SamanthaJane...
a travel agent takes no risk-other than costs of running a shop. Basically we are parasites that live off the commission given by tour operators, airlines, hotels etc.
Tour operators are different .They take the risk. They block-book fights and accommodation long in advance and produce glossy brochures.
Depending on the contract with the airline/hotel the tour operator must pay that hotel or airline several weeks in advance.
So, if the tour operator Bodge-it Travel has a contract with Crash Airlines to fly to,say, Gaza every week in the Summer plus a contract for forty rooms in Hotel Hamas then on a certain date ,say, 1st April Bodge-it must pay over a large sum to the airline/hotel.
If, on Ist April Bodge-it Travel see that people are just not booking their family holiday to Gaza it cancels the flight and hotel and saves that big payment.
If bookings look good on 1ST April, Bodge-it Travel pay the money to crash Airlines and Hotel Hamas and hopefully sells the rest of the Gaza programme during the Summer. If,shortly before departure date, there's still a few empty seats Bodge-it sell them off cheaply.
So, iduring the next few weeks tour operators are looking how bookings are going before making the final cancel-programme decisions. If a certain percent of a flight remains unsold by a certain date then operators are reluctant to hand over big payments to airlines and hotels. The percentage and the date varies. But generally this year operators are being cautious and are already cancelling destinations that are not selling well. (e.g. yesterday Budget scrapped its Fuerteventura programme)
(Actually I reckon Ryanair and Aer Lingus may also cancel some of their scheduled flights -they dont like flying empty either. Neither tour operators nor airlines can wait till the last moment for clients to decide whether to book or not. )
I,as a travel agent, don't have commitments like operators -i just take commission for what i sell -and increasingly in my case that means anything from Australia to Zululand. People may not be booking packages early but eventually they go somewhere.
I don't know why I'm telling you all this. I'm obviously a talkative insomniac like you !
Thats why my staff dont want me in the shop -I talk to long to the clients. But now I'm away for a few days.