"Ireland has passed its peak"

Brendan Burgess

Brendan Burgess

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www.irishtimes.com

Coronavirus: Minister signs regulations giving gardaí powers to enforce lockdown

Republic sees record highest daily figure for new deaths at 36 bringing total to 210
www.irishtimes.com www.irishtimes.com

Ireland has passed its peak of Covid-19 infections but can expect more than 400 deaths by August, according to new international modelling data published on Tuesday.

Peak resource use of hospital and ICU beds passed on April 4th, while peak deaths passed on April 6th, according to the data published by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the US.

...

It says the peak of the pandemic has passed in many European countries, including Spain, Italy and France, where 19,209, 20,300 and 15,058 deaths are predicted, respectively.

Edit: The Irish Times has updated its online report

National Publc Health Emergency Team in Ireland criticises US research as unreliable

However, NPHET officials in Ireland criticised the US research as unreliable.

“It’s not really a model. It just took existing case data and suggested that because things seem to have stabilised over a short number of days that perhaps we’ve reached a peak,” said assistant chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn.

“It doesn’t take into account any changes over the coming days or the highest number of deaths reported this evening.”


Dr Glynn said Irish modelling being led by NUI Maynooth president Prof Philip Nolan was using a more extensive range of paramenters and people should wait to see what comes out of this work.

Placing “undue store” in the US research could lead to complacency, he warned.
 
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That seems very premature to state that given pretty much every expert has refused to state when the peak will be. If it’s true that’s great news but I would take that with a large handful of salt for the moment.
 
Although it seems that Spain,Italy, UK and France etc are having less deaths but still a lot of numbers Belgium ,Holland are having increased amount of deaths as in USA. I think it is a bit soon to say that the peak has passed. Ireland are hoping to have 4,500 people tested every day so we will have to wait and see what this brings about.
 
459 cases from first 6000 tests sent to Germany to be factored in with rest to follow results up to 2 weeks and over behind not possible to know yet
 
I would imagine that we are past the peak of new infections. Although the stats. are patchy, the physical distancing and isolation must be reducing the number.

Though having said that, I am surprised that they put the peak for new infections as late as 4th April. I would have thought it was much earlier.

I am referring to the true underlying infections, and not the reports of confirmed cases which lag behind the underlying infections.

The hospitalisations and deaths would lag behind the infections.
 
The same report suggests 66K deaths in the UK. Let's hope the actual figure is a small proportion of that.

"The study predicts 66,300 deaths in the UK, the highest in Europe. The UK’s use of bed resources is predicted to peak on April 17th and its deaths on April 20th."
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Hi Séamus

Have you a link for this?

Brendan
Click to expand...
Dr holohan said it in yesterday's HSE meeting he said it will be discussed more at today's briefing with more information on the numbers and how they are to factor them in .I was surprised the journalists didn't pick up more on it
 
Dr Holohan has just said that report is just not true and I think 36 people dying today underlines it
 
Also 17 cases from 179 German samples mentioned today not sure if counted in, again not picked up by journalists who seem to be asking similar questions although putting doctor spot regarding being in top tier for testing which at average of 1700 per day for past week I wouldn't think is.
 
The FG PR consultants working for Independent News & Media and RTE are unlikely to question anything coming from Il Duce or his glove-puppets
 
The Irish Times has updated its report

National Publc Health Emergency Team in Ireland criticises US research as unreliable

However, NPHET officials in Ireland criticised the US research as unreliable.

“It’s not really a model. It just took existing case data and suggested that because things seem to have stabilised over a short number of days that perhaps we’ve reached a peak,” said assistant chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn.

“It doesn’t take into account any changes over the coming days or the highest number of deaths reported this evening.”


Dr Glynn said Irish modelling being led by NUI Maynooth president Prof Philip Nolan was using a more extensive range of paramenters and people should wait to see what comes out of this work.

Placing “undue store” in the US research could lead to complacency, he warned.
 
I wonder if the maths of this virus are consistent in Ireland with widely noted percentages, that is 80% mild to moderate illness, 14% serious and 6% very serious.

If we look at current data, 210 people have died and 194 are in ICU, of which I think 14 died, so possibly these numbers combined total the 6%, so possibly 1% equals 65 or so people and total infections equal 6,500 presently? My simpleton maths doesn't tie into current hospitalisions, actual numbers are a couple of hundred people higher.

The clusters in nursing homes are the big concerns and will determine everything at the end. Just looking at the people I know or work with, mostly everyone is complying, the few people that I do know that have the virus are on the right side of it so in my circle thankfully so far the measures have worked. Parents are cocooned etc

Ultimately the number of people that die may be the 6% which might be why outlets today are noting deaths circa 400 by August, which seems very optimistic.

All that said, in spite of what we might see on social media, everyone has pulled together on this and it hasn't to date taken the hold it could have if Government hadn't put all those measures in place.

No place for complacency, a second wave is completely plausible, and the country is changed utterly. The tourism industry may as well write off 9/12ths of 2020, we could easily end up back in lockdown later this year until we get to the point of mass vaccination.
 
A “cluster” is three or more people testing positive. That’s a very low bar.
E.G.
There are four people in my house and three of us had symptoms. Only one tested, with a positive result.
If my home was a nursing home, it would effectively be a cluster.
 
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Hi Drakon

But in your home, the maximum exposure is 4.

In a nursing home, a cluster of 3 could quickly infect a lot more residents and staff.

Brendan
 
Detailed figures here on RTE on current hospitalised cases and capacity.

858 patients in hospitals with Covid-19, plus 476 patients regarded as suspected cases, who are waiting for test results.
There are 2,254 general beds vacant in public hospitals.
There are 133 vacant critical care beds in public hospitals and in some private hospitals listed.
Up to Wednesday, there were 146 confirmed Covid-19 patients in critical care units, plus 21 suspected cases in these units.
Most of the confirmed Covid-19 patients in critical care units, are in St James’s (19), Beaumont (16) and the Mater (15).

www.rte.ie

Largest number of Covid-19 cases in Dublin hospitals

Three Dublin hospitals have the largest number of confirmed Covid-19 cases - Beaumont Hospital with 132 patients, St James's with 95 and the Mater with 84 cases, according to new HSE figures.
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie
 
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