Situation in Ireland in 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months

[odyssey06]

THE HSE IS predicting that the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in Ireland will occur in two weeks time, between the 10 and 14 of April, according to the chief operations officer...
“But the other thing, just to reiterate, is that a peak will come and go whenever but we will continue to be very busy so it’s not like all of this will go away after the peak. We will continue to have a high number of people, an exceptionally large number of people, availing of our services once that peak has passed.”
She said if the measures introduced by the Government lead to a flattening of the curve, it also means the period of the peak outbreak will also be prolonged and will last for a number of days once it is reached, but that is the aim to avoid the HSE becoming overwhelmed all at once.

HSE planning for peak Covid-19 outbreak to happen in two weeks time based on current modelling

The chief operations officer said they are making preparations for the peak to arrive between the 10 and 14 April.

www.thejournal.ie

 

[llgon]

THE HSE IS predicting that the peak of the coronavirus outbreak in Ireland will occur in two weeks time, between the 10 and 14 of April, according to the chief operations officer.

I watched all of the press conference. This was said during the questions at the end rather than from pre-prepared script. I might be wrong but I got the impression that it slipped out and was not intended to be made public.

All of the speakers are obviously under severe pressure and exhausted but spoke very well and appear to be in control of the situation as well as they possibly can.

 

[odyssey06]

A self-isolation and step-down centre is to come into operation from next week at the Citywest Hotel and Conference centre in Dublin.
The centre is being set up to ease pressures on hospitals in the Dublin region and surrounding areas as the number of people expected to test positive for the Covid-19 coroanavirus increases in the coming weeks... The step-down care facility will provide 450 beds allocated to people who have tested positive and are recovering from the virus.

Here's what the Covid-19 self-isolation and step-down care centre will look like in Dublin

The centre is expected to be operational this week, with more centres to be established in Cork, Limerick and Galway.

www.thejournal.ie

 

[llgon]

Prof Nolan, who is chairing the modelling group, will be appearing at the Chief Medical Officers press conference this evening to speak about the latest models and projected cases over the coming weeks. However, it's difficult to find out what time those conferences are at.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

The messages certainly turned much more positive yesterday. They seem to be saying that the measures have worked and we are going to avoid the very worst high peak which would have swamped the hospitals.

Coronavirus: Restrictions resulting in ‘huge’ fall in rate of infection growth

Holohan warns on complacency as Higgins urges us to keep giving ‘of our best’

www.irishtimes.com

Prof Nolan, chair of the NPHET Irish epidemiological modelling advisory group, warned there was “no room for complacency” and the growth rate of the disease would have to be reduced to “close to zero” in order for it to be suppressed.

The daily growth rate of new cases has more than halved in recent weeks, from 33 per cent to about 15 per cent, he pointed out. As a result, Ireland is not on track for the “unmitigated epidemic” scenario that saw predictions earlier in March of 15,000 cases by the end of the month.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

RTE is even more cautious in its reporting:

More time needed for reliable surge projection - NPHET

Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, has said it is not possible to make a prediction on the surge in Covid-19 cases at this time, as more time was needed for a more reliable picture.

www.rte.ie

The chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group has said it was not possible to make a prediction on the surge in Covid-19 cases at this time, as more time was needed for a more reliable picture.

Speaking at this evening's Covid-19 briefing at the Department of Health, Professor Philip Nolan said that to make projections now on what things will be like in a few weeks or months would be inappropriate and based on assumptions that would be too broad.‬

 

[Firefly]

The chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group has said it was not possible to make a prediction on the surge in Covid-19 cases at this time, as more time was needed for a more reliable picture.

Given the lag there could very well be a spike in the coming days until the effects of Friday's lockdown take effect. It's encouraging, but we won't be organising pints anytime soon..

