Variant of Concern/ Variant of Interest

[Paul O Mahoney]

It's being reported that Omicron isn't as dangerous to life as Delta which if true will be a relief to many countries.

However, there now seems to be another narrative that is circulating that if Omicron becomes dominant, as the data is pointing to that, it will increase the viral load and spawn more variants.

 

[Purple]

It's being reported that Omicron isn't as dangerous to life as Delta which if true will be a relief to many countries.

However, there now seems to be another narrative that is circulating that if Omicron becomes dominant, as the data is pointing to that, it will increase the viral load and spawn more variants.

Back to my point that our selfishness was not only morally repugnant but self destructive in the medium to longer term.

 

[Purple]

But the so called "poorer " countries have all the resources that the western world needs and until some kind of equity is found the exploitation will continue.

I'm still hopeful, naive perhaps, that out this a better way will be found.

Be hopeful. We’ve only been aware of how much we are screwing up the world since the 60’s and we’ve fundamentally changed so much of what we do as a result.
We’ve also reduced world poverty by more than two thirds in the last 30 years (due almost entirely to capitalism). There has never been less poverty. We are doing a great job, but we’ve a ways to go yet. This is the best time in history to be alive and that holds true for most of the world.
So no doom and gloom.
We are capable of fixing everything that needs to be fixed and we’ve never been closer to that. Hope is empowering, resignation in the face of a challenge is destructive and weak and very unappealing.

 

[Paul O Mahoney]

Be hopeful. We’ve only been aware of how much we are screwing up the world since the 60’s and we’ve fundamentally changed so much of what we do as a result.
We’ve also reduced world poverty by more than two thirds in the last 30 years (due almost entirely to capitalism). There has never been less poverty. We are doing a great job, but we’ve a ways to go yet. This is the best time in history to be alive and that holds true for most of the world.
So no doom and gloom.
We are capable of fixing everything that needs to be fixed and we’ve never been closer to that. Hope is empowering, resignation in the face of a challenge is destructive and weak and very unappealing.

I'm a glass 3/4 full type of person and I know we can solve the issues but its going to take a paradigm shift in thinking if we are to achieve what needs doing.

 

[Purple]

I'm a glass 3/4 full type of person and I know we can solve the issues but its going to take a paradigm shift in thinking if we are to achieve what needs doing.

In the context of human history the last 30 years have been a blip. We’ve probably got a good bit wrong, such as not targeting childhood poverty and education amongst the bottom billion and not developing safe modern nuclear power as it’s the only alternative to hydrocarbons, but we’ve got a lot right.

 

[odyssey06]

Imperial College London study.... not promising but data is limited.

The [broken link removed] from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team estimates that the risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the Delta variant. This implies that the protection against reinfection by Omicron afforded by past infection may be as low as 19%.

The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time.

Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses | Imperial News | Imperial College London

The Omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses according to the latest Imperial modelling.

www.imperial.ac.uk

 

[odyssey06]

Interesting point in New Scientist about variants emerging:
Some virologists think there is a risk with antiviral medication molnupiravir – which is meant to work by inducing so many viral mutations it kills
the virus – and that it should be withdrawn.

 

[Paul O Mahoney]

Imperial College London study.... not promising but data is limited.

The [broken link removed] from the Imperial College London COVID-19 response team estimates that the risk of reinfection with the Omicron variant is 5.4 times greater than that of the Delta variant. This implies that the protection against reinfection by Omicron afforded by past infection may be as low as 19%.

The study finds no evidence of Omicron having lower severity than Delta, judged by either the proportion of people testing positive who report symptoms, or by the proportion of cases seeking hospital care after infection. However, hospitalisation data remains very limited at this time.

Omicron largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses | Imperial News | Imperial College London

The Omicron variant largely evades immunity from past infection or two vaccine doses according to the latest Imperial modelling.

www.imperial.ac.uk

There are so many conflicting assessments its difficult to understand exactly what is the situation.

We know that its highly transmisable, we know that a few deaths have occurred because of it, but we really need more data, otherwise we'll be chasing shadows.

 

[Paul O Mahoney]

Booster at least 80% effective against severe Omicron

Preliminary estimates by researchers suggest the top-up shot should help keep many people out of hospital.

www.bbc.com

Another study/ view that seems to muddle the view even more.

 

[Protocol]

South Africa Hospitalization Rate Plunges in Omicron Wave

South Africa delivered some positive news on the omicron coronavirus variant on Friday, reporting a much lower rate of hospital admissions and signs that the wave of infections may be peaking.

www.bloomberg.com

"Only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference."

 

[Paul O Mahoney]

Interesting story on BBC this morning from SA where scientists are trying to understand where variants are coming from.
While I stress this is a hypothesis and it will take time for anything concrete to come from the work, the scientists seem to believe that people with suppressed immune systems might harbour the virus for months until it breaks free from the host.

It went on to say that as HIV is still part of life in Africa, albeit treated effectively, they believe that the suppressed immune systems of these people might be one of many reasons why variants occur.

Of course other illnesses like Cancer, diabetes etc will cause suppressed immune systems and the people in the report were at pains to say that it's very much a theory and is based on the idea that a healthy immune system would be able to expel any virus like covid in a matter of days/weeks.