When will the downward spiral in the stockmarket end?

Is a weak dollar really that bad for the U.S.? Will it not allow U.S. products to appear discounted globally. If China dumped the greenback would they be shooting themselves in the foot...

This is a very important point that I have considered too, so you may be right about the case of China. However many OPEC countries have muted about changing their currency weighting but this however may be just a shot across the bough to the Fed. Who knows? America's fiscal policy of trying to print its way out of trouble is something Zimbabwe tried, but failed with 150,000% inflation. Btw not saying America will follow the same path, but their monetary policy will cause inflation through printing extraordinary amounts of money.

America needs to consolidate and face the hangover now, rather than delay and add more juices of liquidity. Certainly their 4.28% yielding treasury bonds over thirty years don't sound appealing to anyone other than OPEC and Chinese.

I would dearly love to hear about the state of American affairs from someone else, maybe more versed or expert in these affairs. Hopefully my impression is wrong.
 
Or Look at the graph on this page;

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2005/12/100_year_bull_b.html

You will see that the ISEQ has being tracking the DOW albeit with more vloatility

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EISEQ&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5EDJI

The Dow looks like it is 10 years into a sideways market, similar to that experienced after all the other bull markets.

If you have big lumps to invest, you had better get your timing right.
If you are regularly investing (dollar cost averaging) a sideways market can be just as good as any to make money.
Personally I'm in my thirties and don't mind another 10 years of sideways markets, as long as the big Kahuna eventually comes before retirement!
 
If you have big lumps to invest, you had better get your timing right...

First time ever in the history of the financial system, the US Banks have deficits in their fractional lending asset base. Is this is quirk or a real black hole emerging as a result of over exhuberance in the Abx and Credit markets from 2006 forward.

So timing, never a more apt word, to get out of positions. Markets can rise as well as fall and these are based primarily on monetary stability, something America has in little supply. Their fiscal system could go either way, based on the enclosed [broken link removed] or for those not bothered reading, try out this video link below

http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=EBZ81hmZuNk
Please watch it takes 9 minutes to realise the true facts.

Paper monies should never have been allowed. The consequences of allowing free printing that is politically motivated would eventually led to major problems and adversity. If this black hole within banks continues to increase then stock markets are going to suffer and big time. Can someone give me a second opinion and confirm my doom monger philosophy, either way. I sincerely would love to be wrong and be bullish, but facts are facts??

Re USA, only one candidate in their elections can smell the roses, the rest are concerned with the status quo of big government. Since the 1980's the lines between the left and right have been completely blurred. For example the conservatives adding 66% to national debt - America is broke and so soon could their banking system.
 
i watched the clip.

How are the banks losing so much money though?

I don't understand that.
 
i watched the clip.How are the banks losing so much money though? I don't understand that.

[broken link removed]

Because after the $500,000,000,000,000 [500 Trillion USD] credit party, the hangover hurts like hell. They weren't able to cope with write offs compared to relative asset base. All good things come to an end...

Btw has a trillion 12 or 15 zero's...I get lost in the magnitude??

To get it in perspective

(i) nominal purchasing power of the USA was $48trillion in 2007

(ii) Monoline markets worth $2.3trillion are in default seeking intervention. This is the insurance for the banks should debts go wrong

(iii) Banks are in the red on fractional lending to the tune of -$8350million iiir. First time in history [Excludes auctioned TAF loans]

(iv)The Fed only has $735billion not enough to bail out the banks or monolines, should things deteriorate

(v)America's economy is on empty, it is broke and international countries are switching the greenback.

These events of the last two weeks leds me to believe something bad is in store for all stockmarkets, that maybe unprecendented.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...r=economy - 8th of Feb 2008 - -The G7 know all this information, wait til it goes mainstream.
 
A trillion usually means 10^12 (one million million) in English, but AFAIK it can mean 10^18 (one million million million) in other languages just to confuse things.
BTW the "Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetory Base" stats for this week are out. Non borrowed reserves of depository institutions are now at -$18009million. This sounds like a bad thing to me, but I'm not going to pretend I know what exactly it means - If anyone does have an idea, I'd love to hear it.
 
