Sell shares to overpay mortgage?

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You grew an investment of 300k into 3m in 4 years. Some think this was luck some think this was good strategy. Over 100 posts on here mean opinions differ widely. But for this to be a good strategy it needs to be repeatable with similar results.

Everyone free in November 2025 for one half to tell the other I told you so?
 
Cardano93 said:
100k worth of various Pharma stocks including Lilly, Regeneron, Pfizer, Mylan (Now Viatris), Allergan (Now Abbvie), Biomarin, Curis & Novartis.
Current Value €375k with dividend yield of just under 1%
30k worth of Tesla stock (200 x shares pre-split)
Current value: €1M no yield
€50k (500,000 units) x Cardano (ADA), at average cost of €0.10.
Current value €850k with staking yield of 5.15%
€40k (8 x BTC) Bitcoin at average price of €5k.
Current value €400k. No yield
€20k mixed bag of tech stocks (NVIDIA, Amazon, Broadcom, Apple,)
Current value: €110k No yield
€20k mixed bag of Irish banking stocks (AIB and BoI).
Current value: €17k No yield
€20k Mixed bag of Oil stocks (Tullow, Aramco)
Current Value €22k No yield
€17k of Gold
Current value €25k No yield
€3k (5kg) of Silver at approx €600 per kg
Current Value €3.5k No yield

Current yield on above is approx €35k per annum which is all re-invested into other part of portfolio containing value stocks. If taken nett this would pay current mortgage (1200 per month). Due to high volatility on Crypto and Tesla the value of above has major swings (down over €100k overnight on Cardano for example) however I intend to hold for another 7-8 years and continue DRIP into dividend and low PE value stocks which are currently being purchased monthly from salary.

At present I am extremely bullish on certain Chinese stocks (e-Commerce, AI, Electric Vehicles and 1 x particularly Large Tech Company). I also have similar levels of conviction for these as I did on above investment.
Max AVC being made into self administered Pension pot, over half way to current government cap. Will continue to build and re-assess retirement date if and when Cap is raised.

Not bad for a pig Gordon.
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As others have said your numbers have come up. Well done. But the game is not over yet. Just like Cardano going down €100k overnight your 3 big winners could go to zero. Is it time to cash out of those and de-risk?
 
skrooge said:
You grew an investment of 300k into 3m in 4 years. Some think this was luck some think this was good strategy. Over 100 posts on here mean opinions differ widely. But for this to be a good strategy it needs to be repeatable with similar results.

Everyone free in November 2025 for one half to tell the other I told you so?
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Therein lies the issue.

In the modern world, everyone thinks that they are entitled to an ‘opinion’, and that their opinion is as valid as the next person’s.

Perhaps it’s a function of the “everyone’s a winner” nonsense that has become pervasive with a little bit of the deemed equality that social media provides layered on?

A fool’s opinion is not as valid as an expert’s.

This is why we have architects arguing with epidemiologists on social media.

I have no doubt that there are massively qualified investment professionals contributing to these pages. Yet the modern world pits their ‘opinions’ against that of bedwetting cryto-scamartists and fantasists whose idea of research and analysis is skim-reading an article on their iPhone whilst sitting on the porcelain throne.
 
RedOnion said:
I meet those conditions. I'd be interested in seeing your thoughts on why I should possibly do an equity release to invest.
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I don't believe the suggestion was to take an equity release. The debate started on the premise that if you hold a mortgage and use excess cash flow to invest in equities rather than overpaying mortgage then it is equivalent of borrowing to invest.

Releasing equity from your home for the purpose of investing is something entirely different and certainly not what I was advising.
 
Well done on your past investments! That is truely amazing. I'm jealous of your results!

Two points:

1. I'd agree with suggestions to diversify a good bit out crypto and Tesla to minimize potential future loses. There are many reasons why either of them could drop a lot or even to 0.

You have already won the game of life, you should bank enough of that prize money to ensure you can enjoy that win for the rest of your life. Even after banking that more safely you still have enough funds that if you can repeat your feat you can win the game of the universe.

In short, I'd vote for more aggressive diversifying ASAP.

2. the financial literature would say you are either warren Buffett or a very lucky winner. As you do research you must understand that you can't simply throw out decades of financial research papers. Mathematically you can see that there will be some big winners and some losers expected based on probability over any time period, but research shows there are very few long term big winners in the world.

You can decide you have warren buffet level skill, say one in a billion people type skill, and you have the midas touch. Or you can be more humble and accept that you were very lucky to be one of the rare but expected statistical outcomes of billions of people investing in the markets over the last 4 years.
 
Dublinbay12 said:
I don't believe the suggestion was to take an equity release. The debate started on the premise that if you hold a mortgage and use excess cash flow to invest in equities rather than overpaying mortgage then it is equivalent of borrowing to invest.

Releasing equity from your home for the purpose of investing is something entirely different and certainly not what I was advising.
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Two people:

1) No mortgage and releases €200k of equity to invest.

