Why is Bitcoin "digital gold" crashing right now?

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Hi Fella

We have gone over this before. You have paid $7,000 or whatever, for something which you know has no intrinsic value, because there are people out there who think it is worth that. There is absolutely no basis for valuing this at anything other than Zero.

That is crazy for someone who understands gambling and risk.

Brendan
 
And he has been taken in by the mania.

Brendan

It's not like I have 100% of my wealth in Bitcoin I have less than 2% I would encourage people to diversify . I don't think holding Bitcoin as part of a balanced portfolio is irrational.
Hi Fella

We have gone over this before. You have paid $7,000 or whatever, for something which you know has no intrinsic value, because there are people out there who think it is worth that. There is absolutely no basis for valuing this at anything other than Zero.

That is crazy for someone who understands gambling and risk.

Brendan

One of the main things your learn from gambling is the market is good at putting a fair price on something. In an openly traded market with buyers and sellers we should reach a fair price. Over years of arbitrage you would consistently win over time taking bigger prices at bookmakers and laying at exchanges. The exchanged reflect the real price more often than not.

So why is Bitcoin not worth 0 on the exchanges?
 
Rarity and expense probably contribute to the price of gold.
Scarcity is front and centre when it comes to the price of gold. It's ludicrous to suggest otherwise. Look at any study that examines the essential characteristics of a store of value and scarcity is at the top of the list.

But it's appearance in jewelry and industry is very important.
As jewelry it is clearly being used for the most part as a store of value. The industrial use cases are peripheral. I've cited data from the World Gold Council (WGC) previously to back this up.

I wonder if people who compare BTC to gold have every seen gold jewelry or ornaments?
I wonder if the people who have gold gathering dust and stored professionally in vaults around the world have ever seen it either?

Your reasoning would have had you buying tulips during tulipmania.
Again, we've been over this. Like his Dukeness, you have never been objective enough to examine the facets of bitcoin that are positive in terms of use as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Tulipania is in no way relevant to this conversation as it doesn't fulfill any of those characteristics.
On the contrary, I love Bitcoin. If people are prepared to pay $15,000 for something which is worth nothing, I can make money out of it.
Thank you for your service Brendan. Because of the irrational stance that you and others take at the earlier stages of the adoption of digital assets, it allows opportunity for others to benefit and capitalise on that.

But if people didn't like gold in jewelry would it still be that expensive?
The price of gold is a construct of its use as a store of value - and not industrial uses. Its use as jewelry is that of a store of value for the most part also (as confirmed by the World Gold Council). If this wasn't the case, why would its price far, far exceed its production cost?

I think the most likely thing is Bitcoin is around in some form for good , its price stabilises and it becomes a more mainstream store of wealth . I absolutely do not foresee it going to zero or worthless . Therefore I'm going to take a stake in Bitcoin.
That price volatility dissipates over time as adoption and overall market capitalisation expands is entirely logical.

The thing is why try to compare Bitcoin to something else ?, it's not gold ,its not art , its not digital gold and its not tulips. So these debates end up comparing it to gold and they go around in circles about Gold having value and been used in industry or whatever. You can't compare Bitcoin to anything else its a new technology I do think it has a place and offers an alternative to government backed money.
If people are not prepared to compare the general characteristics point by point against FIAT money or Gold, there's little chance they will be open to identifying the value add in terms of its ability to be transferred digitally and uncensored on a peer to peer basis, it's superior divisibility and its locked in fixed supply.
52 week high 13,796 52 week low 4,106 :eek: This is meant to be a currency for heaven's sake, a store of value.
As well you know, this has been explained to you umpteen times. You don't roll out a brand new asset starting from ground zero without price volatility. That volatility declines as its overall market capitalisation increases and as the price discovery process and Bitcoin adoption progresses. To that very point, https://en.longhash.com/news/data-shows-bitcoins-price-volatility-has-been-declining-over-its-10-year-history (the data) shows that Bitcoin's price volatility continues to decrease over time. Meanwhile, a conventional asset that has been front and centre of the old economy over the past century (Oil) has been far more volatile than Bitcoin this year - yet you don't get in any way animated about that.
Its volatility doesn't negate it from being a good store of value unless the market participant has the lowest of time preferences. At the end of the day, it has been the best performing asset of 2019, of the entire last decade and it is currently the best performing asset of 2020.
As a means of exchange/currency use, volatility is a drawback - but volatility will decrease over time and usability will improve dramatically. At that point, its performance improves considerably as a currency.

