Over half of those in arrears had positive equity as of June 2012

[Brendan Burgess]

Yvonne McCarthy of the Central Bank has published new data on this as of June 2012.

http://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&ved=0CFIQFjAE&url=http://www.ssisi.ie/SSISI_Paper_McCarthy.pdf&ei=Q0wDU5qBGaeP7AbZoYDAAg&usg=AFQjCNEB6FCJMI8CankYEK2668wAtjJjjQ&sig2=MdrfC89v36tFcMso0ktWjA&bvm=bv.61535280,d.ZGU

See Table 4 on Page 19 for current LTV of those in arrears:



She says on Page 8 " While 64% of performing borrowers have positive equity in their home, the corresponding figure among distressed borrowers is 57%"

While the totals in the table don't add up to 100%, she is quite clear that over half of those in arrears are in positive equiity.

I find this surprising.

 

[Delboy]

Well, that % will probably be higher now with the spike in house prices in some parts of the country over the past 2 years

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Interesting data on Page 103 of AIB's 2013 Accounts

Loan to value ratio of home loans

|all PDSs|>90 days arrears
Less than 80%|€10.6b|€985m
80% to 100%|€5.3b|€666m
100% to 150%|€10.9b|€2,176m
150%+|€3.9b|1,586m
Total|€30.7b|€5,395m

So 30% (958+666/5395) of the arrears book have positive equity.

The Central Bank says that 57% of the customers had positive equity.

To explain this, look at a simplified loan book

10 borrowers | €1m value of property|€500k mortgages
10 borrowers|€1m value of property| €2m mortgages

50% of the borrowers have positive equity
But only 20% of the loan book is in positive equity.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

ptsb's figures are similar to AIB's

30% of the mortgage book over 90 days in arrears has positive equity.