I was looking at this again and I think that the explanation on that youtube clip was slightly incorrect. My understanding is this:

The presenter is confusing the total in the 1st column as being the amount borrowed. The actual borrowings that the institutions made are in the seventh column and the big changes come during credit auctions in column 6.

Column 2 + 7 = column 1 which is what the bank holds. + column 6 after the auctions.
column 1 - 3 (the required amount) = column 4 the excess above/below the required.

These “injections” of cash were to cover the banks reserve requirements after they had taken such large write downs during this period. Right/wrong?

What happens if the banks don’t meet the requirements? Would they have had to fold?
Is this what has also happened to Northern Rock, but just more publicised? When the ECB were “injecting” cash into the system recently was this for the same reason?

Would appreciate if anyone can help me understand this further.
Link to the fed information:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/
 
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/66db756a-de5d-11dc-9de3-0000779fd2ac.html

US banks borrow $50bn via new Fed facility

By Gillian Tett in London

Published: February 18 2008 20:34 | Last updated: February 18 2008 20:34

US banks have been quietly borrowing massive amounts of money from the Federal Reserve in recent weeks by using a new measure the Fed introduced two months ago to help ease the credit crunch.

The use of the Fed’s Term Auction Facility, which allows banks to borrow at relatively attractive rates against a wider range of their assets than previously permitted, saw borrowing of nearly $50bn of one-month funds from the Fed by mid-February.

US officials say the trend shows that financial authorities have become far more adept at channelling liquidity into the banking system to alleviate financial stress, after failing to calm money markets last year.

However, the move has sparked unease among some analysts about the stress developing in opaque corners of the US banking system and the banks’ growing reliance on indirect forms of government support.

“The TAF ... allows the banks to borrow money against all sort of dodgy collateral,” says Christopher Wood, analyst at CLSA. “The banks are increasingly giving the Fed the garbage collateral nobody else wants to take ... [this] suggests a perilous condition for America’s banking system.”

The Fed announced the TAF tool on December 12 as part of a co-ordinated package of measures unveiled by leading western central banks to calm money markets.

The measure marks a distinct break from past US policy. Before its introduction, banks either had to raise money in the open market or use the so-called “discount window” for emergencies. However, last year many banks refused to use the discount window, even though they found it hard to raise funds in the market, because it was associated with the stigma of bank failure.

The Fed has not yet indicated how long the TAF will remain in place.

But the popularity of the scheme is prompting speculation the reform will stay in place as long as the financial stresses last.

“Some Fed officials have expressed an interest in keeping and possibly expanding the TAF,” says Michael Feroli, economist at JPMorgan.

Nevertheless, Mr Feroli said banks now appeared to be using the TAF instead of other funding routes, meaning that the overall level of reserves in the system was remaining constant. “The banking system certainly has its problems, however the notion that ... banks have trouble maintaining reserves stems from a superficial reading of the Fed’s statistical reports,” he said.
 
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Hasn't the upswing in TAF (Term Auction Facility) lending been matched by the reduction in SOMA (System Open Market Account) lending though? Or, more accurately the FED has reduced the money going to the SOMA market and redirected it to the TAF. From my basic understanding it's the big institutions that buy $ on the SOMA whereas the TAF $'s are available to retail banks? Someone correct me if I'm off the mark here.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/somafed.PNG

Notice how the decrease in SOMA in Sept '07 seems to coincide with the end of the bull market in equity markets last year and again (drastically!) in the last couple months with much of the recent market turmoil. Seems like the FED is trying to get the dollars out there through the path of least resistance by increasing the TAF at the expense of SOMA?

Strange how the FT article completely omits any mention of SOMA.
 
Anybody read today's Irish Independent?
Today is the 1st anniversary of the ISEQ hitting its peak of 10,041.
It's down about 35% since then.
Though down 6% so far this year, the Dow Jones Stoxxx is down 13% so we're not doing too bad.

Some stuff about previous ISEQ problems over the last 20 years, including their duration, should anyone want to research when the downward spiral in the stockmarket will end.
 
I was just reading in the Times that property developers owe the banks €100 Billion! They certainly will want to know when the downturn will end. I'd say we'll see a few of them going under before this downturn ends.
 