But that comment suggests to me that you are trying to convince yourself to be part of the cult.
Again with the emotive and inflammatory 'cultist' jibe. This from a guy who - as part of these discussions has never once been objective enough to outline the aspects of Bitcoin which are positive and rarely explored the deficiencies in the FIAT money system.

That's what surprised me about Fella buying BTC. It's clearly worth nothing. And he has been taken in by the mania.
Once again with the 'mania'. Where is this 'mania' to be found? There was market over-exuberance in late 2017 but we're a couple of years on from that.
How exactly would Duke pay for these pints in Bitcoin?
In this instance, quite easily if Dukey agrees to it.
 
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We have gone over this before. You have paid $7,000 or whatever, for something which you know has no intrinsic value, because there are people out there who think it is worth that. There is absolutely no basis for valuing this at anything other than Zero.
If it has zero value today, go out onto the markets this very moment and short it then. Put your intrinsically valueless FIAT money where your mouth is Brendan.
On the intrinsic value of Bitcoin, it's no more no less than FIAT money on that score. However, it has some serious value adds which FIAT doesn't. The problem with the FIAT money system historically has been that people can tinker with it - with excessive money printing etc. Nobody can do that with Bitcoin. It has been hard set to have a fixed supply. You fail to acknowledge that as a feature and benefit.

It's not like I have 100% of my wealth in Bitcoin I have less than 2% I would encourage people to diversify . I don't think holding Bitcoin as part of a balanced portfolio is irrational.
Precisely this. It's irrational not to on this basis as it's asymmetric risk that you're taking on.

That is crazy for someone who understands gambling and risk.
On the contrary. See above. With a 2% allocation, he understands risk far better than you do. It's a case of asymmetric risk.
 
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But how? I'm not aware of any pub that accepts Bitcoin are you?
This thread is about Bitcoin's use case as a store of value and/or digital gold. You're quite fixated on transactional use. However, it's quite simple - have Dukey accept the offer and all will be revealed if/when BTC goes to 20K.
 
We have gone over all the points many times.

There was a cult behind tulipmania. They argued that a single bulb of Viceroy was worth

Two lasts of wheat448ƒ
Four lasts of rye558ƒ
Four fat oxen480ƒ
Eight fat swine240ƒ
Twelve fat sheep120ƒ
Two hogsheads of wine70ƒ
Four tuns of beer32ƒ
Two tuns of butter192ƒ
1,000 lbs. of cheese120ƒ
A complete bed100ƒ
A suit of clothes80ƒ
A silver drinking cup60ƒ
Total2500ƒ

Anyone who claimed that it wasn't was told that the market determines the value. If someone was prepared to pay all that for a single bulb, then it was worth that and was not just a tulip bulb.

It was the same with the dot.com mania.

I remember reading Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds and I wondered how could so many clever people behave so stupidly.

And we see it again now with Bitcoin.

Brendan
 
As you're now in Bitcoin, did you consider diversifying across the thousands of other crypto options?

With a diversified portfolio generally and only 2% of his assets in Bitcoin, there wouldn't be much advantage to diversifying within the 2%.

It's like when someone wants to invest €10k in the stock market and that represents only 1% of their wealth, I tell them to buy just one share. If you are investing 100% of your wealth in the stock market, you need to diversify it over many shares.

