to buy bitcoin at its ATH given all the FUD, I seem to recall a contributor to AAM getting very hot and steamy when it hit $60k.

Note that daily turnover in btc is $10bn. So in the 8 weeks since ATH the entire market cap has turned over. It is not implausible that the majority of today's bitcoin holdings are standing at a loss. This looks like the ultimate Ponzi scheme. When the music stops very few of those caught in the headlights will have made money on bitcoin.
 
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so why not have a punt on bitcoin.

Except its not really lotto-esque is it?
I bought my €2.50 euro millions for the Bank Holiday weekend on Friday. Its prospective value of €130m crashed to zero by 9pm that day. Never to return to its all time high of €2.50.
It's BOHA now.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has a negative return for 8 weeks out of last 11yrs.
There is simply no comparison.
 
Your advice to poor El Salvadorians that "what have you got to lose and who knows it could be you", is very lotto-esque.

Yeh, if you apply it in such a simplified context.
You could say the same about stocks, property, gold, or any other asset class. But we know the value of such asset classes do not generally expire at the close of business.
We also know that is the same for bitcoin.
 
This is getting so silly. Of course they are two different measurements. @tecate called his inflation which it patently is not, see Investopedia definition. Neither of you are going to admit the error so I will leave it at that and spare your blushes.
Dukey, you know perfectly well that what you started with was disingenuous. You know perfectly well that the point you picked this up at was a discussion of pre-programmed-in inflation in the case of bitcoin's monetary policy and intended inflation as part of fiat monetary policy.
Not only did you not explain the difference with what you bolted on to that - but you are then cherry picking market tops and bottoms and timeframes to suit. That's not on. On average, bitcoin's buying power has increased at a rate of 200%+ per year - over the course of its existence.

@tecate shrugs this off as a “voyage of price discovery” which he says has still a long way to play out.
Others might not understand it but I know well that you do - as you've spent four years on the topic. So lets go through it. Step into Satoshi's shoes. You have a decentralised currency - you're not going to peg it to the USD - as that's going to completely defeat the purpose. You're not going to back it or peg it to a commodity - as again, that's going to leave it prone to centralisation, manipulation and control. You release it to the world as a decentralised fixed supply currency. The finite supply is unrivaled by any other financial asset but at that embryonic point, it's just code - nobody has any appreciation for it. Furthermore, you want to ensure that distribution is fair upon initial issuance. So - it's effectively given away in return for mining.
Now, explain to us how there can be any other route to its maturity other than a multi-year process of price discovery that is directly related to adoption - and thus, demand? Tell us how this could have been done differently please?
I'm quite happy to acknowledge that its volatility is a major bug bear. However, you're trying to suggest that there's no logic to it. If that's the case, then step up and explain what he/she/they should have done differently please.

It is not implausible that the majority of today's bitcoin holdings are standing at a loss. This looks like the ultimate Ponzi scheme. When the music stops very few of those caught in the headlights will have made money on bitcoin.
There's a couple of things here. You've fallen foul of this before. Over the course of three years, you constantly referred to the market top of $20,000 and the poor hapless craturs (someone please think of the children!) that bought at the top. Well, was all of that commentary for nothing? If so, who's to say that what you're going on with right now is also for nothing?
Secondly, between where we are right now and $60,000, it seems like a lot of that can be accounted for by leveraged traders. I don't have a grain of sympathy for them. All they do is distort the market for the rest of us. Next up, you and others here have moaned about Elon moving the market. Well, you can't have it both ways. These are the people that both aped in and aped out of the market based on Elon's tweets!
If someone bought high but wasn't greedy and sized their position correctly, they're not going to be wiped out. Furthermore, if they've weighed this up and have a level of conviction in it, they have the option of maintaining their position.
Lastly, nobody is holding a gun to anyone's head. People have the choice to do what they want. However, they have to take personal responsibility for their choices.

