Saw some interesting Paddy Power specials on the election yesterday.
Evens on Jim Gavin getting at least 8%; Evens on spoiled votes being at least 10%; and Evens on the turnout being less than 40%.
If all that came to pass does that mean that only around 22% of the total electorate would give a first preference to the two candidates? Am I correct in this?
22% would be amazingly low participation in the actual contest by Irish standards, I reckon, and would mean that the two candidates would probably have the support of 14% and 8% of the
total electorate and the winner getting somewhere above 500,000 votes.
However, to be fair, Connolly is ahead in opinion polls in all regions and all age categories.
That’s probably as much a reflection on the alternative candidate as herself but she still connected far better with people.
it’s the failure of FF and FG and the next Dáil election that worries me.
I was also worried about the next election and a SF left alliance, but only half a million votes for Connolly would be modest enough and more a reflection on the government parties’ haphazard approach than huge mobilisation by the left.
Not mentioned much anywhere, but there will be a by-election to replace Connolly. That was Michael D's seat previously, so will be interesting for the left but could also become a serious test for the leaders of FF and FG.
Having only 2 candidates competing was good for Connolly, I think; I thought Heather’s selling point was weak, little more than, I’m not CC. I think that it turned into a sort of referendum on CC.
Having 4 leaders plus SF coming out batting for CC was effective also and good optics even if the 4 small parties only have 12/14% in the polls between them. Still looked impressive in comparison to Heather’s team.
I think she could have gotten 20 endorsements from the Oireachtas. More chance of that for her imo than 4 county councils
Her chance was through the independents in the Oireachtas. There were a number of independents and Junior Minister Independents who didn’t back her. Healy Rae and Harkin did and Verona might have had if she wasn’t Ceann Comhairle.
They blocked one of her potential paths via county \ city councils.
I don’t have a problem with that; I don’t see why a political party would allow somebody into the race which would reduce their chance of winning. It’s a contest after all.
I'd probably have held my nose and voted from Steen ahead of Connolly.
Same with me and had she got on the ballot she’d have gone close.
McDowell apparently reckoned that Gavin wouldn’t get momentum and Steen would be ahead of him; Steen then would overtake Humphries on his transfers. He had a sound reasoning, though I doubt that he factored in the mess that FF and FG would make of it to allow Connolly come through and win!