Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Status
Not open for further replies.
d53 said:
In the short term, if houses sell more slowly, the effect will be an increase in supply as new ones continue to come on to the market. I don't think that these quoted figures over a fortnight could be taken has evidence of a soft landing.

d
Click to expand...

Sorry i was being sarcastic!! I was just showing that supply is building up quite rapidly in several areas. None of these areas showed a decline in supply. As you say add these to all the new developments coming on board too. I dont believe we can have a soft landing at this stage. Things have gone too far! When we have EA's, banks and economists from Hooke and McDonald on the radio every single day trying to convince us that we are having a soft-landing then we know we are in trouble! They are very worried men!!!
 
howstrange said:
When we have EA's, banks and economists from Hooke and McDonald on the radio every single day trying to convince us that we are having a soft-landing then we know we are in trouble! They are very worried men!!!
Click to expand...

My thoughts exactly, all the VI's are getting as much exposure as they can to preach about the soft landing, inflation could well be 4% next year so anything less than 5% house price growth and prices will really have fallen.
 
Arthur Daley said:
Another debate on Newstalk this morning about stamp duty and it's affects on the market. An estate agent, and an economist (from H & McDonald I think) arguing it's all stamp duty's fault for the slump. The economist reckoned that prices would continue to remain high as there was no shortage of demand around Dublin for property - supply wasn't keeping up with the demand he argued!!!!............

I texted in that they kept having property vested interest love ins on the show and they needed to find some property bears to talk to and also that stamp duty is a red herring, (as pointed out previously on this thread). In fairness to Ger Gilroy he read the text out along with a similar one saying the the bubble was bursting.

Surely at this stage stamp duty can't be an issue with buyers holding off as you can just ensure that the deal closes the far side of the budget in 6-7 weeks because everyone expects SD thresholds to go up?
Click to expand...
I was the other person who texted in bout the bubble bursting , very surprised he read them out . Have to agree with the other posters, every current affairs programme for last 1 / 2 weeks has had a segment devoted to the vested interests , they are running scared imo .

I am a FTB and have noted the change greatly over last few months . had been lookin to buy early in 2006 but got priced out . I now have estate agents leaving messages on my mobile at least twice aweek and my mortgage broker is all over me like a rash trying to get me to draw down the loan .This is an example of the junk she is sending me "Have you been looking at any New Developments – there were quite a lot launched recently. In many cases a new development is perfect as a first property – you don’t have to do much work to it, you don’t have any stamp duty if you are an owner occupier and they tend to increase in value in the short term."

And what about the long term?? I for one am quite happy to rent in Ranelagh saving myself approx 1,300€ in net cash flow per month compared with having a mortgage in the same area and I know alot of my peers in the same position are quite happy to stay out of property market for as long as it takes for the market to start making sense again.
 
Funny, I texted in to Newstalk also, told them they were a disgrace having three bulls on a supposed balanced news item, and that I was switching over to Radio1, which I did.
Take it they didn't read that one out. ;-)
 
Jason7 said:
I was the other person who texted in bout the bubble bursting , very surprised he read them out . .....
Click to expand...

fair play for texting in...

2 of the 3 panelists believed that nothing significant would happen in the budget. they all seemed to be pleading for something to happen, the interview sounded like a pre budget submission.

I was struck by the lack of consistency in the pleadings for significant stamp duty adjustments. At one stage after asking for the increase in thresholds, the VI basically said that when this happened before, prices just increased, and that it would probably happen again. The hard questions of why should the money go to the seller rather than the government or what was the point in such a temporary measure wasnt asked.

There was no concern expressed for FTB's to get on the ladder, it just looked like a desperate plea to keep the increases going, let a few FTB's buy and then hopefully the price momentum will swing back towards increases.

Fair play to Ger Gilroy for reading out the texts but this is the first time i've heard him interview someone on this topic and it really sounded more like an advertisement than an interview. At least with an ad, they have to do the old "terms and conditions apply" stuff at the end.

But interviews like that and the non stop ads for property in Ireland, are telling their own story to anyone who is willing to listen.
 
Could somebody please re-post the link to the "house price's falling" blog?
Thanks in advance
 
edo said:
I totally concur - either its denial or the banks are staring the facts straight in the face and have decided to throw on their "Ronaldinho" Supersub economists on for the last 10 minutes to see if it will get them over the finish line to their christmas bonuses which by April this year they must assumed were in the bag.(eg Begg . O'Leary, McLaughlin and the unforgettable Austin Hughes)
Click to expand...

