It’s pretty poor for modelling I would have thought. Nothing like Singapore.
Situation in Ireland in 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months
- Thread starter moneymakeover
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Better than waiting til they die though.
No offence but why don't you leave it to the experts. The US are struggling to get access to kits and equipment. As are every other country. Italy seized respirators that Greece tried to buy even though there was an export ban in place. It is extremely difficult for every health organisation in the world and they are all doing their best in extremely difficult conditions as are Government politicians. Nothing will ever be perfect but all you have done on this thread and others is nit pick everything through ill informed comment.
We can't control supply of equipment but we can control social gatherings and the fact that you minimise what was seen at the weekend and how we all have a part to play shows you don't really understand what is happening. Easier to sit behind a computer moaning and bitching about the HSE and the Government.
Brendan Burgess
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Does anybody else feel that perhaps too much emphasis is being placed on the number of people awaiting testing given the assumption that anybody waiting on testing should be in the cohort of people who will have mild symptoms. Anybody who would be experiencing severe symptoms would be admitted to hospital regardless of whether or not they had been tested at that point and their results would most likely be expedited at this point.
I guess the point I'm making is that a lot of people are making a huge point of the 40k outstanding tests currently when in my view the important figures are the hospital admissions and ICU admissions. This is also with the huge caveat that I assume by now anybody who suspects they have Covid 19 knows enough to self isolate and not further infect others anymore than they may have in the first few days they were contagious.
I guess the point I'm making is that a lot of people are making a huge point of the 40k outstanding tests currently when in my view the important figures are the hospital admissions and ICU admissions. This is also with the huge caveat that I assume by now anybody who suspects they have Covid 19 knows enough to self isolate and not further infect others anymore than they may have in the first few days they were contagious.
From any of them we can try to model we when we will run out of capacity. (And hence decide if we need to lock down harder)
Tests is start of the chain so gives us most amount of time to react(assuming no backlog). Deaths is end of the chain and we are too late to react by then.
I agree that today I focus more on admissions and critical care.
Tests is start of the chain so gives us most amount of time to react(assuming no backlog). Deaths is end of the chain and we are too late to react by then.
I agree that today I focus more on admissions and critical care.
It’s going to take a lot longer to come out of this if they don’t test. There’s no lock down in Singapore. My cousin there has been tested a number of times. Quickly and results are very quick. She’s a teacher. She’s been negative so far but has had a bit of a cold and fever on and off. Once she was tested negative she could go back to work. So she is someone who would have been told in Ireland to self isolate and might have done so for a long period of time over the last month. Instead she is part of a functioning business.
I think the testing situation has been pretty poor here. I read in the Irish Times this morning that they are changing the approach to testing again. It is good to see them adjusting but hopefully they will take a better approach to testing, as adopted in other jurisdictions.
I am very focused on what I can to myself, but it shouldn’t prevent me as a citizen who is concerned having a viewpoint and expressing a view. That’s what these discussions are for.
I think the testing situation has been pretty poor here. I read in the Irish Times this morning that they are changing the approach to testing again. It is good to see them adjusting but hopefully they will take a better approach to testing, as adopted in other jurisdictions.
I am very focused on what I can to myself, but it shouldn’t prevent me as a citizen who is concerned having a viewpoint and expressing a view. That’s what these discussions are for.
Would it not be true to say that unless every single person is tested then it could all flare back up again seeing as there is no cure. Even when numbers go down what's to stop the whole thing flaring back up again? Not just in Ireland, but everywhere?
I've just spotted a post saying there's now new criteria for testing, if that's the case I can see more problems. You may not have the virus when tested but down the line you may have. Who's to say that because you don't have those new symptoms to have the test that you won't have the Coronavirus? What's the point otherwise?
I've just spotted a post saying there's now new criteria for testing, if that's the case I can see more problems. You may not have the virus when tested but down the line you may have. Who's to say that because you don't have those new symptoms to have the test that you won't have the Coronavirus? What's the point otherwise?
