Sporting Moral Hazard

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odyssey06

Registered User
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So you think the Irish soccer team can't qualify for the European championship because they are 4th in their group, 6 points off 2nd place with 1 match left.

Think again...
There are play off spots reserved based on League of Nations rankings.
Ireland is ranked ahead of Greece but behind the Netherlands.
If Greece finish 2nd, Netherlands get the playoff spot ahead of us.
If Netherlands finish 2nd, Ireland gets the playoff spot ahead of Greece.

So this presents a doubt for the Irish team... they don't really want to win v the Dutch. A Dutch win that gives them 2nd place is more likely to put Ireland into the playoffs. So... do they play to win* or lose?

* A remote possibility even if we did try
 
odyssey06 said:
So you think the Irish soccer team can't qualify for the European championship because they are 4th in their group, 6 points off 2nd place with 1 match left.

Think again...
There are play off spots reserved based on League of Nations rankings.
Ireland is ranked ahead of Greece but behind the Netherlands.
If Greece finish 2nd, Netherlands get the playoff spot ahead of us.
If Netherlands finish 2nd, Ireland gets the playoff spot ahead of Greece.

So this presents a doubt for the Irish team... they don't really want to win v the Dutch. A Dutch win that gives them 2nd place is more likely to put Ireland into the playoffs. So... do they play to win* or lose?

* A remote possibility even if we did try
Click to expand...
I thought the League of Nations was replaced by the United Nations in 1946. Every day's a school day...
 
Perish the thought that Ireland and the Dutch would make some sort of an arrangement in a football match to make sure they both qualified. Like that never happened before? Italia 90 by the way in case anyone doesn't remember the last 15 mins after Niall Quinn levelled it.
 
thedaddyman said:
Perish the thought that Ireland and the Dutch would make some sort of an arrangement in a football match to make sure they both qualified. Like that never happened before? Italia 90 by the way in case anyone doesn't remember the last 15 mins after Niall Quinn levelled it.
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I will be waving this flag on the day...

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thedaddyman said:
Perish the thought that Ireland and the Dutch would make some sort of an arrangement in a football match to make sure they both qualified. Like that never happened before? Italia 90 by the way in case anyone doesn't remember the last 15 mins after Niall Quinn levelled it.
Click to expand...
That's a scurrilous accusation! Nobody would ever accuse either Nation of being dishonest... not unless they read a newspaper or could use Google...
 
The position about a possible play off position is not as simple as stated above .
We are also dependant on other results going our way such as Albania or Slovakia failing to qualify.
 
Deiseblue said:
The position about a possible play off position is not as simple as stated above .
We are also dependant on other results going our way such as Albania or Slovakia failing to qualify.
Click to expand...
I see that now, both look like long shots given the group tables.

We'll just have to think of the Ireland v Netherlands conundrum as more of a hypothetical :(

www.the42.ie

Explainer: Where do Ireland now stand in the Euro 2024 playoff picture?

At this stage, Stephen Kenny’s side would require a minor miracle to advance.
www.the42.ie www.the42.ie
 
Even IF they qualify just imagine what the group will be like coming out of pot 4 ..
I think they would be better off if they didn't qualify..... until they have a decent team. Right now it would be a waste of money , in my opinion.
 
joer said:
Even IF they qualify just imagine what the group will be like coming out of pot 4 ..
I think they would be better off if they didn't qualify..... until they have a decent team. Right now it would be a waste of money , in my opinion.
Click to expand...
You're probably right, might be a blessing, could be more a hammering than we got in Euro 2012.

So all out to beat the Dutch then.
 
odyssey06 said:
You're probably right, might be a blessing, could be more a hammering than we got in Euro 2012.

So all out to beat the Dutch then.
Click to expand...
Exactly...take out all the frustrations on the Dutch... and forget about having high notions like qualifying ...:oops:
 
joer said:
Even IF they qualify just imagine what the group will be like coming out of pot 4 ..
I think they would be better off if they didn't qualify..... until they have a decent team. Right now it would be a waste of money , in my opinion.
Click to expand...
You never know , the only time we really disappointed was at Euro 2012 .
Personally I’d love to see us qualify, following Ireland abroad has always been a great experience and money well spent.
Poland 2012 was disastrous on the pitch but a great experience culturally and gastronomically!
If everyone gave up on the Rugby team after a disastrous run of eight successive quarter final defeats then nobody would travel to a World Cup .
 
Shades of 1966 World Cup qualification come to mind when Rep of Ireland tied with Spain at the group stage. A playoff was ordered (one match) and we won home advantage on the toss. Spain offered someone a few bob to have the playoff in Paris and this was accepted. Spain won 1 - 0 and goal was scored by Ufarte (a Basque). I “watched” the game on Radio Eireann and commentary was by Philip Greene where he famously said after the goal “The silence of the Irish supporters can be heard back in Ireland.”
 
Deiseblue said:
You never know , the only time we really disappointed was at Euro 2012 .
Personally I’d love to see us qualify, following Ireland abroad has always been a great experience and money well spent.
Poland 2012 was disastrous on the pitch but a great experience culturally and gastronomically!
If everyone gave up on the Rugby team after a disastrous run of eight successive quarter final defeats then nobody would travel to a World Cup .
Click to expand...
Correct me if I am wrong but I would say that there was more excitement in the defeat against All Blacks than there was in the win against Gibraltar.
I like to see Ireland qualify for anything but only when I think they have a reasonable chance of not getting hammered.
 
joer said:
Correct me if I am wrong but I would say that there was more excitement in the defeat against All Blacks than there was in the win against Gibraltar.
I like to see Ireland qualify for anything but only when I think they have a reasonable chance of not getting hammered.
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I’d like RoI to qualify no matter how bad the team plays, but I want them to at least compete and show some respect for the supporters.
 
Leper said:
Shades of 1966 World Cup qualification come to mind when Rep of Ireland tied with Spain at the group stage. A playoff was ordered (one match) and we won home advantage on the toss. Spain offered someone a few bob to have the playoff in Paris and this was accepted. Spain won 1 - 0 and goal was scored by Ufarte (a Basque). I “watched” the game on Radio Eireann and commentary was by Philip Greene where he famously said after the goal “The silence of the Irish supporters can be heard back in Ireland.”
Click to expand...
Minnows Hellas Verona won Serie A In Italy in season 1984-85 despite the big name clubs being stacked with Italian world cup winners and expensive foreign imports.
What was special about that season?
It was the only season referees were assigned randomly shortly before kick off to ref the games.
 
Moral hazard averted...

Republic of Ireland's already remote chances of earning a place in the Euro 2024 qualifying play-offs came to an emphatic end as Slovakia booked their spot in next year's finals with a 4-2 victory over Iceland in Bratislava.

www.rte.ie

Slovakia book Euros spot and end Irish play-off hopes

Republic of Ireland's already remote chances of earning a Euro 2024 qualifying play-off place came to an emphatic end as Slovakia booked their spot in next year's finals with a 4-2 victory over Iceland in Bratislava.
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie
 
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