Are we heading into a global recession?

[noproblem]

I don't think there'll be a global societal collapse but I do think we are heading into a prolonged period of stagnant growth or recession with a strong risk of along period of Stagflation.
Climate Change will also be a major factor as floods and droughts increase food costs, political instability and migration. It will also increase insurance costs for everything since all insurance prices are linked through the reinsurance market.

As usual that will cause inconvenience in the developed world and famine, starvation and death amongst the bottom billion

Your take on it comes across as saying, we'll have more weather tomorrow.

 

[Purple]

@noproblem, I'm not sure what you mean by that.

My take on it is that there will be a major global recession and that the debt overhang will be a big problem.

The fact that the second largest economy in the world is closer to a Command Economy than it has been in 30 years will also be a major factor. I think China is, in the medium term, screwed. Its demographics alone is enough to screw its economy. Corruption, debt and political interference also mitigate against it.

 

[Purple]

Good information on China's property developer woes, China's $1 Trillion Problem: The Property Developer Debt Crisis Intensifies

Property development represents about 30% of China’s GDP, and China Evergrande Group is only the tip of the iceberg. Ongoing defaults could eventually convert into bankruptcy filings that would shake up the industry. Although the risk is confined to China for now, these issues could spread into other high yield markets, such as the $3 trillion U.S. leveraged finance market