Variant of Concern/ Variant of Interest

Purple

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The new variant of Covid19 which has been detected in South Africa and Botswana is currently classified as a 'Varian of Interest'. The Delta Variant was classified as a 'Variant of Concern'. This link gives more details. It might turn out to be worse than Delta or it might not but we should try to minimise the hyperbole and drama before the facts are known.
It's also another vindication of the WHO's stance that we should have vaccinated the vulnerable in the rich world and then stopped until the vulnerable were vaccinated in the rest of the world in order to protect life, reduce the risk of variants and, well, because it was the right thing to do at the most basic human level. We chose to ignore them because getting back to the pub was more important than hundreds of thousands of lives. Our morally reprehensible selfishness has bitten us in the posterior. It would nearly make me believe in karma. The WHO are now entitled to a huge big "I told you so".
 
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Here is some more information:

 
....but surely we can do both? Vaccinate the vulnerable in the 3rd world and also give boosters to others.......at the same time.
 
....but surely we can do both? Vaccinate the vulnerable in the 3rd world and also give boosters to others.......at the same time.
Well we haven't for the last year so the evidence suggests otherwise.
Given that there is a finite amount of vaccines we are choosing to let the vulnerable in poor countries die in order to reduce the chances of the young and low risk getting a bit unwell in the rich world.

Edit: more information here. From the link "Rich countries have about twice the population of low-income countries, yet they have received about 50 times as many Covid-19 vaccine doses, according to an October report from the People’s Vaccine Alliance. The countries with the lowest incomes generally have the lowest Covid-19 vaccination rates.

This vaccination gap is one of the key reasons the disease is still killing more than 6,000 people per day. It’s putting a strain on health systems in countries with already limited resources, fueling hospitalizations, deaths, and economic harm."


What we are doing is appalling. 'Morally reprehensible' doesn't even begin to describe it.
 
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It is not clear if the problem in South Africa is lack of vaccines... or lack of uptake.
South Africa has 40% of the population vaccinated, enough coverage so far for any HCWs and the most vulnerable who want the vaccine.

South Africa asked Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer Inc. to suspend delivery of Covid-19 vaccines as it now has enough stock, an illustration of how plunging demand is undermining the country’s rollout ahead of a potential fourth wave of infections.
“We have over 16 million doses in country, or more than 150 days at present consumption,” Nicholas Crisp, deputy director-general of the Department of Health, said by text message Wednesday. “It makes no sense to stockpile and risk expiry when others are desperate for supplies.”


 
It is not clear if the problem in South Africa is lack of vaccines... or lack of uptake.
South Africa has 40% of the population vaccinated, enough coverage so far for any HCWs and the most vulnerable who want the vaccine.

South Africa asked Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer Inc. to suspend delivery of Covid-19 vaccines as it now has enough stock, an illustration of how plunging demand is undermining the country’s rollout ahead of a potential fourth wave of infections.
“We have over 16 million doses in country, or more than 150 days at present consumption,” Nicholas Crisp, deputy director-general of the Department of Health, said by text message Wednesday. “It makes no sense to stockpile and risk expiry when others are desperate for supplies.”


That doesn't change the fact that poor countries haven't had access to vaccines. The data is in the link I posted.
 
Well this was story number 2 earlier this morning on BBC now 15 minutes with expert after expert .

The WHO are meeting today, Germany, France, and others have already cancelled flights with immediate effect.

WHO quy now asking that people get back to mask wearing etc, but also said we have to wait for further analysis which might take a few days to a week.

He's very animated about the individual country strategy and wants countries to start coordinating as soon as possible on getting poorer countries vaccinated.

He said something like " unfortunately if we keep following the present strategy, expect more variants will emerge ".
 
That doesn't change the fact that poor countries haven't had access to vaccines. The data is in the link I posted.
It does mean that variants of concern can emerge from sources other than those particular countries.
So I don't know how it is a vindication of the WHO stance given that the variant emerged in a country with enough vaccines to cover its priority citizens?

What access would poor countries have if wealthier nations hadn't developed them?

COVAX has sent 550 million vaccine doses free to poorer countries, with multiples of that number to be delivered.

The vaccines were paid for and developed by richer countries.

