"Should I buy AIB shares in the IPO?"

Brendan Burgess

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We don't allow speculation about shares prices on Askaboutmoney, but here are some general guidance notes. These apply to all shares.

If you have borrowings, other than a tracker mortgage, you should repay those borrowings before buying any shares.

Most people understand that they should not borrow money at 3.5% to buy shares which might go up or down in value. But they don't understand that if you have a mortgage costing them 3.5% and €20,000 cash, by buying shares with the €20,000 they are effectively borrowing to invest.

If you have cash left over after paying off your mortgage, there might be better things to do with your cash.
For example, have you contributed the maximum allowed to your pension fund?

This is likely to provide a better long-term, after-tax return than buying shares directly, i.e. not through a pension fund.

The best way to invest in shares is through a diversified portfolio or through an Exchange Traded Fund

No matter how good you think a particular share is, it's risky to invest a high proportion of your assets - say more than 5% - in that share. So if you want to buy shares, buy shares in at least 10 different companies diversified according to industry (e.g. banking, airlines, construction, engineering,etc.). You should also diversify according to where they earn their profits from. Most large blue-chip companies have sales in the EU, America and elsewhere in the world.

AIB is one single industry banking highly dependent on one economy - Ireland.

"But won't AIB be priced by the government at an artificially low price to ensure a successful sale?"

Many people buy as many shares as possible in a flotation on the grounds that the price will rise immediately after the flotation.

This happens from time to time, but it's not always the case. Buying any one share is risky, at an IPO or not.

"But aren't the stockbrokers tipping these shares as a good buy?"
Stockbrokers have a terrible record in forecasting share prices. What they say is pretty much irrelevant. Ignore them.

Stock brokers make their commission through their clients buying and selling shares. (Although they are not getting paid for selling the shares in this IPO).

"I fancy a punt, how do I buy them?"

AIB flotation process - Guide and FAQ for those who are thinking of buying shares
 
I have been told by a journalist than none of the stock brokers are publishing any research on AIB until after IPO????

But, yet they are visiting their institutional clients, promoting the IPO.

This is all very odd.

Brendan
 
How will the price of the shares be determined?

For institutional investors there will be a book building exercise.
In other words, an institution will place an order for 10m shares at €3.90 , but only 5m shares if the price is €4.50 and no shares if the price is over €4.50.
They will then assess all the orders and set the price at say €4.30.


Individuals must commit in advance to buying a certain amount of shares without knowing the price!

So if the institutions push the price up to €4.90, that is the price an individual will have to pay.

Brendan
 
Hi Brendan,

I am not going to discuss a specific share in line with the forum guidelines.

Some individuals who I have faith in believe that prospective IPO participants would be better served by simply buying something similar (e.g. another large Irish bank) if they're hoping for a quick win.

Caveat emptor...

Gordon
 
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Surely the list should start with:

1. You have analysed the company's operations & financials,
2. You have a view on AIB's future performance and what that will mean for EPS,
3. You have compared the equity value/book value/EPS of AIB with that of comparable companies,
4. You have assessed the risks affecting the business and believe they are sufficiently mitigated to reflect your expected risk/return

No one should buy any standalone stock unless they actually understand the business & accounts.

If they don't then they're just gambling.
 
No one should buy any standalone stock unless they actually understand the business & accounts.

If they don't then they're just gambling.

No. If they do, they are just fooling themselves that they can beat the market. There is absolutely no evidence that such analysis is of any value.

Brendan
 
No. If they do, they are just fooling themselves that they can beat the market. There is absolutely no evidence that such analysis is of any value.

Brendan

Seriously?

There is no evidence that analyzing a company is of any value? Wow.

If that's the case then why bemoan the lack of Broker Reports as a Broker Report is effectively outsourced analysis?
 
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There is no evidence that analyzing a company is of any value? Wow.

Hi Andy

Surprising as it may seem there is no point in you or any potential investor other than perhaps Warren Buffet doing any analysis. You simply can't pick winners.

The cumulative knowledge of all the analysts does result in reasonable estimate of the fair price.

I think it's very odd that the Department has told the brokers not to publish any analysis. They are doing it and giving it quietly to institutional clients. If no one did any analysis, the market would not be efficient. If a few them do it, the market will be more or less efficient.

Brendan
 
I disagree. You can never predict the future but you should be able to tell if you are overpaying for something or not.

Most of valuation these days is about relative value, you should want to double check that by buying Company X you're not paying a premium to Company Y or Z if you think Company X has the same characteristics/risks/potential as Companies Y & Z.

Re Broker reports - I presume the opposition to retail broker reports dates back to the losses investors suffered on Eircom? Don't know if they were prevalent back then though.
 
Andy there is just no evidence that this analysis allows anyone decide if they are overpaying for something or not.

Having said that, I am impressed with your analysis here:

https://www.askaboutmoney.com/threa...es-in-the-aib-prospectus.204001/#post-1519716

In a proper market, this analysis would have been done and published by a few different analysts and so the price would reflect this.

There has never been an IPO before in Ireland where the stock brokers were instructed not to comment publicly. This is unprecedented.



Brendan
 
Hi Brendan,

I am not going to discuss a specific share in line with the forum guidelines.

Some individuals who I have faith in believe that prospective IPO participants would be better served by simply buying something similar (e.g. another large Irish bank) if they're hoping for a quick win.

Caveat emptor...

Gordon

Just to clarify, there is a school of thought that buying Bank of Ireland as an alternative makes sense if the view is that AIB will enjoy (say) a 10% bounce, as BOI might very well follow.
 
Brendan,
I read the shares will be conditionally traded from Friday and fully traded from Tuesday. What does "conditionally traded" mean and can the individual investor sell from Friday? Thanks.
 
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