Brendan
 
However, it's quite simple - have Dukey accept the offer and all will be revealed if/when BTC goes to 20K.
That's not answering the question to be fair and you know it. As far as I am aware nowhere in Ireland accepts Bitcoin to buy pints, so the Duke could not accept the offer.....
 
We have gone over all the points many times.
Indeed we have Brendan - and never once have you acknowledged one single characteristic of Bitcoin that contributes towards it being a good store of value or means of exchange. I can see a rationale in arriving at a viewpoint that on the whole, you feel it's inferior. I can't if you can't acknowledge its positive attributes and include those in forming your opinion on it. That's not credible.

There was a cult behind tulipmania.
I see few attributes in tulips as a store of value or means of exchange but how was it a 'cult'? You mean people that held a certain opinion?

Anyone who claimed that it wasn't was told that the market determines the value. If someone was prepared to pay all that for a single bulb, then it was worth that and was not just a tulip bulb.
Except that the analogy is misplaced. Perhaps if you likened Tulipmania to the Irish housing boom n' bust, those would be comparatively closer.

Take a look at the comparison of Gold, Bitcoin and FIAT money graded against the recognised characteristics of a good store of value in the chart below. As you can see, Bitcoin brings something tangible to the table. Now add your tulips to that list and assess them against those characteristics. Do the same with your 'scarce poetry' that you mentioned previously. Tulips don't score as a store of value. Bitcoin does in many ways.

It was the same with the dot.com mania.
There was major over exuberance in the dot com bubble. Many investors got badly burnt as a consequence. However, out of that came something entirely relevant. Most tech startups were vaporised. However, to say that there wasn't something tangible at the heart of it is inaccurate as emerging from it came the likes of Amazon, Ebay, Qualcomm, Cisco and many others. Furthermore, that same wave of innovation led on to the development of the other FAANG companies - who today have a combined market capitalisation of $5 Trillion.

I have not seen anyone here who has not acknowledged that the vast majority of cryptocurrency projects will fall by the wayside. They will be survived by category leaders (as there are a multitude of use cases - not just the Bitcoin-centric store of value/medium of exchange use case that we discuss here).

I remember reading Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds and I wondered how could so many clever people behave so stupidly. And we see it again now with Bitcoin.
As outlined above, Tulipmania wasn't based on anything tangible - so lets take that out of the equation entirely. The technology implicated in the dotcom boom was very much tangible and shapes our world today. Can people become irrational and both overvalue and undervalue something? Absolutely. However, that doesn't leave Bitcoin with a price of zero. The only frame of reference that you have is the 2017 price surge when Bitcoin had been through that cycle four times previously. This is nothing new - and it doesn't stop Bitcoin. Taking the surges out of the equation, over the long term, it's price goes up with adoption. Bear in mind too that the dot com bubble was a factor of EIGHT times larger than crypto.

Nobody has suggested that investing in digital assets right now is anything other than high risk. However, when you look at @Fella 's allocation of 2% of his portfolio in Bitcoin - sized on the basis of an exposure to asymmetric risk, how is that 'behaving stupidly'?

Maybe you should take your readings of 'Extraordinary Popular Delusions' and the 'Madness of Crowds' as a case in point for the Dow and S&P right now that demonstrate NO earthly rationale or connection with the economic realities as it stands today.

Characteristics of a Good Store of Value (Source):

4685
 
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As you're now in Bitcoin, did you consider diversifying across the thousands of other crypto options?
So you're leaving that open to cryptos that pursue entirely different use cases? If not, and it's the shortlist of cryptos in the same category as Bitcoin, which would you suggest and why? Don't get me wrong - I'm quite happy to accept that Bitcoin is not a done deal - but I'm curious to know as it stands today what you would suggest as being superior technologically and in terms of network effect to usurp it.
That's not answering the question to be fair and you know it. As far as I am aware nowhere in Ireland accepts Bitcoin to buy pints, so the Duke could not accept the offer.....
As pointed out, your question is...
1. Off topic for this thread.
2. A hypothetical as Dukey has not accepted
3. Rhetorical - as it's been discussed many times with you on other threads. Bitcoin's use as it stands today is limited as a medium of exchange. You want me to acknowledge that as it seems this satisifes the set view you take on it - as it seems to your mind, if something doesn't fulfill a role at this very moment, then it never can and never will. Technology and innovation doesn't stand still and you're wrong in your assumptions. If I were to get on the upside of that little wager, Dukey will be paying in Bitcoin though. For that, he would have to back his convictions and accept the wager.
I'm pretty confident we've covered all of this in a previous thread - but if you want to discuss further, I'd suggest opening up a separate thread as it's separate from the digital gold/store of value use case being discussed here.
 
