Why (the state) bailing out housing market is a bad idea..mcwilliams indo article

[Howitzer]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

250,000 houses on daft etc is not generally 250,000 differnet houses. Many houses are represented several times so the figure could be halved I would think.

I suspect the number referred to comes from the CSO census of 2006 (which explicitly excluded holiday homes) rather than Daft figures which currently indicate 70K for sale units.

 

[Flax]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Enterprise Ireland were running around all this time practically begging people to take money and start a company - there were very few takers.

Not true.

I started a tech company and they weren't interested.

The referred me to my local county council who said they only have money for me if I'm starting a creche.

As a result, I've had to fund everything myself. It's been alive for 5 years now.

 

[cancan]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Not true.

I started a tech company and they weren't interested.

The referred me to my local county council who said they only have money for me if I'm starting a creche.

As a result, I've had to fund everything myself. It's been alive for 5 years now.

Was there an export angle to the business - I am based in the us and they have and had tons of meetings begging irish people to come home and start and export business, with money available.
If it's a local service business, I don't think that is their area, as their mandate is mainly focused on bring in export money.

 

[Jethro Tull]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Yes but look at aforability levels, that is a key also, remember in the dark old days when interest rates were 17% and houses were going for 20-30 grand people still struggled with afordability. That is a key measure.

affordability is one of the greatest misuse of words throughout the last 2 years. I can afford a shoebox in the middle of nowhere. Doesn't say I'm going to buy one. In fact I can afford a quite decent house in a reasonable location. I don't want to buy one tho as I think they are still very poor value and I can rent a similar property for less than the interest on a mortgage.

I bet you could afford to pay €50 for a pint of guinness, are you ever likely to actually do that any time soon tho (assuming the price of a pint rises to €50)?

Once the work dries up, the population won't increase anything likes been suggested here. Thats a fantasy. Ditto the easy credit. Which started this madness.

Agreed

I don't quite understand this reverence for mcwilliams

I don't rever McWilliams, however i respect his judgement and his ability to stand up to the sheep in the 'so called' media we have in this country. He is still being dismissed as a crank while clowns like Austin hughes still get to peddle their wares on RTE and elsewhere without question to their dubious assumptions or mentioning the caveat that he has been constantly wrong over the last 18-24 months (especially in relation to interest rate predictions)

Better get those supports in place so. Polygamy, polygamy, polygamy. It's the only viable solution.

LOL, you've got my vote

 

[MrMan]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

I don't rever McWilliams, however i respect his judgement and his ability to stand up to the sheep in the 'so called' media we have in this country. He is still being dismissed as a crank while clowns like Austin hughes still get to peddle their wares on RTE and elsewhere without question to their dubious assumptions or mentioning the caveat that he has been constantly wrong over the last 18-24 months

Some could just as easily say that he is leading the sheep today.

 

[cancan]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

The sheep just found a new shepard.
The gave up coke, and are gulping down pepsi now, not realising that they both are bad for you.

 

[Jethro Tull]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Some could just as easily say that he is leading the sheep today.

I disagree, property bears are still in the minority in Irealnd IMO.

 

[television]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

affordability is one of the greatest misuse of words throughout the last 2 years. I can afford a shoebox in the middle of nowhere. Doesn't say I'm going to buy one. In fact I can afford a quite decent house in a reasonable location. I don't want to buy one tho as I think they are still very poor value and I can rent a similar property for less than the interest on a mortgage.

I bet you could afford to pay €50 for a pint of guinness, are you ever likely to actually do that any time soon tho (assuming the price of a pint rises to €50)?



Agreed



I don't rever McWilliams, however i respect his judgement and his ability to stand up to the sheep in the 'so called' media we have in this country. He is still being dismissed as a crank while clowns like Austin hughes still get to peddle their wares on RTE and elsewhere without question to their dubious assumptions or mentioning the caveat that he has been constantly wrong over the last 18-24 months (especially in relation to interest rate predictions)



LOL, you've got my vote

So lets get this right, in the long term you expect high unemployment, most people renting, stagnent population, low house prices. Where even if houses are affordable in terms of people incomes they are going to rent

A tad gloomy. And not very balanced.

 

[Sunny]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

There are steps that can be done to avoid a mass panic of people who only know up/ and don't understand down.
Stability of some form is key, as people tend to over react in situations like this, making things worse.

