A majority has registered for the Household Charge - has a majority paid?

[Harry31]

I haven't paid the property tax as yet - as a matter of principle. Alright, it may be a pointless gesture in some people's opinion & it probably is. But it is born of frustration of not only the unfairness of this tax, but frustration of the past couple of years of cutbacks/additional taxed & the fact that none of the bankers/developers/politicians - years on - have been brought to account for their reckless & criminal behavior. I know to register my protest is going to cost me money & I will pay it at sometime in the future - it's the law & I have no choice, I understand that. I have never broken the law before. But I believe my actions are true for many people who are totally frustrated by the situation currently in this country. I'd like to add, that the statements by various members of the government are only adding fuel to this frustration - when will they learn that they are supposed to be servants of the people - not the other way around - they should learn to keep their mouths shut!

 

[Luternau]

Am I correct that TDs MUST be tax compliant?
If so ,those TDs who didnt pay the household charge should be out of a job soon enough..

Its not a tax-its a 'charge', so I guess those that did not pay, are still tax compliant.

I would say it is it totally incorrect to say a majority have paid. Perhaps a majority have registered, but how many of those that registered are exempt?

I am not against a property tax or a charge for the provision of local services instead of increases in income tax-as per FG commentary. However, as the owner of buy to let property, I am strongly opposed to paying for the provision of local services enjoyed by my tenants. Those who avail of street cleaning, road maintenance, parks etc should be the people that pay-unless exempted by the state. Asking landlords to pay is just wrong.

 

[serotoninsid]

Sid
Using the figures in your link...So the worst case is 1m out of 1.8m have not paid

Just for the sake of clarity, a statistician was just interviewed on newstalk (from the National Institute for Regional & Spatial Analysis) backing up this assertion i.e. 1.8 is the correct figure rather than 1.6million figure asserted by Phil Hogan.

 

[truthseeker]

[broken link removed]

The National Institute of Regional and Spatial Analysis says there are actually more homes liable for the Household Charge than the government estimates.

The Local Government Management Agency says around 1.6 million householders must pay the 100 euro levy.

805,000 people had registered to pay the €100 household charge by the Saturday night deadline.

Professor Rob Kitchin is Director of NIRSA.

Speaking to KFM he says the real number of those liable for the tax is closer to 1.8 million.

“This is a tax on housing, not a tax on occupancy” he said.

“We know there’s 1.998 million houses and then we just work down for there”.

“So there’s 7 exemptions and 3 waivers and we probably come in a round 1.72 million houses are probably liable for the charge” he added.

 

[ClaireM]

The vast majority are against the charge? If that means they would rather not pay it but will do because they have to well it is hardly a surprise.

I would also rather not pay over half my income in Income Tax or pay VAT but I pay that because I have to too. I don't dislike one more than the other.

 

[mcloving]

The last minute rush has resulted in just over 800,000 people paying the charge before the deadline.

This is quite an achievement given

• the extraordinarily well run campaign against it which gave the impression that no one was paying it.
• The encouragement by some elected TDs of people to break the law
• The reluctance of most people to declare publicly that they were paying it
• The government's shocking handling of the issue
• The difficulties people experienced with the website

The government needs to extend the deadline now to the end of April to facilitate those who were misled into believing that the majority were against the charge.

They should also offer an incentive - such as giving a 10% discount on next year's charge to those who pay this year's charge before the end of April.

This is like a headline in the evening herald, it wasn't a majority.

 

[mcloving]

Its not a tax-its a 'charge', so I guess those that did not pay, are still tax compliant.

I would say it is it totally incorrect to say a majority have paid. Perhaps a majority have registered, but how many of those that registered are exempt?

I am not against a property tax or a charge for the provision of local services instead of increases in income tax-as per FG commentary. However, as the owner of buy to let property, I am strongly opposed to paying for the provision of local services enjoyed by my tenants. Those who avail of street cleaning, road maintenance, parks etc should be the people that pay-unless exempted by the state. Asking landlords to pay is just wrong.

Agree, tenants should pay and not owners, as in UK

 

[ClubMan]

The Irish Times today mentioned 1.8M housholds as being liable. I have seen all sorts of other figures mentioned in other reports in recent weeks. The figures coming from the powers that be for the numbers who have actually paid seem unclear. We don't seem to know the numerator or the denominator for sure so it seems premature for anybody to claim with any certaintly that x% of those liable have actually paid...

 

[Brendan Burgess]

We need to see a table like this when they have finished counting - the figures are examples only

total number of properties and units |1,998,000
Exempt| 298,000
Total number of "liable"properties|1,700,000
Qulaifying for waivers |30,000
Total waivers claimed|10,000
Total due to pay|1,670,000
Total registered|850,000
Total registered and paid|840,000

A majority will have paid when the Total Registered and Paid is greater than 50% of Total due to pay

 

[Shawady]

Just mentioned on Newstalk that the government's most up to date figures state that there is 1.5 million houses eligble to pay this charge, which would indicate a majority have paid.
This figure is the lowest I have heard yet and would be at odds with their own target of collecting €160 million.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Rob Kitchin has done a detailed analyis of the numbers on the "Ireland after Nama" blog

Eligible to pay|1,755,685
50% would be|877, 842
Paid |792, 892
Shortfall from majority|85,000

Given the detail of his analysis, this is the best estimate yet. If the government or anyone else disagrees with it, they can point out where the error is.

The only thing not referenced is the figure for the number who have paid. Where does this figure come from?

Brendan

 

[bazermc]

Just mentioned on Newstalk that the government's most up to date figures state that there is 1.5 million houses eligble to pay this charge, which would indicate a majority have paid.
.

