When will the downward spiral in the stockmarket end?

Thomas22 said:
"Past performance is no guide to the future" and after the longest and most extreme period of house price inflation this country has ever seen i think that statement is very important. To see where we COULD be headed you need to take at the previous property bubbles in Japan and the UK and just at Ireland.
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Look at the malaise on the markets today, again. This bloodbath is not for stopping. The credit being pushed out of the markets, combined with inflation and recession in UK and USA is affect the s/markets big time which react fastest, this will soon spread to all other asset based classes.

As property is an asset class built on the same foundation of insane credit, in the next couple of years you can kiss goodbye to a considerable amount of value. Compared to average salaries and affordability outside 100% mortgages or interest only, a lot of people won't have the same feel good factor, or it'll be the opposite which is very bad. This hubris of capitalism on steroids has to come to an end, it had to eventually. See you on the upcycle, whenever that kicks in!!?
 
the credit crisis is almost over. Libor rates have plummeted. foreclosures in the US will not nearly be as bad as anticipated as mortgage rates are falling rapidly and they are all re-financing, plus bush's plan to help subprime borrowers is working. this quarters results are goign to be terrible for banks but i believe that next quarter the banks will say that the subprime losses have stabilised. thats all the stock market needs to make it start rallying again. no bank will go under. this has happened b4 and pessimism was overdone then too. let the market sell off, enjoy watching it collapse and when the FED cut on jan 30th and a US bank comes out and says its lossess are stabilizing then buy! buy! buy!
 
look at the FTSE, its up . i dont recommend buying irish shares at all. the markets are in capitulation i.e. selling in panic mode. this is making the bottom. when its on the news every morning its nearly at the bottom
 
"News is just coming in that the Iseq has fallen 1.6%" in just the first minute of trading". That's how the newscaster interrupted the 8.0c RTE bulletin this morning. It was spoken in such a sensational manner as to imply "another couple of hours of this and there will be nothing left:eek:".

But a move like that at the opening of an exchange is not at all remarkable, in fact given overnight activity in Asia it was positively restrained, but it's not in the RTE psyche to have seen this as a positive indication.
 
Purple said:
It took another (big) downward spiral this morning.
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Martin Luther Day in States yesterday. Expect an imminent announcement from the Fed, since its left holding the baby. Far East stoxx took a hammering last night, watched till 2 am. Worst case scenario - 9% Dow wipe. Futures already 5% off.
 
coola said:
the credit crisis is almost over. Libor rates have plummeted. foreclosures in the US will not nearly be as bad as anticipated as mortgage rates are falling rapidly and they are all re-financing, plus bush's plan to help subprime borrowers is working. this quarters results are goign to be terrible for banks but i believe that next quarter the banks will say that the subprime losses have stabilised. thats all the stock market needs to make it start rallying again. no bank will go under. this has happened b4 and pessimism was overdone then too. let the market sell off, enjoy watching it collapse and when the FED cut on jan 30th and a US bank comes out and says its lossess are stabilizing then buy! buy! buy!
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Wow that is bullish!!! Have to say I don't agree with you though. Libor rates have plummeted because the central banks have flooded the market. Not because banks are more willing to lend to each other. Sub prime losses will be larger than expected and bush's plan helps very few of these borrowers. All the banks have stated that they expect more write downs in 2008 especially in Europe. (Rumours of massive write downs in Soc Gen about to be announced). In the US, the problems have spread to consumer market in the form of higher delinquiences in credit cards which has the potential to be as big a problem as sub prime.

The Fed will cut rates TODAY in my opinion.
 
Sunny said:
The Fed will cut rates TODAY in my opinion.
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100% agree. Ed Balls conceded a definitive IR cut by BoE. Could be Black Tuesday for the States. No days left to tarnish. Expect FTSE to plummet when Dow opens then bounce back prior to end of trade. Daivd Buick at Cantor has just been on Sky screaming for a 1% cut but Henk Potts at Barclays wants no emergency rate cut, as it'll exaccerbate any sell-off. MPC will move only .25 bps next meeting.




More turbo juice for the Gold rocket.
 
It's not a spiral, it's a plummet. My former SSIA is taking a hell of a beating (say that in a Norweigian accent)
 
the FED will bail out wall st, no matter what they say. i dont know if bernanke will cut until next week, he could then take .75% off fhe funds rate. you are really looking at worst case scenario, this never plays out. it wont be as bad as first feared and the recession if there is one will be shallow and short lived. unemployment is 5% in US (very low) and average weekly claims fell the past 2 weeks. i think it contracted in Q4 and possibly Q1 so that is a recession but as i say, all you need is the FED to cut big again and then a major bank i.e bank of america today to say that delinquinces have stabilised and we are off to the races
 
this is much the same as october 1987 crash. market recovered in 2 months. will sell off hugely today in US maybe tomorrow as well. it will be short lived. can i post some company names on here that are good stock picks or is that a violation
 
listen to this joker

Thomas McManus, a strategist at Banc of America Securities, said investors may want to increase their holdings of stocks if the market drops as expected at the open.

what rubbish advice. no one should be involved in this market
 
coola said:
listen to this joker

Thomas McManus, a strategist at Banc of America Securities, said investors may want to increase their holdings of stocks if the market drops as expected at the open.

what rubbish advice. no one should be involved in this market
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What on earth are you talking about?

You've just been asking if you can give stock picks (which, yes, is a violation of posting rules) and now you are rubbishing someone else who is giving sector picks for some unnamed market!

Let me guess, you have holdings in certain companies that you want to pump. Penny shares anyone?
 
excuse me. i said no one should be buying in this current market today and tomorrow but when the sentiment changes after the FED cuts then you should buy, how is that a contradiciton. you should never increase your positions in shares when they are falling in value, you shoudl only increase them if the share is rising in price.

this guy did not give sector picks, he said the markets as a whole. i have no holdings in anything at the moment . i was going to give some stock pics that will rocket with sentiment changes. forget it
 
I don't think its illegal to talk about sectors though..how about the banking sector..the yields are higher than ever even if you factor in a short term wobble in profits..I think it will recover moderately, but the construction sector will take time, food has got decent medium term prospects, and emerging markets have got better long term prospects than developed markets such as Ireland, EU, UK of US, so it would be good to diversify into them rather than being in the ISEQ totally. Any comments Coola?
 
indeed. i wudnt agree with you about the US though. stocks there are undervalued and the fed are way ahead of the ecb in monetary easing. construcion is not good. i think banking shares will lead the next rally up, everyone will reliase that the banks are not going out of business and they will be bought up sending their prices and the markets higher. agri shares are the top notch ones especially ones that are developing drought resistant strains etc. two of these companies blew away wall st recently with results, their shares are way down with the sell off. India is my favourite emerging market, they dont rely on manufacturing as much as china
 
For those with no current exposure to the ISEQ - wouldn't this be a good time to buy?

Isn't the decision "do I think shares are going to continue to drop over the next few days?"

Then hold on for a recovery?
 
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