Countries have a primary duty to their own citizens. What wealthy country is going to risk lockdowns and restrictions and severe economic consequences by stopping to vaccinate its own citizens, to let poorer countries catch up?

If wealthy \ powerful countries were hoarding vaccines, not using them, and sitting back letting this rip through countries and using the vaccines as a power play, that would be a different situation. But they are using the vaccines on their own citizens while assisting poorer countries to vaccinate their priority citizens via COVAX.
 
It does mean that variants of concern can emerge from sources other than those particular countries.
So I don't know how it is a vindication of the WHO stance given that the variant emerged in a country with enough vaccines to cover its priority citizens?
We are vaccinating people who have almost no risk of serious illness or death while there are hundreds of millions of people who are highly vulnerable who have had no access to vaccines. The top tow thirds of countries have consumed 50 times more vaccines than the bottom one third. It's like giving life jackets to people who can swim and are still on the boat rather than people who can't swim are in the water.

What access would poor countries have if wealthier nations hadn't developed them?
Where would working people be if employers didn't give them jobs. Where would the poor be if the rich didn't pay taxes? Where would the old be if the young didn't pay their pensions and fund their healthcare?
Would the rich countries be as rich if they were exploiting the resources of poor countries quite as much?

COVAX has sent 550 million vaccine doses free to poorer countries, with multiples of that number to be delivered.
We've consumed billions of vaccines and COVAX has given out 550 million, a pittance. COVAX also relies on charitable donations to fund much of their work.
The vaccines were paid for and developed by richer countries.
So what?
Countries have a primary duty to their own citizens.
I think every life is of equal value.
What wealthy country is going to risk lockdowns and restrictions and severe economic consequences by stopping to vaccinate its own citizens, to let poorer countries catch up?
Not to let them catch up, just to vaccinate their over 65's and vulnerable. It's in our interest unless we want constant waves of variants.
This is as basic as abolishing slavery even though it had economic consequences for rich countries. I'm sure the same arguments were made then.

If wealthy \ powerful countries were hoarding vaccines, not using them, and sitting back letting this rip through countries and using the vaccines
as a power play, that would be a different situation.
Why? The outcome is the same.
But they are using the vaccines on their own citizens while assisting poorer countries to vaccinate their priority citizens via COVAX.
They are using them on citizens who are at almost zero risk of serious illness or death while healthcare systems in under developed countries are being overwhelmed. There is no moral justification for it. None. It is shameful and despicable and I'm surprised and disappointed that you're defending it.
 
I seem to have liked both Purple's opening post and odyssey's #9 reply. While they are opposing views I think they are both right to a large degree, depending on what lens you use. Still, I don't think we should be offering vaccines to under 12's (18's even) and am torn re boosters for the less vulnerable, until at least poorer countries are offered enough vaccines and logistical help to get off their knees.
 
We are vaccinating people who have almost no risk of serious illness or death while there are hundreds of millions of people who are highly vulnerable who have had no access to vaccines. The top tow thirds of countries have consumed 50 times more vaccines than the bottom one third. It's like giving life jackets to people who can swim and are still on the boat rather than people who can't swim are in the water.


Where would working people be if employers didn't give them jobs. Where would the poor be if the rich didn't pay taxes? Where would the old be if the young didn't pay their pensions and fund their healthcare?
Would the rich countries be as rich if they were exploiting the resources of poor countries quite as much?


We've consumed billions of vaccines and COVAX has given out 550 million, a pittance. COVAX also relies on charitable donations to fund much of their work.

So what?

I think every life is of equal value.

Not to let them catch up, just to vaccinate their over 65's and vulnerable. It's in our interest unless we want constant waves of variants.
This is as basic as abolishing slavery even though it had economic consequences for rich countries. I'm sure the same arguments were made then.


Why? The outcome is the same.

They are using them on citizens who are at almost zero risk of serious illness or death while healthcare systems in under developed countries are being overwhelmed. There is no moral justification for it. None. It is shameful and despicable and I'm surprised and disappointed that you're defending it.
The EU has 800 million doses delivered, the US 550 million doses delivered. Who is this 'we' exactly?
550 million COVAX doses does not seem like a pittance to me.

