So where are we with Bitcoin after 4 months of discussion?

Brendan Burgess said:
This is not an easy question to answer. It wasn't on the 5th March 2016.

Bitcoin is worth nothing.
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I think it's fair enough to have different opinions.

Where I'm struggling with is the logic.

BTC has no value but when it was at c. $400 on the 5th March 2016 it was not in a bubble.

Arguing simultaneously that BTC is a bag of air and that at 400 bucks it wasn't in a bubble is flat earth stuff if ever I've heard it.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
had a sense that the $20,000 was the bubble which would suddenly burst and drop to zero.
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Brendan, I can only go with what is put in front of me. I agree you have no more insight than anyone else into short-term price flucuations.
I am merely pointing out to you that your contradictory views. The above comment refers to the bubble bursting and going to zero.
In another comment you stated that you considered cashing out at $6,000. Why would anyone consider cashing out at $6,000 when their senses are telling them that the bubble has burst and is going to zero?
Why would anyone consider cashing out at $6,000 when the trajectory of the price was very much in line with your overall stated position of bitcoin returning to zero?

All im saying is that there is a high level of irrationality in your postings about bitcoin price and value. To such an extent that it is yourself that has a recorded loss on bitcoin.

Surely, you should heed your own advice now and cash out any profits before you lose more money?
 
elacsaplau said:
BTC has no value but when it was at c. $400 on the 5th March 2016 it was not in a bubble.
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Hi elacs

Sorry for the confusion. I worded that badly.



What I was trying to say was "There wasn't a particular day e.g. 5th March 2016 when Bitcoin suddenly became a bubble. In other words, I am not saying that on 4th March, it was not a bubble. Then on the 5th March it was a bubble.

Bitcoin is worth nothing.

It was worth nothing at any time. That is very clear to anyone who looks at it with a cold eye which is very difficult for someone who has bought it and who is sitting on paper profits.

As it was always worth nothing, it was always overpriced.

It was clearly in a bubble when I started writing about it in November. It's clearly in a bubble now.

When the bubble started is more a question of definition.

 
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TheBigShort said:
Why would anyone consider cashing out at $6,000 when their senses are telling them that the bubble has burst and is going to zero?
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How many times do I have to explain this? It's clearly explained in the thread to which I referred you?

But I will try once more.

I cannot predict the madness of crowds.

When Bitcoin falls to $3,000, it does not mean that it will continue on in a straight line to zero. Bitcoin has staged dramatic recoveries before.

At $3,000, my maximum additional profit is $3,000. My potential loss from there is theoretically unlimited, subject to my stop loss. Bitcoin could fall to $3,000 and then rise again to $20,000 and continue on past my own loss limit of $34,500.

So at $3,000 I would be risking $31,500 to gain $3,000. So I will probably cash out when it falls to $3,000. Not sure yet. Or as someone else suggested in that thread, I might cash out half of it.

The ideal thing for me would be to cash out at $3,000 and then see Bitcoin rise again to $20,000. And I would probably short sell again then.

Brendan
 
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TheBigShort said:
Why would anyone consider cashing out at $6,000 when the trajectory of the price was very much in line with your overall stated position of bitcoin returning to zero?
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I wonder would it help you to understand this point if I change the figures a bit.

Let's say Bitcoin had hit $40,000 but had since dropped to $4.

I think that it's worth nothing, so in theory, I should short sell at $4 and collect my money when it goes to zero.

But it could stage a recovery. My maximum profit would be $4 and my potential loss would be $40,000.

Shortie - thanks for pushing me on this. My repeated attempts to explain it to you has clarified it a bit in my own mind.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
I think that it's worth nothing, so in theory, I should short sell at $4 and collect my money when it goes to zero.

But it could stage a recovery. My maximum profit would be $4 and my potential loss would be $40,000.
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You could do that, and thats what could happen - buts thats not what you have done, and that is not what has happened.
It just further implies more irrational thinking on your part.

I would hope you take on board your own advice and cash out now, in case you lose more money on bitcoin.
 
I am going to address the question in the title of the thread.

