Stock market correction or bear market/crash? Either way I bailed.

Daddy Ireland said:
But how did you see the video Galway was it sent to you privately if not referred to on a forum ? I would agree that dividends are inferior to capital gains but I think most people investing expect both to happen really over time. Don't personally like ETFs. Very complicated as per Rory Gillen and I like things straightforward. Britain is on sale per Seeking Alpha and is being treated tough with Brexit but there are currently excellent companies that will outperform once this whole Brexit thing blows over. Think energy, insurance, utilities as examples in not naming names. They will grow dividends plus a capital gain over time. Just a case of being patient. When a market crash comes I believe many UK stocks won't fall to the same degree.
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energy stocks are up about 25% since last july , as are mining stocks , that ship has left the harbour , whatever about having sailed off

the etf,s i own are american domiciled so as to avoid the eight year rule , i hear irish citizens wont be able to purchase these anymore so i wont be selling mine anytime soon
 
Daddy Ireland said:
Energy stocks in UK up 25% since last July ? Care to back that up Galway with some examples !
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well i over egged it

of the two british ( one anglo dutch ) oil majors in the ftse 100 , the anglo dutch one is up nearly 24 % since july , the other one which rhymes with GP is up 19%

the two anglo aussie mining giants are up between 20 and 25% each as well
 
I can name energy stocks SSE, CENTRICA, NATIONAL GRID all down significantly since July to name but a few. National Grid yields 5.5% and dividend cover greater than 4. Better than money in the bank. Yes BP and SHELL have risen a lot but yield over 6% and oil price relatively stable at 60 dollars.
 
Apologies if I have crossed the line in naming stocks but was merely showing opposition to Galways assertion.
 
Daddy Ireland said:
I can name energy stocks SSE, CENTRICA, NATIONAL GRID all down significantly since July to name but a few. National Grid yields 5.5% and dividend cover greater than 4. Better than money in the bank. Yes BP and SHELL have risen a lot but yield over 6% and oil price relatively stable at 60 dollars.
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yields on those oil major stocks were 8% last july
 
Yes 8% last July dividend on BP when share price was depressed now a lower yield with price higher. You would have done very good with BP too rather than your ETF and in fact much better with BP had you invested your six figure sum there. But hey nothing wrong with 6% return on ETF.
 
I love Buffet , some of my favourites .The great thing is I know nothing about investing couldn’t read a balance sheet, have no idea of individual companies or sectors and don’t follow what’s going on in the world , but I’ve listenned to the best and just bought the market and have maybe 30-40% ROI , still buying into F&C and a couple of other trusts ( thanks Sarenco ) every few months , I’ll revisit this thread every 10 years and see how far behind stock pickers and market timers I am.

“If past history was all that is needed to play the game of money, the richest people would be librarians.”

“There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult.”

“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.”
 
Fella said:
I love Buffet , some of my favourites .The great thing is I know nothing about investing couldn’t read a balance sheet, have no idea of individual companies or sectors and don’t follow what’s going on in the world , but I’ve listenned to the best and just bought the market and have maybe 30-40% ROI , still buying into F&C and a couple of other trusts ( thanks Sarenco ) every few months , I’ll revisit this thread every 10 years and see how far behind stock pickers and market timers I am.
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in fairness fella you are not the typical average investor in that you have developed a large tolerance for losses from your betting experience which is crucial. Lots of people say that they will just buy the market and sit tight until a year like 2008 rolls around and then they panic. Even diversified etfs were sold in 2016 so diversification does not stop people from panicing. The average investor has the worst performance of all, time and time again they sell the lows and buy the highs. More information and ease of buying and selling will only exaggerate this phenomenon.
 
joe sod said:
The average investor has the worst performance of all....
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Joe,

This is a little tongue in cheek - but when I challenge Brendan on his understanding of probabilities, etc. - it would be a little remiss of me if I did not highlight the paradox in the above as well!;)
 
Dan Murray said:
Joe,

This is a little tongue in cheek - but when I challenge Brendan on his understanding of probabilities, etc. - it would be a little remiss of me if I did not highlight the paradox in the above as well!;)
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I dont mean "average" in the mathematical sense, i mean the "average joe" was the worst performer of all much worse performance than the much maligned fund managers. I think alot of "average joes" have stayed out of the markets for years now and are only now getting back in. So not many people actually just buy the market through the ups and downs, loss aversion is the key reason for this
 
I started investing part of my savings into shares via execution only brokers roughly 4 years ago. I was so naive that I kept them idle (only action: reinvested dividends every x months, of course I paid my taxes on the dividends/whatever) until a month ago when I started swapping shares (calculating CGT on each trade) every 4/more than 4 weeks periods after finally learning (thanks to AAM as well) of the FIFO, 28 days rule, etc. Also I also started availing of the 1270 Eur/year CGT allowance.