If every life is of equal value, on what moral grounds do you justify that the EU \ US should have vaccinated any of their citizens first ahead of someone elsewhere in a worse clinical condition? Should there have been a WHO master list of cohorts globally?

Every life is of equal value, right, but what does that mean exactly?
If every life is of equal value, on what moral grounds can Ireland justify spending X on an expensive cancer treatment for 1 person when the same money in the Third World could save 10 (younger) lives?
Or spending money on flood defence to protect properties and businesses, while other countries face floods that kill thousands?
How can we spend money on sending more Irish kids to college, when some kids somewhere in the world don't even get to secondary school?
Countries have duties and responsibilities to their own citizens.

To compare this with slavery, where countries deliberately went to less developed countries and took away people TO not giving out vaccines in a pandemic not of our making ... is intellectually and morally without foundation. It's so far from reality it actually diminishes and underplays what slavery was.

Given that some European countries are going into lockdown, curfew etc to protect their healthcare systems from being overwhelmed, and here in Ireland we are on the edge ... this is not a cost free decision.

Also, the argument that if we boost in the EU \ US there won't be enough vaccines elsewhere in the next months for the vulnerable - considering the upscale in vaccine capacity - isn't a slam dunk either.
It's not just about the vaccines, it is also about the delivery capacity and uptake in those countries.

So I reject the argument on moral grounds, and as can be seen with reference to South Africa, on practical grounds it is not as persuasive as it appears. It's not the case that if we give the booster vaccines to COVAX, there won't be VOCs. There may be less VOCs but our population will be less protected to those that do emerge.
 
South Africa have done brilliant work with Genomic Surveillance during this pandemic. I doubt Countries will be rushing forward to share findings on new mutations going forward...
 
The EU has 800 million doses delivered, the US 550 million doses delivered. Who is this 'we' exactly?
550 million COVAX doses does not seem like a pittance to me.
'We', the richest 2/3 of the world, have consumed 50 times more vaccine than the poorest 1/3. If you think that's right then we'll have to agree to differ.
If every life is of equal value, on what moral grounds do you justify that the EU \ US should have vaccinated any of their citizens first ahead of someone elsewhere in a worse clinical condition? Should there have been a WHO master list of cohorts globally?
There is no moral ground to do so but given that we'll look after ourselves first it's inevitable that we'd vaccinate our vulnerable cohorts first. The problem is that we then vaccinated those who were at almost no statistical risk of serious illness or death while those in other countries who were at a very high risk remained unvaccinated.
This isn't just by view, it's the view of the World Health Organisation.
Every life is of equal value, right, but what does that mean exactly?
If every life is of equal value, on what moral grounds can Ireland justify spending X on an expensive cancer treatment for 1 person when the same money in the Third World could save 10 (younger) lives?
Or spending money on flood defence to protect properties and businesses, while other countries face floods that kill thousands?
How can we spend money on sending more Irish kids to college, when some kids somewhere in the world don't even get to secondary school?
Countries have duties and responsibilities to their own citizens.
Yes, countries have duties to their own citizens but we weren't protecting our younger citizens from the same risk as those in poor countries were exposed to. We'd already protected our vulnerable. That was a done deal.
To compare this with slavery, where countries deliberately went to less developed countries and took away people TO not giving out vaccines in a pandemic not of our making ... is intellectually and morally without foundation. It's so far from reality it actually diminishes and underplays what slavery was.
The argument against the abolition of slavery was an economic one. The argument against sharing our vaccines in an equitable way is also an economic one as there is no medical argument for what we have done. And the 'not of our making' thing is questionable. We in the rich world are the ones consuming the resources and producing the pollution that is driving the climate destruction that caused zoonotic transmission of diseases.
Given that some European countries are going into lockdown, curfew etc to protect their healthcare systems from being overwhelmed, and here in Ireland we are on the edge ... this is not a cost free decision.
Exactly; it's all about cost.
Also, the argument that if we boost in the EU \ US there won't be enough vaccines elsewhere in the next months for the vulnerable - considering the upscale in vaccine capacity - isn't a slam dunk either.
Sure, it's not a slam dunk, just because that's exactly what's happened so far it doesn't mean it will definitely happen again. It's just really really likely that it will happen again.
It's not just about the vaccines, it is also about the delivery capacity and uptake in those countries.
Yes, we should be helping with that too.
So I reject the argument on moral grounds,
Okay, but your morally is based on looking after number one. I find that a strange moral construct.
and as can be seen with reference to South Africa, on practical grounds it is not as persuasive as it appears.
South Africa is not part of the bottom third.
It's not the case that if we give the booster vaccines to COVAX, there won't be VOCs. There may be less VOCs but our population will be less protected to those that do emerge.
So your argument is that we shouldn't do it because it might not be in our interest. Again, I find that to be a strange moral construct.
 
