from a historical point of view, investing in the stock market when the fed is cutting rates is always the best time to do it. oil wont harm the world economy until it hits 200 dollars, its still really cheap considering the value we get from it. gold will most definitetly hit 1000 an ounce . its human nature to drive things to new records and the speculators will ensure that it hits 1000
The oil price has reached $106pb and OPEC don't seem that bothered. Combined with Eubor and Libor on another freak run again, things are not looking good for corporate finance. AFAIK the only decent multi million deal to get off the blocks in Ireland during this credit crunch was the hotel group financed by AIB [2008].Where did you get this figure for 200 dollars from ?
As the credit crunch default amongst the banks and hedge fund has been revalued at $1trillion [a trillion used to be a term to describe an unimaginable amount of money] the downside in the markets looks inevitable. Good news is elusive, IMO the downplay will continue for a while...Carlyle Capital Corporation, the fund manager backed by the giant private equity firm Carlyle Group, has not been able to meet several payment demands.The company said it received margin calls from seven financing groups that totalled $37m and it was not able to meet four of those requests. A margin call is a payment to guarantee a much larger debt or investment.Carlyle Capital invested in assets backed by US mortgages, which have been hard to value since the credit crunch.
according to the papers ......
The Banks wuill squeeze further now and the level of debt that has been ongoing for the past few years will come to an abrupt halt or definite slowdown.
few positive investment opportunities in the near future.
what else can one do?what I would like to know is , is America going into recession or worse into a depression
It is amazing how things can turn so fast. I've lost so much money from last June that I don't want to think about it!
Not thinking about it would be pretty foolish, you can lose a lot more in the current climate. There's so much information out there about the current conditions it's possible to see that this is going to be a long run bear cycle, no light at the end of the tunnel and IMHO, few positive investment opportunities in the near future.
I believe we are half way through a 15 year bear / sideways market,
I find it difficult to short the s/markets because its natural trend is growth, so unless a person has sophisticated knowledge it's not beneficial and easy to get caught. Why do you think shorting commodities, will gold not balloon again as a safe haven as well as commodity sectors with strong fundamentals? The world may not have as much cheap money sloshing around but nonetheless there is plenty requiring investment. It has to go somewhere.So, do you see it taking 7/8 years for the global economy to get back on track or start a fresh?
If I was "timing", I would be short US financial stocks & major indices, not sure about present Eur/US rate and I would be paying a lot of attention to hedge funds at the moment i.e.do they have short positions, but are margin calls making them close these and commodity positions and giving stocks/commodities a false high level? comments?
I hope you get your information from sources other than some idiot journalist - if not, you get what you deserve.
Systemic Margin Call? http://www.aleablog.com/325-billion-systemic-margin-call-for-banks/
Checkout for codes for further information on this.I used the below but with [].
(url=http://www.vbulletin.com ) (img)[broken link removed])(/url)
To post the graphs, right click on them and copy link location. Should have you sorted.
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