It is vital for the banks that the slowdown does not become ingrained in public minds. Combine this with NIB and their new rate cherry picking the best customers and it is starting to get competitive.

Furthermore Irish banks have not used the years of plenty at home to invest abroad and instead have just become property lenders....although highly profitable ones. No wonder 6% soft landing Beggsy had to get out there.
 
edo said:
From the Indo - this morning
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1711139&issue_id=14798
Click to expand...

20% of new builds empty since 2002!.

From cso stats on completed builds thats something like 57,000 new builds bought by speculators, a year's supply of housing!

Plus the second hand market numbers are not included, alot of inventory will flood the market more now that capital appreciation is on a downward trend.
There is NO housing shortage, only greed.
 
gurramok said:
20% of new builds empty since 2002!.

From cso stats on completed builds thats something like 57,000 new builds bought by speculators, a year's supply of housing!

Plus the second hand market numbers are not included, alot of inventory will flood the market more now that capital appreciation is on a downward trend.
There is NO housing shortage, only greed.
Click to expand...

Exactly and that is the argument against a repeat of the upswing in prices in 2001. A far greater supply and , equally importantly, the current speculative value of existing houses.

As a side note I have seen houses now on sale which reflect the 'new' price and the 'old' price with the latter looking outdated by current prices.
 
Awhile back on this thread the presence of "one-third of the housing stock lying empty" was identified. The current building-programme figures (80,000 a year for the past few years) have gone on top of that.

Forecasts suggest that 71,900 homes will be built per year between 2007 - 2011, which will fall to about 61,000 per year after that. But the report warns that a lack of new homes coupled with high prices is discouraging skilled immigrants from coming here.

Surely this can't be true? It represents an additional 359,500 units on top of what already exists? I wonder where they got this figure (and who makes these decisions!!!!)
:eek:
 
Per AIB the housing stock will be valued at 700,000 million at the end of 2006.

Now if we could work together to just bump that up 15% a year it would be worth 25,000 euros for everyone living in the country or say 50,000 euros for everyone at work !!!
 
re: AIB the housing stock will be valued at 700,000 million at the end of 2006.

And NASA estimates that the mineral wealth of the asteroids in the asteroid belt might exceed $100 billion for each of the six billion people on Earth.

Well at least they both look good on paper :D
 
I made the point a few years back on the Irish Property News forum, that we had solved the housing crisis, year on year. Humanities greatest problem had been figured out by the Irish no less. Well at least when you looked at our output vs demand. Yet demand doesn't mean those that demand in fact get. This it was never solved in reality.

Simply becasue of the basic greed of the speculators (ordinary joes like you and me) enabled the redirecting of the the much needed & very quickly constructed supply. With tax incentives the Government are utterly complicit in the current peak scenario unfolding.

I see the figures are bearing out all this and more. There is only so long a market can malfunction due to the artificial manipulation of a few before it resets itselfs naturally.

So maybe the fruits of the solution are about to come to us at last.

Whats happens when something is in overabudence, oh yes, the price drops!

Looks like oversupply will be not the only but the main attribute, with ECB rate hikes being the trigger for the sequence of events. Solely turning sentiment and sending the market south.
 
The Irish Government has announced workers from Bulgaria and Romania will not have free access to the Irish labour market when the two countries become full European Union members in January.

Looks like no repeat of the "immigrants-to-the-rescue" for the investment property market.
 
I have read alot of the comments on this thread. They are 99.9 % negative on the property market in Ireland. Would anybody like to state when and by how much properties are going to go down by. Maybe a brief comment 1 or 2 lines beside dates and percentages on why this date and percentage.
 
Remix said:
The Irish Government has announced workers from Bulgaria and Romania will not have free access to the Irish labour market when the two countries become full European Union members in January.

Looks like no repeat of the "immigrants-to-the-rescue" for the investment property market.
Click to expand...

It's been mostly the level of immigration which has been propping up the property market in the last few years. Some anecdotes I've heard would seem to support that 1. Investor I know both 2 investent properties in 2002 but was feeling very nervous about them at the time as he was having a hard time getting them rented - immigration seems to have bailed him out. 2. 2nd investor I know bought property last year and has it rented out but no irish people viewed his property when renting - all were immigrants. This is in the galway region
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top