Russian Foreign Policy

Purple

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If the President is meant to be above politics and to keep his personal views to himself, and broadly I agree with this, then he should not be subject to personal attacks like yours.
Why?
I formed that opinion when he was Minister for Galway.

He's also entitled to formed an opinion on me and share it publicly.
 

Purple

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There's a great article in the economist this week about Russia and sanctions. It postulates that sanctions aren't doing what the West thought they would do.
Russia's economy will shrink by 6% this year, not the 15% forecasted in March when sanctions were imposed. China is trading openly with them and the Middle East is providing a surrogate banking system for them. There are $280 billion in Russian assets frozen in Western Banks but they will generate a current-account surplus of $265bn this year due to energy sales. Countries that make up 40% of the global economy are continuing to trade fully with Russia. China will continue to trade with them and do all they can to keep their economy functioning because they want to put down a marker on sanctions so that the West doesn't think they can try the same thing if they invade Taiwan.


Sanctions aren't working. It's time to accept that for better or worse military power is all that really matters when diplomacy fails.
 

odyssey06

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There's a great article in the economist this week about Russia and sanctions. It postulates that sanctions aren't doing what the West thought they would do.
Russia's economy will shrink by 6% this year, not the 15% forecasted in March when sanctions were imposed. China is trading openly with them and the Middle East is providing a surrogate banking system for them. There are $280 billion in Russian assets frozen in Western Banks but they will generate a current-account surplus of $265bn this year due to energy sales. Countries that make up 40% of the global economy are continuing to trade fully with Russia. China will continue to trade with them and do all they can to keep their economy functioning because they want to put down a marker on sanctions so that the West doesn't think they can try the same thing if they invade Taiwan.


Sanctions aren't working. It's time to accept that for better or worse military power is all that really matters when diplomacy fails.
I cant read the full article but I wonder if the Economist has fully factored in the effect of sanctions on Russias abilith to sustain, rebuild / expand its military power.

Finding different outlets for gas is not quick without pipelines. They are selling oil but at a discount.
 
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Purple

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I cant read the full article but I wonder if the Economist has fully factored in the effect of sanctions on Russias abilith to sustain, rebuild / expand its military power.

Finding different outlets for gas is not quick without pipelines. They are selling oil but at a discount.
If you register without subscribing you get a few free articles.
 

Purple

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Russia not resuming Nord Stream 1 supplies - no longer hiding behind technical issues
Yep, it's heating up. I'm nearly 50 and while we are not close to a third world war we are closer to one that at any point in my lifetime, possibly since the end of the Second World War.
We should be worried about the cost of living. While unlikely the possibility of nuclear war should temper our ire.
 

Firefly

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Putin meeting with Xi and spouting the usual double-speak. Does he think we're all thick or something?

“We jointly stand for the formation of a just, democratic and multipolar world order based on international law and the central role of the U.N., and not on some rules that someone has come up with and is trying to impose on others, without even explaining what it’s about,” Mr. Putin told Mr. Xi

 

Purple

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Putin meeting with Xi and spouting the usual double-speak. Does he think we're all thick or something?

“We jointly stand for the formation of a just, democratic and multipolar world order based on international law and the central role of the U.N., and not on some rules that someone has come up with and is trying to impose on others, without even explaining what it’s about,” Mr. Putin told Mr. Xi

Putin and Xi are in favour of a just and democratic world? Wow, that's good news. Did they give a date for when they are resigning?
 

Seagull

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Putin and Xi are in favour of a just and democratic world? Wow, that's good news. Did they give a date for when they are resigning?
That's based on their definition of just and democratic, which don't necessarily bear much resemblance to the commonly accepted version.
 

odyssey06

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A Twitter takedown on the various pro Russian types on social media from

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odyssey06

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Putin is introducing conscription. We're in for a long war.
It is conscription of reservists - 300,000. But without tanks, artillery, etc etc they will be just cannon fodder. Russia has lost so much equipment already, much of its reserve equipment is potemkin village stuff, and the sanctions will make it difficult to replace them.
 

Purple

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It is conscription of reservists - 300,000. But without tanks, artillery, etc etc they will be just cannon fodder. Russia has lost so much equipment already, much of its reserve equipment is potemkin village stuff, and the sanctions will make it difficult to replace them.
The Potemkin Village analogy is actually quite apt in that the story is a misrepresentation of the truth by Potemkin's detractors. He's also, more than anyone, the reason Russia can make a claim to Ukraine in general and Crimea in particular. He was Governor of the province of Novorossiya "New Russia", now Southern Ukraine, which was captured from the Ottomans and local Khanates (he was actively involved in that conflict too) when he annexed Crimea in 1783.
It's not popular to point out but much of the population of the region is made up of the descendants of the people who were planted there by Russia. They were mainly Romanians, Serbs and northern Ukrainians.

Before Russia the area had been part of the Golden Hoard, then it fragmented with areas controlled by many powers but without the Russians it would have been Ottoman/Turkic.
That of course in no way negates the right of the people of Ukraine to self determination but it is interesting.

As for the current shortage of equipment; Russia and China are joined at the hip when it comes to military technology so it's virtually inconceivable that China won't continue to supply Russia with equipment.
 

odyssey06

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Missing from that montage is the Realist. If realistically Russia can hold on to those territories who actually welcome being part of Russia what is the point of continuing the war?
They dont welcome them.
They invaded and have threatened, killed and murdered those who opposed them. Any vote is a corrupt sham.
Such actions cannot be allowed to stand.
 
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