'We', the richest 2/3 of the world, have consumed 50 times more vaccine than the poorest 1/3. If you think that's right then we'll have to agree to differ.

There is no moral ground to do so but given that we'll look after ourselves first it's inevitable that we'd vaccinate our vulnerable cohorts first. The problem is that we then vaccinated those who were at almost no statistical risk of serious illness or death while those in other countries who were at a very high risk remained unvaccinated.
This isn't just by view, it's the view of the World Health Organisation.

Yes, countries have duties to their own citizens but we weren't protecting our younger citizens from the same risk as those in poor countries were exposed to. We'd already protected our vulnerable. That was a done deal.

The argument against the abolition of slavery was an economic one. The argument against sharing our vaccines in an equitable way is also an economic one as there is no medical argument for what we have done. And the 'not of our making' thing is questionable. We in the rich world are the ones consuming the resources and producing the pollution that is driving the climate destruction that caused zoonotic transmission of diseases.

Exactly; it's all about cost.

Sure, it's not a slam dunk, just because that's exactly what's happened so far it doesn't mean it will definitely happen again. It's just really really likely that it will happen again.

Yes, we should be helping with that too.

Okay, but your morally is based on looking after number one. I find that a strange moral construct.

South Africa is not part of the bottom third.

So your argument is that we shouldn't do it because it might not be in our interest. Again, I find that to be a strange moral construct.
The usage\distribution of the vaccine that we produced is not a right\wrong thing.
It's a matter for those countries to decide the allocation of their own production considering the benefit to their own citizens, the risk of VOCs, and their sense of fraternity with other countries. That sense of fraternal assistance is not a moral obligation of the same order as that to one's own citizens.

I don't know what moral construct demands self sacrifice of us or creates a positive over-arching responsibility to aid citizens anywhere in the world to the same extent as we look after our own - and at the expense of our own. Anymore than there is such a moral obligation on us as individuals and in families.
To equate this with slavery, where acts of commission were carried out to deprive someone of their freedom is wrong on multiple levels. There was a positive duty there to stop actions which were making their lives worse. We're looking after number one in the distribution of the vaccines we produced, but we're not abducting people in Rwanda and stealing their organs or kidnapping them to work in factories to produce the vaccine.

No country is going to stop its vaccination rollout and say no, another country needs it more than us. That's an inevitability.
There is no over-arching moral obligation or duty that compels such action to the detriment of one's own society.
Countries and people may choose to allocate \ donate vaccines, either out of altruistic concern, fraternity, of concern about variants.
They may slow down their rollout, bump up allocation to Covax, and maybe they should be doing so but 50-50 is simply not politically feasible or morally obliged.

We'll have to agree to differ on this at an ideological level, I think we've both made our positions clear.
 
The joint makers of the widely used Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine are assessing how effective their jab is against the new Covid-19 variant recently discovered in South Africa, according to the Reuters news agency.
"We understand the concern of experts and have immediately initiated investigations on variant B.1.1.529," Reuters quotes BioNTech as saying.
The German company will have more insight in two weeks time at the latest, when it receives further data from laboratory tests, according to Reuters.
The firm said the variant "may require an adjustment of our vaccine" if it spreads globally and is found to be capable of escaping immunity."


I would imagine a lot of labs are going to be very busy over the next few weeks.
 
And no evidence of increased risk of severe illness.

I wonder if the variant had been found in Germany, what our reaction would have been. Can't see the rest of Europe rushing to impose travel bans before scientists had the chance to do their job.
 
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