From a political perspective I find it hard to follow US internal politics, enough to be getting on with their foreign politics!
From a betting perspective, with €4m + market, that is a money-tight market - I usually set my 'matched' limit at €100k before betting on anything, typically sports.
Nothing is guaranteed but a 5% return in what, 24/48hrs, looks enticing?
Not wanting to entice, promote or invite gambling of course , im just looking at the math -
price/time = risk?
+ human nature (temptation) - which is the added sauce that to this day turns the 'market price is always right' into dust before anybody knows its all wrong!