My first observation is that after all the "hot air" nobody appears to have changed sides, indeed possibly the debate has become more entrenched, reminding me of the NI situation or the Leave/Remain discussion in UK or indeed the Abortion debate in RoI.

When I entered this forum I had a vague sense of what bitcoin was and whilst skeptical I was of a fairly open mind. I guessed that some beautiful and very scarce mathematical objects were involved. Thanks in particular to the efforts of fp I am now considerably better informed. But tecate has also been helpful. Whilst he clearly is more part of the religious wing of the community than fp, nonetheless he knows his onions. Amateur followers should take note of tecate's warnings on Tether and take special note that he is not holding bitcoin at the moment.

Any way, I digress. What I now find is that far from a thing of beauty bitcoin consists of the ugliest mathematics known to Man. Whilst hash cryptography is of mild mathematical interest, the performing of billions of trial and error hash puzzles with zero intellectual input is frankly obscene.

But the real eye opener for me is the fact that there are thousands of cryptos including bitcoin offspring. I definitely thought bitcoin was something unique before I joined this discussion. To see online exchanges with lists of cryptos all trading on a continuous basis and with so called "market caps" which a medium sized enterprise would give a right arm for is mind boggling. I know there are those who see this as evidence of the indomitable human spirit attempting to throw off the chains of a corrupt central banking elite. To me it is a sordid spectacle of avarice with people trying to make vast fortunes out of nothing. They must mostly be fraudulent, though some will be motivated by religious fervour. I don't think bitcoin was originally fraudulent - you would hardly launch a fraud advertising that 2 pizza trade for 10,000 bitcoin

Of course I have enjoyed the banter and the debate, I reckon it accounts for as much as 25% of my posts over the last 20 years. And I am €1,500 the richer due to following the Boss tip to short.
 
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newtothis said:
Progress at last: an admission it's an opinion, not a fact!

People believe all sorts of strange things: the earth is flat, the moon landings are fake, Trump is a great president, Ryan Tubridy is entertaining, the list goes on.......
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Ah, come on now, Negotiator.

I can just about go along with the first two - but Trump & Tubs - that's a real stretch!
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
They must mostly be fraudulent, though some will be motivated by religious fervour. I don't think bitcoin was originally fraudulent
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Hi Duke

I presume you are not suggesting that Bitcoin itself is fraudulent? I don't think that normal trading in it is either.

Of course fraudsters are piggybacking on it and launching fraudulent cryptos. And there are people conning others into parting with real money to buy Bitcoin, but they are not actually buying Bitcoin.

Brendan
 
elacsaplau said:
Ah, come on now, Negotiator.

I can just about go along with the first two - but Trump & Tubs - that's a real stretch!
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Good to see I'm not the only one mistaking identities on here this morning!

Don't worry elacsaplau......it's still too early on a Sunday the day after Paddy's so all is forgiven!
 
To pick up on the title of the thread, here’s where I am on Bitcoin:

- People believe the craziest things, even when all the evidence points to the contrary. Declaring Bitcoin to have no value whilst simultaneously betting its value will drop below a certain point at best points to a certain cognitive dissonance, at worst opens you up to ridicule.

- I haven’t heard anyone arguing it isn’t in a bubble at the moment, and I wouldn’t disagree with anyone on that, if only on the basis of walking like a duck, sounding like a duck….. So, maybe this is something we can all agree on?

- Just because it costs little to create and nothing to own doesn’t make it unusable as a currency: a €50 note has pretty much the same attributes.

- Because of its price volatility, it’s currently pretty much (completely?) useless as a currency: something more typically seen in cases of hyper-inflation, where going to a baker to buy bread with a wheelbarrow full of cash only to be told: “Sorry, mate, you need a bigger wheelbarrow…” neatly illustrates the problem. If you don’t know when you acquire your currency how much it’s likely to be worth by the time you get to spend it, you have a problem.

- I believe therefore that Bitcoin has entered the Chocolate Teapot phase of its existence: pretty much useless as its stated purpose (for now) but retaining value as something else; the said Chocolate Teapot is a poor carrier of tea but depending on the quality of the chocolate a very tasty treat.

