Hmm, my tax euros will not go towards subsidising the people that bought at peak madness (aka last spring).
I'll emigrate before I subsidise the "investors" (saps).
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Hmm, my tax euros will not go towards subsidising the people that bought at peak madness (aka last spring).
I'll emigrate before I subsidise the "investors" (saps).
bearishbull
Registered User
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Ah leave the poor sheeple alone, no one told them prices could fall! like you'd think they had taken part in a pyramid scheme in cork the way youre talking like!
S
somerset
Guest
I have emigrated... almost two years ago.. and my sentiment is that the market will continue to climb
I arrived in Ireland as a skilled immigrant in 2000 and quickly assumed the position of a property bear, very much encouraged by sceptic parents and family with regard to the property market. I have maintained that position unflinchingly ...until becoming a follower of this website.
The property market in 2000 seemed out of control and i waited confidently for the crash to occur. In late 2004 I emigrated, very much due the poor quality of life i could avail of in Dublin, and the unrelenting climb in its costs.
I have no regrets about leaving however the barrier to returning has climbed even higher.
I still believe that the price of property is overvalued in Ireland, however reading this web site has been a reflection of my own stubborness; i imagine a lot of bears on this website would have been happy to get a foot on the ladder in 2000 and probably see that as a time when things werent that expensive, well it did seem expensive then, but not now... Its all relative, and i envisage that in 4 years time the same debates will be raging. A recent article found through a link on this site has reinforced that possibility.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/847/ifdp847.pdf
In Ireland, property that appears expensive today will unfortunately seem like a bargain in 5 years time, and irrespective of how much i would love to see it drop, and how often i log on here for links to articles that reinforce that hope, it appears it most likely wont happen anytime soon. Infact over the years of following the Irish property game... too closely... there have been regular glimmers of hope, which have faded into smiles on the faces of friends who had the discipline and determination to get on the ladder.
Again it is my hope that things do you pear shaped on a grand scale, I really mean that but i fear i may be waiting a while.
So my sentiment is hopelessly bearish, the obsession and capacity for property in Ireland will remain strong in the long term
I arrived in Ireland as a skilled immigrant in 2000 and quickly assumed the position of a property bear, very much encouraged by sceptic parents and family with regard to the property market. I have maintained that position unflinchingly ...until becoming a follower of this website.
The property market in 2000 seemed out of control and i waited confidently for the crash to occur. In late 2004 I emigrated, very much due the poor quality of life i could avail of in Dublin, and the unrelenting climb in its costs.
I have no regrets about leaving however the barrier to returning has climbed even higher.
I still believe that the price of property is overvalued in Ireland, however reading this web site has been a reflection of my own stubborness; i imagine a lot of bears on this website would have been happy to get a foot on the ladder in 2000 and probably see that as a time when things werent that expensive, well it did seem expensive then, but not now... Its all relative, and i envisage that in 4 years time the same debates will be raging. A recent article found through a link on this site has reinforced that possibility.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/847/ifdp847.pdf
In Ireland, property that appears expensive today will unfortunately seem like a bargain in 5 years time, and irrespective of how much i would love to see it drop, and how often i log on here for links to articles that reinforce that hope, it appears it most likely wont happen anytime soon. Infact over the years of following the Irish property game... too closely... there have been regular glimmers of hope, which have faded into smiles on the faces of friends who had the discipline and determination to get on the ladder.
Again it is my hope that things do you pear shaped on a grand scale, I really mean that but i fear i may be waiting a while.
So my sentiment is hopelessly bearish, the obsession and capacity for property in Ireland will remain strong in the long term
liteweight
Registered User
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Have you..or anybody close to you, been born, educated, been ill, died, collected a pension, been on the dole, social welfare....the affordable housing scheme????? If the answer to any of the above is yes, then this 'saps' tax euros helped support you and I didn't emigrate because of it!!!!!!
bearishbull
Registered User
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- 207
Theres a difference when it comes to investments, buying homes and the like, you must know that the vast majority of people with no mortgage left or who dont have a mortgage or a small mortgage would be most annoyed if the government helped out the last 10 or 20% of buyers who suffered in a crash, people entered into this with their eyes wide open (or should have) and accepted that they may gain a load or lose a load but its their own responsibility.
bearishbull
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Jaysis man, in 2000 very few if any people though property was overvalued wasnt much if any more than renting. The banks and mortgage brokers are both saying growth will slow to nothing next year then many of the speculators in the market will pull out as rates hit 5% and rents remain low/static,the market will be a buyers one and prices will fall over a prolonged period(years).
what your saying is prices kept rising after you thought they wouud fall so they will continuing rising now despite all the reasons that (even the vested interests admit) will stop growthnext year and therfore IMO cause falls in real terms, get a grip will ya.
liteweight
Registered User
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Yeah I know...just sick of people spitting the dummy!!
Here's a link to the front page article in the Sunday Business Post yesterday
Brokers predict major slowdown in housing market
[broken link removed]
"It is now very much an issue, as base rates are at 3 per cent. Where is the money going to come from for first-time buyers to buy new homes?”
Brokers predict major slowdown in housing market
[broken link removed]
"It is now very much an issue, as base rates are at 3 per cent. Where is the money going to come from for first-time buyers to buy new homes?”
P
phoenix_n
Guest
The difference between 2000 and 2006 is that now we have a bubble. Irish property, in the context of Europe, was quite cheap and it merely was catching up in prices to be on par with other developed european cities. Whilst you may have been waiting for a crash in 2000 you really have to separate sentiment from factual analysis and in 2000 the prices were indeed only playing catch up.