Sounds like the government are reducing their estimate on a daily basis to make the picture look better that it is, I have heard 1.8m, 1.6m and now 1.5m.

At the end of the day, whether or not the government get a minor majority to pay the HC or not, the level of non compliance with the charge is striking and shows that the government have failed in their objective to raise revenue and have failed in a large part of their programme for government.

 

[Pique318]

the government have failed in their objective to raise revenue and have failed in a large part of their programme for government.

I find these types of comment strange.
Govt introduces tax/charge to raise revenue.
People don't pay said tax/charge.
Govt have failed.

Surely this is a catch-22. If the people pay, the govt succeeds. If the people don't pay, then the govt have failed and 'reneged' on their promises to raise revenue.
But it's the people's fault, so who is to blame?

My head hurts trying to reconcile that.

Also, back to Rob Kitchens figures. I don't see any mention of the NPPR houses removed from his figures, or was that inluded in the calculations?


His statement that

“This is a tax on housing, not a tax on occupancy”
“We know there’s 1.998 million houses and then we just work down for there”.

is slightly misleading based on the last census:
A Occupied by usual resident(s) of the household (Number) 1,649,408
B Occupied by visitors only (Number) 10,703
C Unoccupied - residents temporarily absent (Number) 45,283
D Unoccupied - vacant house (Number) 168,427
E Unoccupied - vacant flat (Number) 61,629
F Unoccupied - vacant holiday home (Number) 59,395
G Total housing stock ( A+B+C+D+E+F ) (Number) 1,994,845

There were 289000 vacant houses in the state according to the Census.

Also, according to that same census, the number of private households in the state during the last census was 1,654,208.



Hopefully the census figures are valid, and I would have thought the population hasn't grown much (if at all) in the last year.

 

[ClubMan]

It's Rob Kitchin by the way

[broken link removed]

 

[truthseeker]

The only thing not referenced is the figure for the number who have paid. Where does this figure come from?

Brendan

Its from here.

Rob Kitchin states that he has used the figures from namawinelake with a few updates.

From namawinelake:

Last night at midnight, the deadline for registering and paying the charge passed. RTE reported at 1am this morning that 805,569 properties were “registered for the €100 charge”. RTE is not reporting this matter accurately, this blogpost examines the facts.

If you read the RTE report today it says that “An estimated 805,569 properties were registered for the €100 charge by the time the deadline passed. 1.6 million households are liable for the tax.” You might conclude that just over half of households had paid the charge. But that’s not true – the RTE itself reports that 621,717 properties “were processed”, and “89,000 postal applications were still to be processed and the agency estimated 82,175 registrations were on hand at local authority offices across the country. Nearly 12,500 properties were registered for a waiver”

Add together 621,717 + 89,000 + 82,175 + 12,500 and you get 805,392 – in other words, the headline figures reported by RTE include “waivers”.

Its 805,392 - 12,500 = 792,892

 

[ClubMan]

Rob Kitchin has done a detailed analyis of the numbers on the "Ireland after Nama" blog

Eligible to pay|1,755,685
50% would be|877, 842
Paid |792, 892
Shortfall from majority|85,000

Given the detail of his analysis, this is the best estimate yet. If the government or anyone else disagrees with it, they can point out where the error is.

The only thing not referenced is the figure for the number who have paid. Where does this figure come from?

Brendan

LGMA are claiming 886K registered now.

[broken link removed]

Assuming that they have registered AND paid (including those on DD who have paid the first installment) then that would be just over 50% of 1,755,685.

The details are all still a bit vague for my liking though...

 

[Brendan Burgess]

The details are all still a bit vague for my liking though...

I suspect that they are just a bit short of the 50% but with a few late payments this week, it will bring them over the 50%. They can make the formal announcement then.

Brendan

 

[Sunny]

So what if just over 50% have paid. A lot of those who paid the charge disagree with it and probably wouldn't support any strong arm tactics on the part of Government or local authorities to collect the charge from those who didn't. I paid but I know plenty of people who didn't and I am not going to judge them.

The whole thing was and remains a complete fiasco.

P.S. I got the leaflet about the charge delivered last night. Not that is incompetence

 

[serotoninsid]

Assuming that they have registered AND paid (including those on DD who have paid the first installment) then that would be just over 50% of 1,755,685.

Lets work on facts and not assumptions. As an example I registered in the first week but mulled it over and rethought my position on it. There are likely to be many more like me.

I suspect that they are just a bit short of the 50% but with a few late payments this week, it will bring them over the 50%. They can make the formal announcement then.

yeah, a formal announcement of those that have registered and paid - not of those who have paid. The latter provides a much different statistic if it is made available.

So what if just over 50% have paid.

Absolutely right. People trying to put some 'spin' on this.

A lot of those who paid the charge disagree with it and probably wouldn't support any strong arm tactics on the part of Government or local authorities

The politics of fear at work. Will be rolled out for the referendum in the Summer once again no doubt.

I know plenty of people who didn't and I am not going to judge them.

+1

The whole thing was and remains a complete fiasco.

I don't have so much of an issue with the organisation of it - if I wanted to, I could have done so (paid it). However, I guess for the elderly and other marginalised groups, there was an issue - and payment via post office would have resolved this.

P.S. I got the leaflet about the charge delivered last night. Not that is incompetence

The irony. We are being pushed into a service charge - and even in the implementation of this, $ is wasted - as per your example.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Registered by the deadling |886,000
Registered after deadline|8,800
Add multiple registrations c. |10,000
Total registered |905,000
Less waivered|14,000
Total registered who should pay|891,000

Total paid - unknown

A majority have registered.
We don't know yet, whether a majority have paid or not.