- In the same way, Bitcoin may have lost its value as a currency, but it’s gained it as a speculative form of investment, though not one for the faint hearted. There’s nothing unusual in this where something designed for having value for one thing (e.g. a Ferrari GTO which was designed for and had value as a race winning car) has ended up the same way (a carrier for speculative investment).

- Bitcoin has some useful attributes to act as a currency (for example, probably more secure from being faked then cash) and in its early days certainly acted like one before the price started to rocket, but then there’s any number of things that have acted as currency over the centuries. They’re all dependent on a common view of their value, ease of holding and trading and so on, but most of all confidence.

- Bitcoin could escape its price bubble; if and when it does it could remain as something for price speculation, it could revert to acting as a currency, it could become the major currency, it could be outlawed, who knows? I don’t, so I think I’ll go ask an economist or two, who seem to enjoy predicting the future……
 
Hi newtothis

Excellent post.

You seem to be suggesting that Bitcoin has no use at all except that Greater Fools will put a price on it.

Bitcoin is worthless.

It's price is $7,400 and will fall to match its worth.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Hi newtothis

Excellent post.
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Thanks!

Brendan Burgess said:
You seem to be suggesting that Bitcoin has no use at all except that Greater Fools will put a price on it.
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As the moment, yes, though I used slightly different language: a "speculative investment...not for the faint hearted". It's quite possible that if and when the volatility calms down it may revert to being a useful currency, but that's speculation. As I suggested: maybe consult an economist for guidance about the future? or two if you want more than one opinion?


Brendan Burgess said:
Bitcoin is worthless.

It's price is $7,400 and will fall to match its worth.
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Here's where my feeble brain can't cope with the cognitive dissonance. On planet newtothis "worth" means "having a particular value, especially in money" (the quote is from planet Earth's Cambridge dictionary), so saying it's worthless and in the next sentence pointing out its price is $7,400 has me flummoxed. Price is the very thing that establishes something has value.

Just out of interest, what do the terms "value" and "worth" mean on planet BB?
 
Hi Negotiator

My position has not changed since I first made this post on 25 November last:
Bitcoin is a clearly identifiable economic bubble

Bitcoin was worth nothing then.
Nothing at all has changed in the meantime.
No one has provided any analysis or calculations to show what its value is.

My position would change if the circumstances changed e.g. Trump decides to peg Bitcoin to the dollar.

If someone comes up with calculations to estimate its value or a range of values, my position could change. But I am not expecting that.

Not sure what you mean by cockiness. I have always said it was worth nothing. In many areas of life and finance there are areas of uncertainty and I will offer a "pros and cons" view for example, I believe that shares are a better investment than property but I will list out the pros and cons of each.

But there is no room for doubt here. Bitcoin is worth nothing. And there really is no point in doing an "on the one hand..." polite type of post.

That is an interesting observation that I posted less when Bitcoin was recovering. I was not aware of it.

I am posting a lot today, because what else would I be doing in this weather and I am responding to some very active posters.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Bitcoin was worth nothing then.
Nothing at all has changed in the meantime.
No one has provided any analysis or calculations to show what its value is.
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I note the partial change of terminology (from "value" to "worth"), though sadly you seem to have reverted form stating an opinion, however bizarre ("I think that it's worth nothing"), to a declarative statements that conflict with reality.

It is worth something: it's being bought and sold all the time! You don't need any analysis or calculations to see how valuable it is: just sell some and the price will tell you!
 
This and other threads remind me about of the old one that the Holy Roman Empire was neither holy nor Roman.

"Bitcoin being in a clearly identifiable bubble"? It seems to me, and by Brendan's own admission, that when it obtained bubble status is neither clear nor identifiable!

Brendan Burgess said:
No one has provided any analysis or calculations to show what its value is.
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No one has provided any analysis or calculations to show when BTC's pricing entered bubble country.

[I've lost track of the number of times that I've asked this question. This question was always conveniently ignored until today. Today's answer from Brendan did not illuminate a whole lot.]
 
Brendan Burgess said:
I am posting a lot today, because what else would I be doing in this weather and I am responding to some very active posters.
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Fair enough....I guess we're all in the same boat in that regard.

You've defo been consistent in saying Bitcoin is going to zero, in fact there's no getting away from that around here! Haha
 
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