Brendan Burgess
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Hi Odyssey
That is great. But what, if anything, does that tell us about the peak?
Brendan
That is great. But what, if anything, does that tell us about the peak?
Brendan
Hi Odyssey
That is great. But what, if anything, does that tell us about the peak?
Brendan
'peak' should mean peak of infections - as there is always a lag between infections to hospitalisations and then a lag to ICU admittance and fatalities.
But our testing regime isn't extensive enough to catch peak infections, so I would interpret it to mean peak hospitalisations.
I think we need to consider there may well be multiple peaks to this. Three more weeks of the current restrictions might well see hospital numbers drop, perhaps to the point where they declare we are passed the peak and restrictions are eased somewhat. But at that point the vast majority of the population will still be susceptible to infection, and an easing of restrictions will see the infection rate rise.
There could be and yes the majority of the population will still be susceptible.
But, if we eased the restrictions back on domestic levels while keeping flight restrictions - say to the previous level, I'm not sure where the pool of new contagious people are coming from?
With an estimated 50% of carriers asymptomatic, they're already among us.
Right now yes but after May 5th? Would there be a domestic reservoir of contagious people out there sufficient to restart the cycle?*
* this is a question, not a rhetorical point
Any guesses on what the R0 value would need to be before they make any significant changes to the current restrictions?
Based on below quote from above article, they are not aiming for 0...
"it doesn’t seem to me to be a viable strategy to maintain this level of restriction forever with the hope of eliminating the disease. Because then as soon as you do anything, the disease reappears, it just takes two or three people entering the country with the disease to restart it.”
Based on below quote from above article, they are not aiming for 0...