2) €200k mortgage, inherits €200k, and invests it

What’s the difference?
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Two people:

1) No mortgage and releases €200k of equity to invest.

2) €200k mortgage, inherits €200k, and invests it

What’s the difference?
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Person 1 is going from 0 debt to 200k debt (incremental debt gain). Person 2 still only has 200k debt (no incremental debt gain).

So it is entirely different, the original premise was you 'save' more by paying of your mortgage, in your scenario your proposing an increase in debt.
 
Cardano93 said:
The intelligent Investor by Ben Graham is my constant reference
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Ben Graham is widely considered to be the father of value investing.

Tesla and crypto currencies are not value plays in any language.

Look, your bets clearly paid off but that doesn't make you an investing genius. It just means you got lucky.
 
Fantastic result @Cardano93! You took some risks and they worked out, fairplay! I am not sure why some people are so begrudging that they have to claim it was luck or that you couldn't have done adequate research.
 
Dublinbay12 said:
Person 1 is going from 0 debt to 200k debt (incremental debt gain). Person 2 still only has 200k debt (no incremental debt gain).

So it is entirely different, the original premise was you 'save' more by paying of your mortgage, in your scenario your proposing an increase in debt.
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You’re looking at the change in positions rather than the positions.

Person 1 has €200k of mortgage debt and €200k of investments.

So does Person 2.

The flipside is that Person 2 could become Person 1 by repaying the mortgage.

If you have personal investments and you are carrying debt of any kind, you are effectively borrowing to invest which, with our tax code, doesn’t really make sense.

A few crypto or Tesla warriors won’t disprove that.
 
Dublinbay12 said:
I am not sure why some people are so begrudging that they have to claim it was luck or that you couldn't have done adequate research.
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Because nobody applying the principles advocated by Ben Graham would ever invest in Tesla or cryptos.

It's not begrudgery to say that somebody got lucky - in this case it's a statement of fact.
 
Ben Graham’s book is legendary, but reading it and then punting Tesla and cryptos is hardly the definition of research.

The poster got lucky, great, but the hubris to not recognise that is likely to result in tears further down the line.

There is no shame in admitting to being a spoofer who got lucky in the right place at the right time. Some of the most successful people I know have the self-awareness to do just that.
 
Sarenco said:
Why?

In both cases, the person ends up with €200k in debt and €200k in investments.

What's the difference?
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Are you serious?!.....I suggest you go back to the start of the thread and reread what started the conversation. The discussion was using free cash flow to invest in equities vs paying off your mortgage, there are those who believe investing in equities when having a mortgage is the same as borrowing to invest.

My opinion is it is not, and then we moved onto a discussion of risk returns. In this highly hypothetical situation Gordon presented, there is an incremental debt increase for person 1, thats the difference, its irrelevant where they end up as there is a fundamental change from the starting position, do you not agree?
 
Fair play to you.

The phrase about pigs finding acorns isn’t actually calling you a pig, nor were you called a fool, nor were you called a spoofer.

If I said “one swallow doesn’t make a summer”, would you accuse me of calling you a bird?
 
Cardano93 said:
I continue to seek out value investments however when higher risk opportunities arise (eg China examples I referred to earlier), I do consider the fundamentals together with cost and upside and if convinced will invest. I can afford to do so given my current capital.
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I would be interested in what kind of stocks you are looking at? I have some cash I am willing to take a punt with.

That is some result with your investments.
 
Sarenco said:
Because nobody applying the principles advocated by Ben Graham would ever invest in Tesla or cryptos.

It's not begrudgery to say that somebody got lucky - in this case it's a statement of fact.
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Ben Graham wrote a book.....and it wasn't the bible.

You are envious are dismissive of Cardanos success by claiming it is luck. I am not sure if this is because you are envious of his financial gains or because he hasn't followed exactly the rules of some investment book you read. The notion that his success can only not be luck if they can repeat it is also nonsense.

I know I know Ben Graham wrote a book that many consider the best book on investment....but do you really think this book is handed out on day 1 on the job as an investor? I can tell you its not, further more you don't need to repeat a strategy over 20 years for it to be a monetary success....see every Hedge fund. If you believe you can only be successful in the stock market by being a genius and following the rules exactly of a book on one strategy, you are mistaken.

Luck is putting 300k on a horse at 10/1 because it shares the name with your favorite singer and it winning. Picking a portfolio of stocks that over 3 years has had significant return is not luck, nor does it make him a genius. You don't need to be a genius to make money in the stock market.

It was risk, Cardano made riskier investments and it worked out, but its disrespectful to call it luck. I don't even think many of his investments were unexpected for anybody that pays attention to the markets over the last 10 years. He wasn't picking obscure unknown companies, he was picking the darlings of the tech world. Even his investment in Cardano, it was founded by the co-founder of ethereum.

Ultimately you should be looking at this from a risk basis.

After all doesn't every person on this thread have the same goal of enhancing their financial position? So not sure why people feel the need to be so dismissive, all it does is encourage people to step away from the forum and leave an echo chamber of four posters with the same view.
 
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