As outlined above, Tulipmania wasn't based on anything tangible - so lets take that out of the equation entirely.

Hi tecate

You are missing the point.

Clever people take leave of their senses. They lose touch with reality. They take a bag of hot air and say "it's limited in supply, it's not controlled by government, it can't be censored" therefore it's worth $20,000. My toenails meet all those criteria but no one wants to buy them.

You are subject to a delusion. Lots of others are as well. Even when it does go to zero, you will deny it. You will say that it was a conspiracy of fiat money governments to control the people.

Read Popular Delusions and you will see yourself in it.

Brendan
 
As pointed out, your question is...
1. Off topic for this thread.

You are the one claiming someone can buy you pints with Bitcoin, not me! I am just asking how they would be able to do this. Afterall, you have stated:

In this instance, quite easily if Dukey agrees to it.

However, it's quite simple - have Dukey accept the offer and all will be revealed if/when BTC goes to 20K.

So if it's this easy and simple, shouldn't you let us know????


3. Rhetorical - as it's been discussed many times with you on other threads. Bitcoin's use as it stands today is limited as a medium of exchange. You want me to acknowledge that as it seems this satisifes the set view you take on it - as it seems to your mind, if something doesn't fulfill a role at this very moment, then it never can and never will. Technology and innovation doesn't stand still and you're wrong in your assumptions. If I were to get on the upside of that little wager, Dukey will be paying in Bitcoin though. For that, he would have to back his convictions and accept the wager.
I'm just asking you a simple question that's all....you're saying someone could buy you pints with Bitcoin and I'm just asking how......
 
My toenails meet all those criteria but no one wants to buy them.
Boss I was impressed by your scarce poetry. But now you launch your toenails. Next it will be your finger nails. I see a proliferation of Brendanalia though you are unlikely to match Bitcoin with its 2,000 lookalikes.
 
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As well you know, this has been explained to you umpteen times. You don't roll out a brand new asset starting from ground zero without price volatility.
Now I know what being quoted out of context means. My post was in response to the following:
Fella said:
if you look at Bitcoin now over the last year or so it hasn't actually moved that much
The fact that you have explained its volatility umpteen times actually reinforces my distancing myself from Fella's opinion that btc volatility is now a thing of the past.
 
I'll spend my life following efficient market hypothesis I've seen the power of the markets and the knowledge of the crowd. I might miss some things , I will always ignore the advice of "experts" that say Tesla / Bitcoin / or whatever the next craze is is overvalued. I am a firm believer that long term i'll come out on top with this strategy. I firmly believe that I am buying Bitcoin at a fair value , there are enough crazy people saying it should be 100k and others saying its worthless. We could argue all day forever on askaboutmoney but it will never change the price of Bitcoin , there are literally millions of people buying and selling. Maybe everyone is delusional.

But one thing that confuses me is how can Brendan be so sure all these people that are delusional buying Bitcoin are going to stop and let it go to zero? How can you predict the behaviour of delusional people surely if they are delusional today they will be delusional tomorrow and the next day?
 
You are missing the point.
And whilst you claim I am missing the point, you are conveniently skirting around it.