 

[Eireog007]

RTE is even more cautious in its reporting:

More time needed for reliable surge projection - NPHET

Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group, has said it is not possible to make a prediction on the surge in Covid-19 cases at this time, as more time was needed for a more reliable picture.

www.rte.ie

The chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group has said it was not possible to make a prediction on the surge in Covid-19 cases at this time, as more time was needed for a more reliable picture.

Speaking at this evening's Covid-19 briefing at the Department of Health, Professor Philip Nolan said that to make projections now on what things will be like in a few weeks or months would be inappropriate and based on assumptions that would be too broad.‬

I am quite happy for a more pessimistic/cautious outlook on how things are going myself. There are more than a few people who need little to no encouragement to back track if they think the worst is over. So under promise over deliver is the name of the game.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I am quite happy for a more pessimistic/cautious outlook on how things are going myself.

It's a tough call.

If you give people some hope, they might well be prepared to put up with the restrictions knowing that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

If you tell people that everyone is going to die of this, then they might throw in the towel.

Brendan

 

[allaround]

It's a tough call.

If you give people some hope, they might well be prepared to put up with the restrictions knowing that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

If you tell people that everyone is going to die of this, then they might throw in the towel.

Brendan

that's a fair point Brendan, I would also suggest that government stating possibility of 15k cases before the end of March has made people think about their behaviour/responsibility and we now see somewhat of a slowdown in % of cases increasing.

 

[john luc]

what are the numbers for recovered people. that number gives people hope that those getting sick also get better

 

[Eireog007]

what are the numbers for recovered people. that number gives people hope that those getting sick also get better

Still at 5 but I wouldn’t stress that number too highly as it takes a long time for recovery if hospitalised and I’m not sure how closely they are monitoring those with minor symptoms.
Only numbers of any real concern are hospitalisations, ICU admisssions and deaths really. To a lesser extent the daily new case number is also relevant but less of a critical issue if the other numbers are not rising in tandem.

 

[odyssey06]

Still at 5 but I wouldn’t stress that number too highly as it takes a long time for recovery if hospitalised and I’m not sure how closely they are monitoring those with minor symptoms.
Only numbers of any real concern are hospitalisations, ICU admisssions and deaths really. To a lesser extent the daily new case number is also relevant but less of a critical issue if the other numbers are not rising in tandem.

On that - saw this on RTE:
The President of the Intensive Care Society of Ireland says she is encouraged that there is a fall off in Covid-19 cases and contact cases and "devoutly hopes" that the restrictions are working and will continue to work. However, Dr Catherine Motherway warned that ICUs in Dublin are under significant pressure with 107 patients on ventilators while there are another 26 patients, with suspected coronavirus, in ICU beds.

 

[odyssey06]

I would be very surprised if she actually said that. If she did, she shouldn't have, because there's a bit of a shock coming down the line and she would have known that.

I take your point... but here is the link to the brief RTE article:

As it happened: More than 3,000 cases in Ireland

The President of the Intensive Care Society of Ireland says she is encouraged that there is a fall off in Covid-19 cases and contact cases and "devoutly hopes" that the restrictions are working and will continue to work. However, Dr …

www.rte.ie

 

[noproblem]

I take your point... but here is the link to the brief RTE article:

As it happened: More than 3,000 cases in Ireland

The President of the Intensive Care Society of Ireland says she is encouraged that there is a fall off in Covid-19 cases and contact cases and "devoutly hopes" that the restrictions are working and will continue to work. However, Dr …

www.rte.ie

Yes, I got it and understand. I have deleted my original post, I think.

 

[Leo]

Yes, I got it and understand. I have deleted my original post, I think.

Aw, I thought you might have some inside info I deleted your edited post and my reply.

 

[noproblem]

Aw, I thought you might have some inside info I deleted your edited post and my reply.

Ahem!

 

[SPC100]

I watched yesterday's press conference, he was very precise. He said that the rate of growth is dropping which is good, but it is impossible to predict peak or surge as the model is very sensitive to inputs.

He said we will need to wait a week or so before any accuracy for a prediction. (To see the effect of the latest restrictions).