Opinion Suggestion to ease the cyclical nature of the budget

Discussion in 'Budget 2019' started by gnf_ireland, Oct 10, 2018 at 12:24 PM.

  1. gnf_ireland

    gnf_ireland Frequent Poster

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    As stated on a number of threads, there is general surprise around the spend mentality of this budget. It is really like there is an election coming up and our 'right of centre' government is trying to eat into the electoral base of the populist parties.

    One means of easing the impact of this would be to base the revenue calculation based on the average revenue collected over the last 3-5 years, and ignore the next year projected values. This would have the effect that the budget is not based on future growth, but on actual tax intake PLUS the averaging nature of it would go some way into leveling the cyclical nature our current model.

    A budget deficit would be calculated against the average revenue intake rather than the projected revenue intake. The budget deficit would need to be managed within an agreed threshold - for current expenditure. Capital expenditure is another matter. There would need to be a mechanism that if the budget was primarily in deficit, then the deficit would be clawed back against the available 'average revenue' calculation over a number of years.

    It would also mean that tax collection measures will only take effect in the future, rather than immediately. This may be a downside to the approach, especially closer to an election, but on the flip side may push a bit towards longer term planning. A government may be more willing to change tax collection rules at their term in office, so they can benefit from the extra revenue towards the end of it.

    Not withstanding EU rules, would an approach like this be a runner, and would it be an improvement on the current model?
     
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  2. Firefly

    Firefly Frequent Poster

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    Maybe the Fiscal Advisory Council should have a lot more power. Can you imagine if they advised the government for each budget what the government could spend? By all means let politicians be politicians and let them decide how it is spent, but if they were constrained on the amount it could be a lot better.
     
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  3. gnf_ireland

    gnf_ireland Frequent Poster

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    Absolutely - we need to move away from the concept of election budgets and short term thinking. No government can get away from this while they are always looking at getting reelected.
    It also gives the politician's an out - as they can only work within their allocated budget, and therefore someone to blame for not overspending !
     
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  4. T McGibney

    T McGibney Frequent Poster

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    Maybe scrap the annual Budget circus and implement, say, 3 year budgets?
     
  5. The Horseman

    The Horseman Frequent Poster

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    We certainly do need to change the way we set and spend the budget. We need to have both long and short term strategy (much like a business) and we should invest our budget accordingly.

    it would appear budgets are just vote catchers and especially with Brexit and the increasing pressure on our Corporation tax rate we are due some very difficult times ahead and we need some buffer to mitigate them.

    We don't seem to have learned from the past, a lot of our tax take was property related and now its Corporation tax. At least if we could spread the tax base we would not be so heavily reliant on one or two specific sectors for our tax revenue.
     
  6. gnf_ireland

    gnf_ireland Frequent Poster

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    We have learned nothing - as a government or as a population. All you need to do is try book a restaurant in Dublin on a weekend night at short notice and the boom is definitely back !! Spend Spend Spend appears to be both the government and populations approach to living...
     
  7. gnf_ireland

    gnf_ireland Frequent Poster

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    I still like the idea of averaging out revenues so we can at least handle minor blips and changes to accounting rules that may offer one off boosts.
    For example, if we were to offer another tax amnesty and the projected intake was 500m (for example), this should be spent over 3-5 years and not in a single year...

    But anything is better than the annual Budget circus we have today...
     
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  8. Brendan Burgess

    Brendan Burgess Founder

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    A very interesting topic.

    We do this to some extent. The EU guidelines work out how much we can spend through the "structural deficit". I don't fully follow it but it's supposed to allow us to spend more in bad times and less in good times.

    Agree fully. They should not be advisory. They should tell the government what the budget deficit or surplus should be.

    And if the government is projected to exceed the limits set down, then an external, non political, person would be appointed the Minister for Finance until order was fully restored.

    Come to think of it, why not change the Constitution so that the Minister for Finance would have to be an external professional with no political affiliation?

    That person could set a 10 year strategy and any political party would have to operate within that strategy.
     
  9. Purple

    Purple Frequent Poster

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    As things stand he's the only Minister who cannot be appointed from the Seaned (The Taoiseach, Tánaiste and Minister for Finance must be members of the Dáil).
    Eoin O'Malley wrote about this in 2012.