Clever people take leave of their senses. They lose touch with reality. They take a bag of hot air and say "it's limited in supply, it's not controlled by government, it can't be censored" therefore it's worth $20,000.
And here is the evidence that you're skirting around the point. I asked you for once to consider Bitcoin against the universally accepted characteristics of a good store of value (as per the chart in my post above). You won't do that. You won't acknowledge any facet or characteristic of Bitcoin in this context and that to me lacks both objectivity and credibility.

My toenails meet all those criteria but no one wants to buy them.
Yeah, against those characteristics, your 'toenails' rate just under tulips and your poetry (although his Dukeness is a fan so that might drive it up the rankings).
You are subject to a delusion. Lots of others are as well. Even when it does go to zero, you will deny it. You will say that it was a conspiracy of fiat money governments to control the people.
Your premise is flawed from the outset. You are suggesting the whole time that there is nothing tangible at the heart of digital assets. As regards Bitcoin going to zero, I've acknowledged that as a possibility (although it's one that I think is unlikely as it stands today). I have acknowledged that Bitcoin could be superseded by another digital asset for these use cases (although that's not my thinking as it stands today).
I have never once mentioned anything about conspiracy over two years of discussion of this topic here. Government regulation and how that interaction with Bitcoin pans out over the coming years has a role to play for sure. That's been acknowledged by me and by your fellow no-coiners.
If it goes to zero, of course I will accept it has the price of zero. I have outlined a number of obstacles that Bitcoin must overcome to bring about greater adoption.
On the flip side, you have...
- never acknowledged a single facet or positive characteristic of Bitcoin.
- never acknowledged that you could be wrong in your thesis re. Bitcoin going to zero.
- already gotten it wrong in your past predictions of Bitcoin going to zero...in 2018 and in 2019...so much so that you've given up on calling it - and leaving it open ended to the point where the suggestion is that it will happen 'sometime'. The average life of a FIAT currency is 27 years. Bitcoin is already the majority of the way there.

Read Popular Delusions and you will see yourself in it.
I haven't read Popular Delusions but I have read a couple of books on market psychology. ALL markets can be irrational. Bitcoin/Crypto won't be any different in that respect - but that doesn't mean to say that there isn't something tangible at the heart of it. Just as there was something tangible at the heart of the technology that led to the dot com boom. I've stepped out of this market on a number of occasions to account for what I perceived to be over-exuberance. I expect to do so another few times as this progresses.

You are the one claiming someone can buy you pints with Bitcoin, not me!
I made a simple statement - not this bigged up 'claim' that you speak of. As you were already told, it's a mut point as his Dukeness hasn't taken me up on the offer in any event.

So if it's this easy and simple, shouldn't you let us know????
Let me be very clear on this Firefly - now more than ever - the answer is NO!

I'm just asking you a simple question that's all....you're saying someone could buy you pints with Bitcoin and I'm just asking how......
How? Here's an example of a Bitcoin Lightning payment.
 
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how can Brendan be so sure all these people that are delusional buying Bitcoin are going to stop and let it go to zero? How can you predict the behaviour of delusional people surely if they are delusional today they will be delusional tomorrow and the next day?

Very good question. They have been delusional for two or three years now, so why might they not be delusional forever?

I think that things eventually revert to their fundamental value. So the stock market can be overvalued or undervalued for years.

It is a mystery though what is keeping this bag of hot air up so high.

Brendan
 
. I asked you for once to consider Bitcoin against the universally accepted characteristics of a good store of value (as per the chart in my post above). You won't do that. You won't acknowledge any facet or characteristic of Bitcoin in this context and that to me lacks credibility.

Hi tecate

You have posted that chart often and I assume that it has been answered often.

You repeat the same points time and again and it's not possible to keep up with you.

You miss the fundamental point that there is no fundamental value to Bitcoin. If there were a fundamental value, what is it and how is it calculated.

The hint is in the name "a store of value".

My toenails meet all the same criteria as Bitcoin in that chart. But they are the same as Bitcoin in that they lack any fundamental value.

Sorry, but you can't just wish away this really critical point by saying that its value is what people say it is.

Brendan
 
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