.

What steps would you take?

 

[Jethro Tull]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

So lets get this right, in the long term you expect high unemployment, most people renting, stagnent population, low house prices. Where even if houses are affordable in terms of people incomes they are going to rent

A tad gloomy. And not very balanced.

where did I say that?

I said that the term 'affordibilty' is a myth. Buyers will not return to the market in their droves until the difference between servicing a mortgage and the cost of renting narrows.

I expect house prices to lower (from historic highs), unemployment to rise (from historic lows), possibly gloomy but realistic.

Sorry if its unpatriotic to criticise Ireland inc. but thats the way i see it

 

[sandymount]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Dear Brian,

I am a FF supporting developer. I have made loads of money in the last ten years but spent most of it at the Galway races, and on a helicopter. I have built 100 house and apartments and a Spar in Ballygobackwards and there not sellin' eventhough they a priced to sell at 250k for a one bedroom with one small window facing north. It is only a 2 hour commute to Longford.

Send me some money.

Thanks

Sean

 

[television]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

where did I say that?

I said that the term 'affordibilty' is a myth. Buyers will not return to the market in their droves while the difference between servicing a mortgage and the cost of renting narrows.

I expect house prices to lower (from historic highs), unemployment to rise (from historic lows), possibly gloomy but realistic.

Sorry if its unpatriotic to criticise Ireland inc. but thats the way i see it

Your forgetting your aggrement with Aircobra where he said population to remain stagnent.

 

[cancan]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

What steps would you take?

Prevent/encourage banks from over tightening their credit strings for starters.
If the banks ain't giving out money, people can't do much - it's not just the mortgage market that gets hit, all business day to day, all consumer spending, enterprise etc
There are a lot of people who were not irresponsible with their spending, yet they are getting punished for others mistakes.

 

[Jethro Tull]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Your forgetting your aggrement with Aircobra where he said population to remain stagnent.

I agreed that a population explosion is unlikely with the shadow of an impending recession ahead. Who the hell would come here looking for work at the moment?

 

[Jethro Tull]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

There are a lot of people who were not irresponsible with their spending, yet they are getting punished for others mistakes.

Banks will still lend, however they are finally becoming more prudent in how much they lend and who they will lend to. People who want to borrow responsibly will still be accomodated.

 

[television]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

where did I say that?

I said that the term 'affordibilty' is a myth. Buyers will not return to the market in their droves while the difference between servicing a mortgage and the cost of renting narrows.

Btw I'm still searching for where i speculated on population trends.

I expect house prices to lower (from historic highs), unemployment to rise (from historic lows), possibly gloomy but realistic.

Sorry if its unpatriotic to criticise Ireland inc. but thats the way i see it

maybe you should look at some other factors, like oil prices being at a historic high, the credit crunch which will end, europan interest rates not set to rise by much more, A new president in the US, a thriving China and India that will stimulate global demand not just take away jobs. All these things have potential to positivaly effect the irish economy. Its not all doom and gloom. In the long run there is oppurtunity. I dont mind if people keep renting in the long term, I am all for it in fact, brecause in the long run that will have to mean there is income in owning property.

 

[television]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

I agreed that a population explosion is unlikely with the shadow of an impending recession ahead. Who the hell would come here looking for work at the moment?

3 Things

1. Long term population increase is not as determined by short term immigration.
2. We still have low unemployment in ireland at 6%
3. Around 25000 people at a guess will come this year looking for work

 

[MrMan]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

I disagree, property bears are still in the minority in Irealnd IMO.

Not on AAM though.

 

[Jethro Tull]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

I am all for it in fact, brecause in the long run that will have to mean there is income in owning property.

Only if the potential rent at least covers the interest and capital repayments. Not happening at todays prices. Add in the very real prospect of further price falls and very little prospect of price increases in the short to medium term and I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree on whether property investment is a good investment at present

1. Long term population increase is not as determined by short term immigration.

agreed

2. We still have low unemployment in ireland at 6%

this is rising on a monthly basis, nearly every month seems to bring a new record increase to the live register.

3. Around 25000 people at a guess will come this year looking for work

we'll know this at the end of the year. Looking for work and finding work are 2 seperate things.

 

[Jethro Tull]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Not on AAM though.

I disagree, most of them were banned or simply walked away to the property pin