Are we heading into a global recession?

Purple

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The era of cheap money is over. The global economy is very fragile with very high government debt, inflation, bloated stock markets what gorged themselves on that cheap money, high energy prices and the risk of war in Europe. Are we about to have another crash?
 
We had a very severe, sharp, deep, but short recession in 2020.

Surely there won't be another one two years later???!!!

The Fed increasing interest rates is in response to strong economic growth and rising inflation.

It is a good sign that QE is being phased out, that is a signal of a return to normal.
 
Are we about to have another crash?

Perhaps.

Market events and geopolitical developments could claw back the run up in asset prices we have seen in the last decade.

It could even be severe enough to dampen the enthusiasm of the AAM 1%'ers pushing for wealth taxes ;)

What the Lord giveth, the Lord taketh!
 
I'm around since the early 1950's and as far as I am concerned we've just being going for one recession to the next. Recession seems to be our normal position regarding international/national finance. We've got over every recession in the past; we'll get over the next one whenever it comes. Don't go looking for one though; it'll find you soon enough. We live in precious times and let's keep them precious.
 
The era of cheap money is over. The global economy is very fragile with very high government debt, inflation, bloated stock markets what gorged themselves on that cheap money, high energy prices and the risk of war in Europe. Are we about to have another crash?

A crash in what?

House prices? = no, as there isn't excessive credit or construction

Comm property prices? retail property values are falling, already

Share prices?
 
A crash in what?

House prices? = no, as there isn't excessive credit or construction

Comm property prices? retail property values are falling, already

Share prices?
We are very exposed to international factors so demand within the domestic economy isn't be the main driver.
 
Earnings for end of Q4 2020 are coming out. Apple exceeded their projections with $123.b bn in revenue in the final quarter. Fed is taking measures to curb inflation and wage demands. ECB won't until next year.

Wondering what is going to cause the recession?
 
I'm around since the early 1950's and as far as I am concerned we've just being going for one recession to the next. Recession seems to be our normal position regarding international/national finance. We've got over every recession in the past; we'll get over the next one whenever it comes. Don't go looking for one though; it'll find you soon enough. We live in precious times and let's keep them precious.


This is false.

1980-1982 = bad recession

2008-2012 = bad recession
 
Very funny.

I mean those periods were deep or sharp or prolonged recessions.

There were other, milder slowdowns.
 
Whatever about recessions, I'm off to the Canaries for a few weeks on Tuesday next. I'll see what happened to the bit of money I have invested when I get back. If it has increased I'll be off again sooner than most, if it's gone then so be it. No big deal, we'll survive. On a brighter note, the Easter eggs are in Tesco this morning where I live, hope they all hatch:).
 
It is hard to tell the future.

Of course there will be a recession, but whether the will be next year or in a decade who knows.

Personally I was expecting inflation to soar after interest rates were slashed and CBs started increasing money supply in 2008, I am still waiting, maybe this year.
 
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