Paddy Power's predictions for the election

Leper said:
Our vote is in Cork South Central (4 seater and almost a foregone conclusion this time - 3 sitting TD's to be reelected Martin, McGrath, Coveney with the 4th P O'Laoghaire SF trying to fight off the Greens and the other FG contestant Jerry Buttimer. I stopped off in Paddy Power's and saw that the Jerry Buttimer is 9/2 against getting elected. I thought that good value and shoved my tenner fun bet on him. Mrs Lep bought into it too and gambled another tenner. We figure that SF and Greens would cost each other votes with FG to favourably pick up transfers.

Other suggestions in any constituency welcomed.
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Mrs lep who is good with money now has to give her no one vote to FG along with leper to save there 20 euro,
You should never bet in your own constituency,
 
josh8267 said:
Mrs lep who is good with money now has to give her no one vote to FG along with leper to save there 20 euro,
You should never bet in your own constituency,
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No she doesn't. Both bets were for fun and to make a few easy bob. The first three past the post in Cork South Central is a given. The fourth (our friendly bet aforementioned) could go to one of another three. It will be close. I know Cork South Central like the Vietcong knew tunnels.
 
I am well aware you seen at first hand how our political system works just nipping under the skin so to speak,
Back to the Betting It something like the Pension Fiasco surfaced in the last days of the general election would it have any affect down your side of the wood,
I suspect down my side of the wood it would affect the main political parties, when it comes to the last seat there are a few banana skins around you know,
 
The latest SBP poll shows
FF 26%
FG 23%
SF 19%

With two weeks to go before the election, surely that is not that big a gap between FF and FG?

Not to justify making Micheál Martin hot favourite to be Taoiseach and Varadkar an outsider.

1) There is a margin of error in the poll
2) Even if the poll is accurate, people might change their minds over the next two weeks.

Brendan
 
Daddy Ireland said:
I see Buttimer is now 8/1. Worth a small flutter ?
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I wonder if you have some good insight into a particular constituency e.g. access to one of the parties' private constituency polls, would you have an edge over Paddy Power?

But even if you do, I doubt that they would take a material bet.

Brendan
 
Getting the feeling the people are tilting to a FG/SF government, expecting them to come close to enough seats,
FF making promising left right and Center private polls must not be looking good for them,FF appear to be rattled,
 
Paddy Power has changed the odds on Micheál Martin from 1/8 to 1/9 while leaving Leo at 9/2. Mary Lou McDonald is now 16/1 to be Taoiseach.

4244
 
Leper said:
I backed him @ 9/2. 's not good value now. He's gone out to 8/1 so next week's fun tenner will go on him too.
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Laper
Take a look at the 1948 General election results 13 Dail 4 of feb 1948 in cork,
Dev was at the same thing Michael is at now ,trying to stop the rise of Clann na Poblachta threatened the power of the main Parties see how that worked out for them back then,
World war 2 over things beginning to get better people felt they were not getting a fair share, Rural Ireland uneasy about how the main political parties were treating them,
Have a very good look at the TDs from the splinter parties getting Elected with very low % of the vote,
FF carved up the country in 3 seat constituency's to there advantage from 15 to 22, people including lots of his supporters decide it was time to send them a message ,
After the election,
The First Inter Party Government Came to Power
Its worth looking at how people voted back then in your constituency to make sure change came about,
Look at the support for smaller parties
Look how people gave smaller party candidates transfers putting them ahead of the main parties for last seats,

Just for the record the General election to elect the last Candidate to the 13 Dail was held on the 8 of feb 1948 in Carlow/Kilkenny,

I watched the leaders Debate the other tonight , I focused more on how the audience responded to the main parties and how much respect they had for them not much I would say,
 
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Cork South Central is about as predictable as sunshine in Spain with three of the four seats to be filled with Coveney, Martin and Mc Grath each of whom could share the role of Taoiseach over the next five years. It's the 4th seat that could cause problems. Will SF retain? Will the Greens come through? Or will Buttimer FG recover his seat?

I'm betting that the sitting SF candidate and the Green party will get in each others way and cause Buttimer to be elected. Buttimer lost out last time but subsequently was elected to the Senate. It's only a hunch, but I think if there is a surprise here it will be him. Odds of 8/1 in a six horse rate with Coveney's transfers don't appear bad to me.

I looked at some previous election results in Cork city. Vote Management was hardly ever a problem to the main parties. But, we're in a different era now where homelessness is more visible, the economy perceived as king, age of retirement under scrutiny, NI a matter of less concern, Immigration, Full Employment, Brexit, Emigration. I think the average Cork Voter will choose conservatively while the Celtic Jersey Bar Stool Republicans and Green Brigades will get in each other's way. We'll know for sure over the next fortnight.
 
LAB 1
FG 2
SF 3
Greens4
PBP 5
SD 6
FF 7
Even though I have Greens at NO 4 They well be getting my no 1 vote ,
FF have peaked
smaller parties are going to get a lot more seats than people on hear think, All did as well if not better than FF
 
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Unless you're betting high stakes there is no point taking odds of 1/7.

An interesting punt would be Mary Lou McDonald for Tánaiste @ 5/1.
 
Leper said:
Unless you're betting high stakes there is no point taking odds of 1/7.

An interesting punt would be Mary Lou McDonald for Tánaiste @ 5/1.
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Anyone notice as the start of the debate Leo said he would not go into power with SF,
Later he said the reason he would not go into power with SF not because of there past but because of there promises,
Leo is saying in a round about way if they can agree policies in with SF he goes,
Leo is fragmenting the Sf transfers away from FF,and back to FG,
FG and SF done a very good job in stopping FF rising anymore in the poles and fragmenting there transfers,
How about FG/SF/LAB having enough votes to form a Government,
 
Last night an additional flyer from FG's Simon Coveney came through my letterbox. The letter had a golden harp on top with a picture of himself on the top left hand corner. He asked for our No. 1 Vote to ensure his re-election. Simon Coveney is guaranteed his re-election. He didn't mention his running mate Jerry Buttimer (8/1 at Paddy Power). I read into this that Buttimer is now jettisoned by FG. Therefore, I am now suggesting not to take Buttimer's chance seriously and I hope I'm wrong.
 
If I were the head of a party, I would give my top TDs instructions that their efforts to secure extra seats and to cooperate with other candidates would be big factors in the decision to give them a cabinet seat.

Brendan
 
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