Peak of the virus

I presume that the number of new infections stop rising per day. there will still be people turning up as infected but less per week than previous weeks
 
In the context of what was said by the Chief Operations Officer of the HSE today?

This is the quote from the journal.ie:

“We do have to work on some basis when it comes to planning and we are planning for a peak between the 10 and 14 April, around that time.”

So from that point of view I would think it means when the HSE and hospitals are at their busiest. However, I don't think it's entirely clear.
 
A very good question and this is my understanding of it:

There are a few different peaks

1) The peak of new infections after which the numbers of new infections begins to fall

2) The peak in hospital admissions which is probably the one worrying the HSE the most. This is probably 10 days after the first peak
2A) The peak numbers in intensive care

3) The peak in deaths which is probably a few days later again

So when new cases begin to fall and the long-term outlook is improving, the numbers of deaths will continue to rise for a while.

Brendan
 
the important number I think will be the rate of new infections. if this starts to fall then we can see a way ahead for all the other numbers to reach a total number.
 
There are 200 new cases today. Update: 295 cases on Monday 30th

That is "only" an 8% increase.

4394
 

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and its not rising exponentially therefore the measures to contain it are definitely working, there is still a long way to go though
 
Id be wary about interpreting numbers of positives over the weekends. Generally there are only a couple of scientists on call ( in hospital laboratories anyway). Also there is a very large backlog of swabs so these numbers may refer to some cases that were swabbed a week ago. I missed the news was there any mention of daily Lab capacity or turnaround times ?
 
Susie2017 said:
Id be wary about interpreting numbers of positives over the weekends. Generally there are only a couple of scientists on call ( in hospital laboratories anyway). Also there is a very large backlog of swabs so these numbers may refer to some cases that were swabbed a week ago. I missed the news was there any mention of daily Lab capacity or turnaround times ?
Click to expand...

Id be very surprised if the labs are not running a full compliment each and every day during a virus pandemic.
 
Susie2017 said:
Id be wary about interpreting numbers of positives over the weekends. Generally there are only a couple of scientists on call ( in hospital laboratories anyway). Also there is a very large backlog of swabs so these numbers may refer to some cases that were swabbed a week ago. I missed the news was there any mention of daily Lab capacity or turnaround times ?
Click to expand...

Yes there are only a couple of people on call in the labs. The unions have also demanded 2 hour lunch breaks and nobody is to work weekends. Are we seriously going to allow people peddle any unfounded rubbish?
 
According to news media contacts, the information given at press conferences is as of mid-day the the day before the press briefing. I think that makes it doubly difficult if not impossible for Sean & Sheila citizen to recognize a peak or forecast one, whatever kind the peak is.

For me the peak is when there are no new diagnoses of the virus and when the last person diagnosed as infected either dies or recovers to a stage where they are no longer infective.
 
Sunny said:
The unions have also demanded 2 hour lunch breaks and nobody is to work weekends.
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There is a testing backlog in the middle of a pandemic. What about statutory meal breaks and week-end overtime? This is a crisis what about the Beloved Leader weilding his emergency powers baton? What about underemployed technicians and scientists in 3rd level institutions, set up 24 hour rotas?
 
OP here - thanks for the comments.

Here's where I'm at
1. We talk about the peak but we don't know what it means.
2. Even if we knew what it means, we may not have much of a clue when we are there because of deficiencies in the testing regime (i.e. a limit on the amount of tests, the delay in the test results, the fact that very many suspected cases are not even being tested and that people could carry the virus but be non-symptomatic, etc.)

Apart from the above, I'm struggling to understand:
1. Why the HSE suggested today that the peak may be in c. 2 weeks time?
2. How many people are expected to have the virus in total - remember the non-disputed figure of 40% of the population of a few weeks back, has that gone by the wayside?
 
elacsaplau, you are asking questions that, if they are honest, no one can answer.

This is a new virus and modelling by its nature is approximate and dependent on several factors.
 
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How can anyone talk about a peak when there's no cure for the virus? Ok, people can talk about it, but it's total speculation what's being said.
 
Medical Laboratory Scientists in the main work 8 - 6 mon - fri. Outside if that its on call. On call is rostered and not all scientists choose to be rostered for on call duties. You cant go on call unless you have additional training in the on call area required. Testing requires kits, reagents and a platform plus staff to work it. If theres a backlog then any one of these could be the reason for reduced turnaround times.
 
Faster than they would like, the Government's Great Coronavirus Pandemic Response Plan, GGCPRP is unravelling.

  • Not enough kits to to take swabs
  • Announcements for orders for 55,000 new sample kits. That's about enough to test 0.012% of the population once. And sure no-one will need to be tested more than once.
  • New swabbing centres set up remote from testing centres - no logistics planners available to Leo, Holohan & Co?
  • Queues and delays for swabbing for infections and testing the swabs grow longer
  • Testing reagents run out in at least one testing centre
  • Industrialist disputes the number of respirators / ventilators produced by Medtronics in Galway - IDA says 50% of world-wide ICU demand, industrialist, a supplier to Medtronics, says 10%. No one knows how many we'll need
  • Government announces two-week lockdown, UK scientist says their lockdown must last until June
  • Lab technicians' union insists on a work-to-rule
I'm sure I've missed loads, ICU beds, the stupid yellow booklet and so on.