Your advice to poor El Salvadorians that "what have you got to lose and who knows it could be you", is very lotto-esque.
Maybe @tecate is enjoying the roller coaster thrills and spills but I ask you do you think it is right to cheerlead the poor people of El Salvador, and they are poor, on to this voyage In the middle of its roller coaster phase?
Turning to the battle for San Salvador...
It's kind of on the same lines. They're still going to be using dollars. The difference is that should they find a need or a use case to use bitcoin, they can. What could possibly be wrong with that? Should they not be free to make up their own minds? 70% of them don't have bank accounts because the banking system has failed them. They all have family in the US sending money back home. They're being screwed royally on remittances. So maybe they use a bitcoin-based solution? Surely, you can't be opposed to that?

There's a whole host of reasons why this could possibly be a savvy move for El Salvador and far from the 'stunt' that @letitroll claimed. The following is a long form medium post on the subject - it's the best piece of analysis I've seen on this so far and I'd recommend it to anyone who is interested in this decision by El Salvador.

El Salvador, Dollarisation, and Bitcoin — What to Expect From Here

And yes, the guy comes from a pro-btc viewpoint. However, much of what he raises is insightful - so there's value in it regardless of what views you approach it with.
 
Dukey, you know perfectly well that what you started with was disingenuous. You know perfectly well that the point you picked this up at was a discussion of pre-programmed-in inflation in the case of bitcoin's monetary policy and intended inflation as part of fiat monetary policy.
Not only did you not explain the difference with what you bolted on to that - but you are then cherry picking market tops and bottoms and timeframes to suit. That's not on. On average, bitcoin's buying power has increased at a rate of 200%+ per year - over the course of its existence.
Disingenuous? Playing a "gotcha"? Maybe. Inflation is an interplay between the supply and demand for money in terms of its utility which is usually as a medium of exchange. It is an interesting subject in its own right but I will not pursue it further here. I calculate the increase in btc purchasing power in terms of pizzas at over 400% p.a. which, as I said, is to all intents a deflation of 100% p.a.
Now, explain to us how there can be any other route to its maturity other than a multi-year process of price discovery that is directly related to adoption - and thus, demand? Tell us how this could have been done differently please?
I was questioning the cheerleading of poor El Salvadorians on to the roller coaster, long before it reaches maturity.
There's a couple of things here. You've fallen foul of this before. Over the course of three years, you constantly referred to the market top of $20,000
I admit that I have been on balance spectacularly wrong on the voyage of price discovery but my day will come
As you say, written with a heavy genuflection to the cult. But partly informative for all that. A few takeaways to support the Satanic (or is it Wahaabi'ist) view.
Lightning network - I am not at all au fait with the micro working of Lightning but @letitroll seems far from convinced. Neither does the link which suggests that El Salvadorians are in for a "trial by fire" on this one. This on top of the roller coaster ride. Do they really deserve this?

This will lead to a big boost in foreign investment into EL Sal. Bukele mused that only 1% of btc market cap would increase El Sal GDP by 25%. Economists have already dismissed this populist's amateur economics as nonsense. The link suggests that making bitcoin legal tender will make it free of CGT and that will boost investment. I was not convinced.

The link hails this as the "greatest development ever" for bitcoin but also notes that btc will "sink or swim" as a result of this move. I think it will have game changing effects, already has, just as El Musk had, but my money (in €) would be that this will so not deliver that it will bring forward BOHA day. For example, let's say that it is "successful" in it immediate stated purpose and the poor people of El Sal become awash with btc and then it falls to that ATH-80% that you predict, the outcry world wide at the "monetary rape" of a poor nation will be deafening.
Bitcoin is down over 15% since the announcement which the link describes as "moving sideways" which I suppose in terms of the current roller-coaster phase of the "voyage of price discovery" is an accurate description.