In 4 years of shares-investments kept mainly idle (all blue chips) my shares now could drop 30% and I would reach the original invested capital amount.

I am wondering if there is a perception of how strongly the upcoming bear will hit... As I read around it statistically comes back at least every 8 years and this is the 9th year of growing share markets (and that's in my opinion also because people have lost faith on banks as safe heaven for cash amounts+interest rates are too low)... FT Weekends and Sunday Times are still quite vague on this, imo...

As I learned with the big crisis of 2008/2009 main shares dropped in value my even more than 50% correct? And f I look at the Dow Jones graph imo we should consider a drop at least from 26K to 20K (trajectories) i.e. roughly 22% before the cycle starts again.

I mean: this kind of heaven cannot keep going forever... We must get ready psychologically... And anyway myself I'm not planning any cashing in for another 20 years at least but just periodical few shares-swapping...

Any thought?
 
landlord said:
But it just doesn't make sense to me to continue investing at the top or close to the top of a 6 year bull run, especially when there are so many negative indicators, both politically and economically. Stocks are massively overpriced and there currently seems to be tremendous economic instability. Statistical history suggests that this bull market may end fairly soon, so it seems logical to wait for better value.
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Two and a half years later the bull market continues to rage on relentlessly
 
Yes but that just means that the stopped clock merchants are 30 months closer to their day in the sun. ;)
 
LoveTrees said:
I am wondering if there is a perception of how strongly the upcoming bear will hit... As I read around it statistically comes back at least every 8 years and this is the 9th year of growing share markets (and that's in my opinion also because people have lost faith on banks as safe heaven for cash amounts+interest rates are too low)... FT Weekends and Sunday Times are still quite vague on this, imo...
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There was a fairly big correction at start of 2016, if you remember, there was alot of doomsday stuff then and it felt real. There was a wallstreet dictat that if market falls by a certain percentage the first few days in january then the market will be down substantially by the end of year. There were trading algorithms programmed to sell based on that dictat which amplified substantially what was really happening. If you remember the market was falling 2%, 3% day after day but alot of it was computers programmed to follow that dictat. Then the madness stopped because the wise heads realised that this was rubbish and began to buy despite the long held wallstreet dictat. Therefore that theory is now thrown out as debunked probably never to be heard of again. I think now in the computer age alot of long held theories on trading no longer apply as too many computers were programmed to follow these dictats and then end up debunking them, probably because other computers programmed to take advantage of it. We simply cannot tell when the next correction will happen, we have already had the once in a generation crash of 2008 the worst since 1929, people are still scared of that and are looking around the corner for the next 2008 crash, thats what january 2016 showed but it was a false dawn.
 
joe sod said:
There was a fairly big correction at start of 2016, if you remember, there was alot of doomsday stuff then and it felt real. There was a wallstreet dictat that if market falls by a certain percentage the first few days in january then the market will be down substantially by the end of year. There were trading algorithms programmed to sell based on that dictat which amplified substantially what was really happening. If you remember the market was falling 2%, 3% day after day but alot of it was computers programmed to follow that dictat. Then the madness stopped because the wise heads realised that this was rubbish and began to buy despite the long held wallstreet dictat. Therefore that theory is now thrown out as debunked probably never to be heard of again. I think now in the computer age alot of long held theories on trading no longer apply as too many computers were programmed to follow these dictats and then end up debunking them, probably because other computers programmed to take advantage of it. We simply cannot tell when the next correction will happen, we have already had the once in a generation crash of 2008 the worst since 1929, people are still scared of that and are looking around the corner for the next 2008 crash, thats what january 2016 showed but it was a false dawn.
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i seem to remember in january 2016 , a lot of talk about how the big banks were exposed to the energy sector which was in free fall at the time and appeared to be driving the correction , hard to see how computers were behind that ?, more like big money shorting with a view to hoovering up bank stocks on the cheap ? , bank of america has trebled in value in two years , is it three times more profitable today ?
 
Is it because interest rates are so low... all money went into either property or stocks?

As interest rates start to rise would expect money to drift out of stocks

But financial might stay good because will benefit from rate rises
 
galway_blow_in said:
i seem to remember in january 2016 , a lot of talk about how the big banks were exposed to the energy sector which was in free fall at the time and appeared to be driving the correction , hard to see how computers were behind that ?, more like big money shorting with a view to hoovering up bank stocks on the cheap ? , bank of america has trebled in value in two years , is it three times more profitable today ?
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there always is a plausible reason aswell for the fall that was happening through end of 2015, also jitters about chinese stock market, but that was not the reason for the panic in january 2016, it wasn't rational , if "big money" was so clever to cause the sell off then how did they all get caught in 2008 with some going bust. Alot of "big money" was wrong in 2016 when they shorted the market and alot of them lost money, not all "big money" is so smart
 
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