Please explain how those most vulnerable in our society will survive this pandemic and how anyone can identify the peak?
 
mathepac said:
Faster than they would like, the Government's Great Coronavirus Pandemic Response Plan, GGCPRP is unravelling.

  • Not enough kits to to take swabs
  • Announcements for orders for 55,000 new sample kits. That's about enough to test 0.012% of the population once. And sure no-one will need to be tested more than once.
  • New swabbing centres set up remote from testing centres - no logistics planners available to Leo, Holohan & Co?
  • Queues and delays for swabbing for infections and testing the swabs grow longer
  • Testing reagents run out in at least one testing centre
  • Industrialist disputes the number of respirators / ventilators produced by Medtronics in Galway - IDA says 50% of world-wide ICU demand, industrialist, a supplier to Medtronics, says 10%. No one knows how many we'll need
  • Government announces two-week lockdown, UK scientist says their lockdown must last until June
  • Lab technicians' union insists on a work-to-rule
I'm sure I've missed loads, ICU beds, the stupid yellow booklet and so on.

Please explain how those most vulnerable in our society will survive this pandemic and how anyone can identify the peak?
Click to expand...

The last thing we need at this time is cynical cynicism (and that's from the most leprous cynic in Christendom).

1. For a start the Yellow Booklet was not stupid. It was sent to every home to assist during the pandemic. I bet if the booklet was not sent, you'd be complaining too.

2. OK! We ran out of test kits. The HSE used what it had and didn't store them. I understand new test kits will be available in every test centre today.
3. We haven't time for full logistical planning. Newsflash! We're in a pandemic.
4. Yes there are queues for swabbing. Such is the nature of the beast every hypochondriac in the country thinks he's infected.
5. Leo Varadkar is not Genie, he just can't blink and have plentiful supply of ventilators etc at the end of Larry Hagmans bed.
6. The government has imposed a near lockdown for two weeks. It was not suggested that it would last for this period only.
7. I don't know what you are talking about re "Lab technicians' union insisting on a work-to-rule.
8. The HSE is doing as well as it can with ICU beds. The private hospitals have come in with HSE on this one. In other words the country is doing as best it can.
9. Our borders may close shortly.
10. Things will get much worse and the last thing the country needs is abject cynicism.

I predict that before this pandemic is over in the rest of europe that it will be well over in Ireland. I predict we will be taking Covid-19 patients from other countries for hospitalisation here. Let's stop knocking our own for a change.
 
mathepac said:
Faster than they would like, the Government's Great Coronavirus Pandemic Response Plan, GGCPRP is unravelling.

  • Not enough kits to to take swabs
  • Announcements for orders for 55,000 new sample kits. That's about enough to test 0.012% of the population once. And sure no-one will need to be tested more than once.
  • New swabbing centres set up remote from testing centres - no logistics planners available to Leo, Holohan & Co?
  • Queues and delays for swabbing for infections and testing the swabs grow longer
  • Testing reagents run out in at least one testing centre
  • Industrialist disputes the number of respirators / ventilators produced by Medtronics in Galway - IDA says 50% of world-wide ICU demand, industrialist, a supplier to Medtronics, says 10%. No one knows how many we'll need
  • Government announces two-week lockdown, UK scientist says their lockdown must last until June
  • Lab technicians' union insists on a work-to-rule
I'm sure I've missed loads, ICU beds, the stupid yellow booklet and so on.

Please explain how those most vulnerable in our society will survive this pandemic and how anyone can identify the peak?
Click to expand...
  • The entire world is currently working with a restricted number of test kits and you’re referring to one test site out of 44 which was down for less than a day.
  • 55,000 would cover 1.2% of the population I think you’ve misread your calculator there. Also we need enough tests to cover the potentially infected population not the entire population.
  • It is far easier to set up swabbing locations to easily cover all of the country than have everybody drive to the smaller number of testing labs which is also the more efficient way to collect as many samples as possible.
  • Have you any numbers to back up this claim? The number of tests being checked is increasing every day and the new criteria has restricted the number of people being checked.
  • Covered in my point above, the centre at Parc Ui Coaimh was down for half a day and will be back operational today.
  • Government body says one thing vs one unnamed source. Again do you have any sources with any details at all? Once again no country in the world has an exact idea of how many ventilators they will need but we somehow should.
  • Once again one person making a claim (it may be accurate). The UK government also initially stated their lockdown would only last a number of weeks. It’s almost as if no government can predict when the peak of infections will hit and don’t want to tell everybody that they will be locked down for months on end as they are afraid of unrest and a drop in public engagement. It’s also possible that they are adjusting their response to an unprecedented situation as new information comes in. Shocking I know.
  • Once again please provide any proof at all of this and how it will negatively effect testing.
  • Try sticking to facts please and not half truths/completely unsubstantiated rumours from Whatsapp etc.
 
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