Now all economists, financial institutions etc agree that there is a bubble. They may differ on possible outcomes but the fact that a bubble is recognised is very significant. Its akin to driving a car knowing that your tyres are over-inflated and wraped. Its an inevitable outcome.
Speculation by the masses in one asset on what people may pay for it in future is what created the wraped nature of the bubble. As i said before a 250K apartment bought for 400K involved a cost of 150K to enter the market to speculate on capital appreciation. Now with that now occuring (it will take time for it to play out) that apt is still only worth (and slightly less as nervous buyers) 250K with the speculator (and not investor) losing 150K.
S
StoppedClock
Guest
I agree with all you are saying but I think the most important difference is that now it appears that the lenders are going to turn off the taps.
IMO even with the acknowledgement that there is a bubble and the general change in sentiment this in itself will not stop the HPI and I believe that if the banks do continue to lend ever more amounts then the prices will continue to go up.
P
phoenix_n
Guest
Whilst that may have been true a number of years ago the nature of the property market at the moment is heavily based on peoples sentiment. The bidding wars of the last 6 months were not a consequence of people desperately seeking 'shelter' but was based solely on speculating that the asset was going to continue to rise.
S
StoppedClock
Guest
But there still are a lot of people who believe it is a one way ticket and for every bearish report they will quote a bullish one, these people will not be convinced until the market actually starts tanking, IMO the sentiment hasn't turned sufficiently bearish to kill the market, and that the next chapter in the book is the FTB's not getting the loans which will then lead to the more widespread change of sentiment which will tip the scales.
However if the lenders/goberment pull another trick from their sleeve which allows continued increases in loans (or some other way of making houses more 'affordable') then the market will continue to go up and the current bearish sentiment will be replaced by a new unbelievably bullish one where the feeling will be of utter invincibility because the market shrugged of IR and high oil prices etc. etc.
P
phoenix_n
Guest
Perhaps but as of now with prices stalled ( hard to spot though as slow season ) ,irish property from a speculative and investing perspective is now an unsafe and unrewarding investment. Those that sell their property now to previous unsuccesful buyers (where many are still reading the market as when they entered) are off-loading at the the top of the market.
But this thread can be put on hold as oct/nov the price freeze will be noticed, buyers will be nervous but some will stil commit, xmas will be slow and not until feb/mar will slight panic happen when sellers still cannot off-load. Market will be read by summer resulting in downward spiral prices in aug (entering market early) and continue to who knows when.
But thats my take and we will have to see.
G
Guest126
Guest
Hi Phoenix_n
I thought from your recent post (above) that you were expecting a 40% drop in apartment prices by end of 2006 - it now sounds like you're expecting no dramatic prince fall until August 2007, have you changed sentiment?
thefisherman
Registered User
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trying to guess when this wobbly bubble is going to start rolling downhill is tricky to pinpoint-but roll it will.
and it will quickly snowball.
axiom, if prices can't rise forever-they wont.
when they stop rising the market will be hit by canny investors offloading near the top and nervous speculators dumping properties that are draining their cash flow.not to mention the over supply of 80 to100 thousand houses being built.
the investors,and builders can afford to sell for less than the speculators who will have to drop prices to compete.
nobody wants to hang on to an asset that is falling in value,shares or houses. people will try and salvage what profit they can so i can see the market going into freefall, total carnage when it gets going.
saying this does not mean i want it to happen,but business is war.there will be winners and lots of losers.
prepare, the end draws near.
you cant time the markets so the smart money is probably pulling out already.
good luck.
tough times ahead,i fear.
G
Guest126
Guest
But if posters choose to nail their colours to the mast then they cant turn around and say "oh it's a hard one to call" - if it is too hard to call a date, then don't call a date!!
bearishbull
Registered User
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Nobody can call it accurately at this stage and there is never a 40% fall in prices of property in space of less than a year unless theres a major event to cause it. This will be a slow drawn out affair, dont listen to people saying prices will fall dramatically in space of a year or two as this isnt the way things pan out in the marketplace.
G
Guest126
Guest
Although there have been some spectacular share price collapses in less than a year, I suppose property would be (by its nature) a more drawn out process, even in event of a crash.
P
phoenix_n
Guest
Thanks for keeping tabs on me. I can see localised drops in prices by the end of the year in that poor stock will take a hit but it wont be that noticeable in the wider sector. (properties that come on the market after sale fell thru will be cheaper aswell as the length of time on market will force quicker sale) The 'actual' hit wont (IMO) occur until there is an attempt by many recent 'investors' to liquidate their stock. By my reckoning Aug 2007.
G
Guest107
Guest
you did say 40% by christmas Phoenix 
nahhhhhhhhhhhhh that won't happen. The EAs are a selling cartel in Ireland and can finesse pricing to hide slumps for up to 2 years by not dropping below certain thresholds and sticking there .
The problem is that the selling cartel has been bypassed as I explained elsewhere so the EA selling cartel do not have the power to finesse this downturn as they did previous ones.
nahhhhhhhhhhhhh that won't happen. The EAs are a selling cartel in Ireland and can finesse pricing to hide slumps for up to 2 years by not dropping below certain thresholds and sticking there . The problem is that the selling cartel has been bypassed as I explained elsewhere so the EA selling cartel do not have the power to finesse this downturn as they did previous ones.
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