Finally the link makes a big play of "seigniorage" which it portrays as the US grabbing a lot of EL Sal product by issuing dollars that cost them nothing. This is a grotesque misrepresentation. El Sal are not compelled to hold US$. They can switch it for gold or more importantly they can switch it for goods and services at any time of their choosing - this is a debt from the US government, not a mere digital entry on the Fed's ledger. The solution to this seigniorage pillage? El Sal should get into bitcoin mining, before the end of this epoch of course (epoch ends at next halving, just like the Bible the cult has its own astrophysical terminology). Givus a break!
 
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Disingenuous? Playing a "gotcha"? Maybe. Inflation is an interplay between the supply and demand for money in terms of its utility which is usually as a medium of exchange. It is an interesting subject in its own right but I will not pursue it further here. I calculate the increase in btc purchasing power in terms of pizzas at over 400% p.a. which, as I said, is to all intents a deflation of 100% p.a.
Like I said, on average bitcoin's buying power has increased 200%+ per year since its release.

I was questioning the cheerleading of poor El Salvadorians on to the roller coaster, long before it reaches maturity.
I'll take your lack of a response to mean that you understand well why bitcoin has to be volatile over the next few years and that you have no suggestion as to how Satoshi could have designed the digital currency such that this wouldn't be a transitional feature.

Lightning network - I am not at all au fait with the micro working of Lightning but @letitroll seems far from convinced. Neither does the link which suggests that El Salvadorians are in for a "trial by fire" on this one. This on top of the roller coaster ride. Do they really deserve this?
@letitroll wasn't even aware of its existence so hard to fathom how his opinion on it matters. Other than that, he's referring to its use at scale - and there's only ever one way in reality to put that to the test. If we were to take your view, then nothing would ever be put into production. As I write this, an email has just hit my inbox with a notification that Bottlepay - a lightning network-based payments app similar to Mallers' Strike but based out of the UK - has just gone live - facilitating instant Euro/GBP to BTC payments.
As for the 'do they really deserve this' query - you're asking do Salvadoreans deserve choice? I would say that we all deserve choice and they're going to be further on than the rest of us which is a hell of a turn around given that today, the conventional banking system has shut the door on their faces.


The link hails this as the "greatest development ever" for bitcoin but also notes that btc will "sink or swim" as a result of this move. I think it will have game changing effects, already has, just as El Musk had, but my money (in €) would be that this will so not deliver that it will bring forward BOHA day. For example, let's say that it is "successful" in it immediate stated purpose and the poor people of El Sal become awash with btc and then it falls to that ATH-80% that you predict, the outcry world wide at the "monetary rape" of a poor nation will be deafening.
"Monetary rape" Duke, really? Is this why the banking system has turned their noses up at them - they don't want to 'monetarily rape them'? You've defaulted back to cherrypicking market tops and shorter term timelines when its proven that over the course of its 12 odd years or so, bitcoin has appreciated by 200%+ pa.

Bitcoin is down over 15% since the announcement which the link describes as "moving sideways" which I suppose in terms of the current roller-coaster phase of the "voyage of price discovery" is an accurate description.

And once again, you're using volatility as a crutch - even though you completely side-stepped a discussion of why its necessary - and couldn't even begin to suggest why it isn't necessary or how it could be avoided as a transitional feature of the bitcoin protocol.

Finally the link makes a big play of "seigniorage" which it portrays as the US grabbing a lot of EL Sal product by issuing dollars that cost them nothing. This is a grotesque misrepresentation. El Sal are not compelled to hold US$. They can switch it for gold or more importantly they can switch it for goods and services at any time of their choosing - this is a debt from the US government, not a mere digital entry on the Fed's ledger. The solution to this seigniorage pillage?
There is no 'grotesque misrepresentation'. He simply outlines the pro's and con's - of which seigniorage is one.

El Sal should get into bitcoin mining, before the end of this epoch of course (epoch ends at next halving, just like the Bible the cult has its own astrophysical terminology). Givus a break!
Insert 'old man yells at cloud' meme.
 
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