Will the government fall before the next budget is passed?

[Purple]

The Croke Park agreement has come back to bite the state on the ass, just as all rational people who understood the magnitude of what we faced knew it would. The government has avoided all the hard decisions so far and has put a weak minister in charge of Public Sector reform. If they were serious about it but still wanted a Labour Party person there then they would have given Joan Burton the job. Screwing new entrants but not touching existing employees or pensioners is totally unfair and has Union fingerprints all over it.

It is simply impossible to cut state spending by 10-15% if 60-70% of state spending (wages) cannot be touched.

 

[Firefly]

Purple,

It's one of those things, IMO, like the housing bubble. It gets to a certain stage and the dogs in the street know what the situation is, but for some reason, it's not a topic people seem to want discussed.

Only last week we heard Liam Doran give out that his members would not stand idly by and watch the cuts in home care. The sad fact though, and the unions won't admit to this, is that the Croke Park Agreement is a big part of the reason why these cuts have to be made. It's Salaries vs Services and it's the services that are being cut. This can only go on for so long though.

Firefly.

 

[Shawady]

If they were serious about it but still wanted a Labour Party person there then they would have given Joan Burton the job.

Joan Burton is minister for social welfare and has commited not to cut rates which is even more bonkers in my opinion, given that the social welfare bill is higher than the PS wage bill.

Your comment on screwing new entrants is exactly how I felt when the pension levy was introduced. This was a pay cut but basically protected those that had retired or were close to it. A pay cut would have been fairer.

I'd be surprised if the government fell as they will never have a better chance to get a second term but if they did fall it would probably suit boths sides to go on an issue like this.

 

[Deiseblue]

5 to 1 according to Paddy Power for a 2012 election.

Pat Rabbitte reckons this Government has a " good to middling " chance of surviving the December budget - the reaction to what is going to be a very difficult budget seems to be the overriding concern of Governing politicians.

 

[Purple]

Joan Burton is minister for social welfare and has commited not to cut rates which is even more bonkers in my opinion, given that the social welfare bill is higher than the PS wage bill.

Good point; the government is tied into the Croke Park agreement which, in normal circumstances, would be a good thing. The problem is that these aren't normal circumstances.
FG can't act because Labour have a gun to their head and Labour won't act because their Trade Union masters won't allow them to.

Your comment on screwing new entrants is exactly how I felt when the pension levy was introduced. This was a pay cut but basically protected those that had retired or were close to it. A pay cut would have been fairer.

Agreed.

I'd be surprised if the government fell as they will never have a better chance to get a second term but if they did fall it would probably suit boths sides to go on an issue like this.

I'm not sure about this; the smaller party always does worst in these situations. The Shinners would be the real winners.

 

[The_Banker]

What odds Fianna Fail would step into Labours shoes and support the government.

Some of the remaining FF TDs must be feeling the pinch now not getting any ministers salaries and perks.

 

[Bronte]

Only last week we heard Liam Doran give out that his members would not stand idly by and watch the cuts in home care.

So will he and the others volunteer the cutting up of Croke Park to reverse the cuts?

 

[Purple]

So will he and the others volunteer the cutting up of Croke Park to reverse the cuts?

Of course not; their income is more important than the services they provide. It's the same, in general, for anyone in the protected sector.

 

[Shawady]

What odds Fianna Fail would step into Labours shoes and support the government.

I suggested this after the last election that in the future we may see a FG/FF coalition.
FG are doing ok in the polls and would certainly benefit more than Lab if an election was called but who would they go into government with?
If Lab was not on, there is no chance they would with SF or any of the other left parties. FF could probably negoiate 5 or 6 ministers.
It may be too early for that type of alliance but I would be surprised to see a right (FF/FG) allaince verus a left (LAB/SF/others) in the future.

 

[Firefly]

FG are doing ok in the polls and would certainly benefit more than Lab if an election was called

I'm not sure...a nicely expanded PS is a good thing for Labour..

 

[Deiseblue]

So will he and the others volunteer the cutting up of Croke Park to reverse the cuts?

The question of the home help cuts is surely destined for the Labour Court .

The LC has stated previously that the home helps have guaranteed contracts of employment.

Indeed negotiations between SIPTU & the HSE were already taking place on the question of hours to be worked when the HSE announced putative cuts - something that won't smooth the path of industrial relations.

 

[cork]

The HSE are over budget - the Labour party want to protect services & wages. How can they do this?

The Labour party want it every way.


Brenden Howlin has delivered very little public sector reform.


FG don't have the bottle to reform local government.

There seems to be very little leadership.

 

[Knuttell]

This Govt will not run full term,it will stagger through the Budget and probably implode a few months later,most voters will give FG the benefit of the doubt as they were seriously hamstrung by having Labour as a Coalition partner who refused to turn in any serious cut's to our big ticket items Social Welfare and PS pay and conditions,preferring instead to load the pain onto the much put upon donkey,the Working-Middle Classes.

Labour will suffer very badly in the election and we will either see a FG majority Govt or as pointed out earlier a FG/FF coalition that will work quite well and finally address the issues necessary for recovery...

...and we will all live happily ever after...hurrah!

 

[Shawady]

Some people forget that the Croke Park agreement only runs til 2014. It is due to be re-negotiated in 2013. It might be a handy issue for both sides to fall out over, but I'd still be surprised if they wanted to leave office.

 

[cork]

The Labour party seem only to be worried about the public sector unions.

 

[Liamos]

The HSE are over budget - the Labour party want to protect services & wages. How can they do this?

The Labour party want it every way.


Brenden Howlin has delivered very little public sector reform.


FG don't have the bottle to reform local government.

There seems to be very little leadership.

Bring back FF? All is forgiven?

 

[cork]

I think FG have no bottle to cut the number and waste in local authoritys.

The Minister for Public Sector Reform has been a major disappointment.

Getting value for money in public sector spending should be a priority.

The current government are not delivering public sector reform.

 

[Purple]

I think FG have no bottle to cut the number and waste in local authoritys.

The Minister for Public Sector Reform has been a major disappointment.

Getting value for money in public sector spending should be a priority.

The current government are not delivering public sector reform.

Yes, if they keep this up for another 10 years they will be half as bad as the last government.

 

[STEINER]

I expect Labour to remain in coalition government. Many Labour TDs would face a hostile electorate if they seek re-election.

 

[cork]

I expect Labour to remain in coalition government. Many Labour TDs would face a hostile electorate if they seek re-election.

I think the sight of them standing by James Reilly was a new low for them.

They are just so many get out clauses in the Croke Park Deal.

Niether FG or Labour have a clue.

They seem to have no bottle to target waste.

Enda Kenny does not even turn up to TV debates.

Reilly uses the HSE to make his announcements.