So Bush could get the ECB rate reduction that the French politicians have been looking for.... strange bed fellows indeed!
Personally I reckon a call from Bush to Trichet is the one thing guaranteed to keep rates where they are.
I heard on the news that if the dollar falls lower than €1.60 President Bush is going to call Trichet and tell him to lower european interest rates! How true that is I don't know.
Wrong, eh? Using the S&P 500 as an example, the lowest close around the time of my message was 1273, on the 10th - yesterdays' close was 1276. Granted intraday low was 1257, but that it recovered hints at some strength at this level. The NYSE (which is heavy in financial stocks) did set a lower low close yesterday but also closed substantially off it's lows.
So - wrong ?? Too soon to tell for definite, but I would say not wrong YET is a reasonable statement.
There's now way this has bottomed out!
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/ubs-1q-losses-to-equal-13-of-equity.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/27/b...=2&pagewanted=1&fta=y&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
[broken link removed]
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7324981.stm
There is so much more to come....
Mish today was making the very good point that mortgage resets are not the horror story that they were a year ago in the states because short term interest rates are falling so fast that a lot of these mortgages will actually reset lower than their original rates. He is normally a perma-bear so it was interesting hearing this point of view. However, he does qualify it by saying that a lot of the teaser rates were interest-only and they will reset to a higher payment no matter what interest rates are doing
It's not about the negative journalism, it's about the US financial system being in meltdown.
The US financials have yet to mark to market the true value of their subprime, then there's the 80/20 mortgages, then the HELOC's, then there's the rating corrections, then there's the monolines, then there's the continuous negative economic data....etc
When the above is cleaned out and positive data starts to be produced, it is probable the S&P will have hit a bottom.
If you really want to talk TA, you should try www.tickerforum.org A lot of the guys there could offer a much better argument than I could on the TA front.
Sure, there will always be negativity, but has it all ever added up so clearly?
I can honestly not see what will keep the S&P above 1250 much longer. A short-term resistance maybe.
Which of the us stoks have you made gains?yes i think we have seen the worst of the stock market woes. market bottoms historically have been seen when there is capitulation etc. the monday the bear collapsed there was capitulation, the fed came to the rescue and we are 1000 points higher on the dow as we speak. there were two rallies since then where the number of advancing stocks outpaced declining ones by 9-1. this is an extremely bullish sign. one that historically had lead to big gains in the 3, 6 and 12 month periods after.
there was a 9-1 down day between the up days so this takes a little lustre off it but the 9-1 up days have a lot more power than the 9-1 down days. i feel we are on the way back up , just look at today, jobless claims were very bad and the market was down 0.25%. the volatility is way way down, when UBS said they had a 19 billion writedown we had a huge rally. these are all signs of market bottoms. i am back in the market and am up already. if the down breaks above 12750 on good volume soon then i will be doubling my positions.
I also heard that, in order to justify the sub-prime write downs to date, something like 85% of sub-prime mortgages will have to default. The "pennies-on-the-dollar" writedowns so far may have been excessive, especially if the US avoids a major recession.
Market has lost 3% again today, does no one care, has everyone sold [looks like it]?? At Q1/2005 values, IMO its heading for Q1/2004 before year end