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I would imagine that these new criteria are temporary to stop every hypochondriac in the country requesting to be tested when we don’t have the capacity currently to cope with those numbers. Last night the head of the testing group said they are building up to a capacity of 15,000 tests per day but that would take 3 or 4 weeks to get to. So in the meantime I’d imagine they are prioritising the cases that most accurately resemble the symptoms of the virus.
Thats definitely possible you only have to look at our emergency departments in normal times to see that (some) GP’s are in the habit of hand balling cases off.
I do have some sympathy for them in this case as how difficult would it be to not refer somebody for testing in the middle of a pandemic. They are quite probably erring on the side of caution. These guidelines will give them the cover to not bow to every panicky person now.
Ceist Beag
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This video from PrimeTime explains it quite well - so testing is not what we should be focusing on, it's following the well publicised guidelines.
No, not unless everyone is tested every few days. That would be a monumental waste of resources.
Follow the guidelines and wait for the virus to die out.
Remember that the healthcare system is reactive to the virus and can only treat those who get it. It is the actions of the population at large which are proactive in tackling the virus as it is us, by those actions, who determine how many people get it.
Summarising points from Prof Neil Ferguson’s evidence to the UK Commons science committee as I think they are relevant here also :
* expect ... to see intensive care unit demand peak in approximately two and a half to three weeks time, and then decline thereafter. The reason for that lag is because it takes people something like two to three weeks from being infected to being in an intensive care unit.
* expects 10% of the population of London to be infected
* as countries around the world relaxed the suppression measures they would impose, they would have to rely on other strategies like testing and contact tracing
(from The Guardian)
* expect ... to see intensive care unit demand peak in approximately two and a half to three weeks time, and then decline thereafter. The reason for that lag is because it takes people something like two to three weeks from being infected to being in an intensive care unit.
* expects 10% of the population of London to be infected
* as countries around the world relaxed the suppression measures they would impose, they would have to rely on other strategies like testing and contact tracing
(from The Guardian)
If the 15 minute home tests below (mentioned by Firefly on main news thread) pan out, that would be a game changer.
Assuming they are made available here on same basis and relative quantities to the UK.
They may give a false sense of security if people test themselves too soon though (before antibodies appear):
www.theguardian.com
Assuming they are made available here on same basis and relative quantities to the UK.
They may give a false sense of security if people test themselves too soon though (before antibodies appear):
UK coronavirus home testing to be made available to millions
Test to be validated this week, then made available to healthcare workers and general public
www.theguardian.com
Reddit - Dive into anything
www.reddit.com
A graph projecting cases and capacity.
Grim stats from Italy on the impact on medical staff - will we see similar numbers here...
Thirty-nine health workers in Italy have died from coronavirus since the outbreak there began.
The virus has infected more than 5,000 doctors, nurses, technicians, ambulance staff and other health employees.
...
Negative-pressure isolation rooms, designed to contain airborne contaminants, are needed to treat coronavirus properly, to protect doctors and medical technicians from contracting the virus from their patients. But doctors say just a small proportion of Covid-19 patients in Italy are hospitalised in negative-pressure rooms, meaning the virus can easily spread.
www.theguardian.com
Thirty-nine health workers in Italy have died from coronavirus since the outbreak there began.
The virus has infected more than 5,000 doctors, nurses, technicians, ambulance staff and other health employees.
...
Negative-pressure isolation rooms, designed to contain airborne contaminants, are needed to treat coronavirus properly, to protect doctors and medical technicians from contracting the virus from their patients. But doctors say just a small proportion of Covid-19 patients in Italy are hospitalised in negative-pressure rooms, meaning the virus can easily spread.
'As if a storm hit': more than 40 Italian health workers have died since crisis began
Majority of those infected during early stages in the north when protective equipment lacking
www.theguardian.com