Whose Bitcoin analysis do you respect?

[Negotiator]

Moved from the Bitcoin Valuation Game thread

I make it 1-1. But who cares...we won the Slam against the ole enemy in their back garden!!!!

Cool.....I'll take 1-1 so. Now it's all down to Dec 31st!

It really was a cracker wasn't it....how crucial was Johnny's kick in the match against France. They all played their part though, super stuff!

 

[TheBigShort]

Well done fpalb. The user who arguably has posted the most insight into the workings of bitcoin, managed to most accurately call a price three months in advance.
Not only that s/he did it in the midst of a surging bull market.

If fpalb were to post tomorrow that bitcoin is worthless, I for one would sit up and take notice.

 

[Negotiator]

If fpalb were to post tomorrow that bitcoin is worthless, I for one would sit up and take notice.

fpalb has a prediction of $10k for Dec 31st.....should we sit up and take notice of that or only if he says it's going to zero. If he posted it was going to $20k should we do the same?

You're saying we should sit up and take notice only if he shares your view.....you're gas!

Edit: Posted as a result of mistaken identity! (stop laughing Brendan! )

 

[TheBigShort]

Are you mixing me up with someone else?

 

[Negotiator]

Are you mixing me up with someone else?

Sorry Shortie it's too early on a Sunday morning for me.....I thought it was Brendan. Anytime I see the word zero in these threads I just assume it's Brendan!

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Well done fpalb. The user who arguably has posted the most insight into the workings of bitcoin, managed to most accurately call a price three months in advance.
Not only that s/he did it in the midst of a surging bull market.

If fpalb were to post tomorrow that bitcoin is worthless, I for one would sit up and take notice.

I think fp would be the first to admit that he was lucky. He was 40% wrong in his 3 week forecast which was won by the Fly with an impressive single figure % error. fp is 30% wrong on his 3 month forecast which happens to be the best of a bad lot.

 

[TheBigShort]

True, even if s/he had the worst prediction the point still stands. Given his/her insights and reasoned posts in all of this, I would still take notice if s/he called bitcoin out to be zero tomorrow.
That does not say I would agree, but just I assume any such call by fpalb would have reasoned analysis behind it other than the 'flat-earthist' arguement.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

fpalb has a prediction of $10k for Dec 31st.....should we sit up and take notice of that or only if he says it's going to zero. If he posted it was going to $20k should we do the same?

You're saying we should sit up and take notice only if he shares your view.....you're gas!

This mistaken identify highlights a very good point. It really does not matter what the Bitcoin faithful think. If they think it will go to $100k , it doesn't change the fact that it is worth nothing. If they say that it's worth nothing, it doesn't matter. (Having said that, if one of the Bitcoin faithful, and fp in particular, did actually produce some table or analysis to quantify its value, I would definitely study it.)

The Duke's analysis of this issue, and many other issues on askaboutmoney has been excellent. If he changed his mind and came up with some analysis to show that Bitcoin was worth between $7,000 and $10,000, I would certainly sit up and take notice. I might not agree but I would be a lot less comfortable with my spreadbet.

Brendan

 

[Negotiator]

It really does not matter what the Bitcoin faithful think

I wouldn't classify myself as part of the Bitcoin faithful per se. I have mentioned in my earlier posts that Bitcoin has inferior tech compared to some of the newer cryptos that have vastly improved upon Bitcoin. That said, I really don't see the value of Bitcoin going to zero or anywhere close to it in the near future....nor do I see it going to $100k. However I don't rule out the possibility of either scenarios.

 

[TheBigShort]

The Duke's analysis of this issue, and many other issues on askaboutmoney has been excellent. If he changed his mind and came up with some analysis to show that Bitcoin was worth between $7,000 and $10,000, I would certainly sit up and take notice. I might not agree but I would be a lot less comfortable with my spreadbet.

I think the problem here is that you have a set view on what that analysis should be. There is plenty of analysis available to offer reasons as to why bitcoin has value. It is up to everyone up to decipher that analysis themselves and attach a monetary value should they wish to. Nobody has provided you with analysis that would make you consider bitcoin has value, that is fair enough. But that is wholly different from someone else taking the same analysis, or other analysis, and seeing value in it
I have read a fair amount about bitcoin and I am the first to admit that when it comes to the nitty-gritty tech side I am somewhat watery on its workings. However, I could say the same about satellite technology and its deliver of live football matches to my TV.
However, I do understand the concept of bitcoin and satellite TV. But understanding the concept in itself is insufficient to deliver real value. Instead, I rely on whether or not it the product, service or thing, is performing its functions. For satellite TV, that is obvious. For bitcoin, less obvious. So in order to find out I bought some, then I transferred some, then I bought some more, then I sold some, then I sold some more.
So in terms of performining its function as a decentralised, peer to peer trustless currency, it works. I see value in that.
Not that it is not without its problems, but it might be worth considering that before satellite TV was rolled out, black & white TV also had its problems. That said, the concept of transferring moving picture images into every home has real value and in turn the TV prevailed overcoming the challenges of picture distortions, aerial interference etc.

So is the concept of a decentralised currency like bitcoin sustainable? I think it is, but as has been alluded to by Negotiator there are other cryptos with superior technology coming on-stream.

Bitcoin may go to zero, nobody doubts that. But I doubt that it will go to zero because it is worthless today. It will go to zero if better technology replaces it.

 

[TheBigShort]

What I now find is that far from a thing of beauty bitcoin consists of the ugliest mathematics known to Man. Whilst hash cryptography is of mild mathematical interest, the performing of billions of trial and error hash puzzles with zero intellectual input is frankly obscene.

Im the first to admit that when digging into the nitty-gritty of operations of bitcoin I am somewhat weak in overall understanding.
So this viewpoint carries weight insofar as bitcoin not having value.
However, it think this view has been countered before elsewhere. And to my mind there are a couple of questions 1) isnt this is what millions upon millions of computers do anyway everyday just for different programs and applications?

2) isnt this how the fiat monetary system under fractional reserve system works? Expanding credit lines to borrowers.

It is to a great extent a very similar operation with the notable exception that bitcoin is limited, fiat is not.
Not without merit is the bitcoin 'offspring' arguement but then that is easily countered by the thousands upon thousands of fiat currencies that have come and gone.