Or, more accurately the FED has reduced the money going to the SOMA market and redirected it to the TAF.

Strange how the FT article completely omits any mention of SOMA.

Yep, you're right. It's still a lot. The FT had another article (i have the text but not the link at present) where they do mention this.

Latest :http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/nonborrowedreserves.htm

Recent Declines in Nonborrowed Reserves

The H.3 statistical release indicates that nonborrowed reserves of depository institutions have declined substantially since mid-December to a level that is now negative. This development reflects the provision of a large volume of reserves through the Term Auction Facility (TAF) and has no adverse implications for the availability of reserves to the banking system.

By definition, nonborrowed reserves are equal to total reserves minus borrowed reserves. Borrowed reserves are equal to credit extended through the Federal Reserve's regular discount window programs as well as credit extended through the TAF. To maintain a level of total reserves consistent with the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate, increases in borrowed reserves must generally be met by a commensurate decrease in nonborrowed reserves, which is accomplished through a reduction in the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities and other assets. The negative level of nonborrowed reserves is an arithmetic result of the fact that TAF borrowings are larger than total reserves.
 
I agree that trying to time the market can be foolish but I also think that there's a fair argument to be made for increased buying when fear abounds and valuations look attractive. Look at Warren Buffet - Berkshire Hathaway has been sitting on a $40billion cashpile and is only in recent months putting that cash to work to take advantage of the market sell-off (which has been relatively indiscriminate in the search for safety and liquidity) to buy value.

The big question is where to find that value. If the Fed's rate cutting (which may be followed by the other big central banks over the course of this year) results in another bubble inflating, the next few months are a great opportunity to position yourself to benefit from the upswing. I think some of the emerging markets may be a fair bet, but I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the European large caps benefit too. If confidence comes back into the market and provided the economic outlook here in Ireland doesn't become too grim, the ISEQ may well have a rebound too. What do you think?

No i think you are wrong the uplift will happen in america because the dollar is so cheap and has been falling for years this is making american assets very cheap, europe including ireland is just too expensive now with the valu of the euro, the people with the most investment money are the arabs and asians, as for buffet he is ploughing his money into american assets like railways, energy and banking, whereas 5 years ago he was doing the opposite, he was investing outside america,
 
Why are the markets rallying (in particular the DowJ)? I just don't understand it. With all this negative info coming out of the U.S. in the last few days (inflation up, consumer confidence down, housing sales down, commodities like oil and wheat sky high, the dollar at an all time low) how can this be out weighed by a share buy back from IBM? Forgive the oxymoron but is everyone a contrarian investor now?! I presume now that the ISEQ & DOWJ are around their 50 day moving averages they will turn tail? Any opinions?
 
Why are the markets rallying (in particular the DowJ)? I just don't understand it. With all this negative info coming out of the U.S. in the last few days (inflation up, consumer confidence down, housing sales down, commodities like oil and wheat sky high, the dollar at an all time low) how can this be out weighed by a share buy back from IBM? Forgive the oxymoron but is everyone a contrarian investor now?! I presume now that the ISEQ & DOWJ are around their 50 day moving averages they will turn tail? Any opinions?

While it may be counter-intuitive to see a stock market rally after a slew of bad news it is often the market pricing in a greater chance of future interest rate cuts by the Fed.
 
the market rallies when the FED cuts interest rates because the stock market look at the situation 6-9 months from now. if the fed cut then it will stimulate investment and the economy will recover. simple as that
 
from a historical point of view, investing in the stock market when the fed is cutting rates is always the best time to do it. oil wont harm the world economy until it hits 200 dollars, its still really cheap considering the value we get from it. gold will most definitetly hit 1000 an ounce . its human nature to drive things to new records and the speculators will ensure that it hits 1000
 
"In a speech in November 2002, early in his first stint with the Fed, Bernanke approvingly mentioned a Milton Friedman parable about how a "helicopter drop" of cash could push prices upward. It was simply an attempt to reassure then-skittish markets that the Fed had ways to stave off deflation, but the image of a man willing to dump bills out of helicopters stuck. In hard-money circles, Bernanke is still known as "Helicopter Ben.""
Article link.http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/07/10/8380834/index.htm
 
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