There was an academic from Northern Ireland on Morning Ireland just now.
He did this backward estimation.
7 people have died in Northern Ireland.
About 1 in 100 infected people die
It takes 17 days from infection to death.
So, 17 days ago, there were 700 people infected in Northern Ireland
The numbers infected double every 6 days.
So 11 days ago, there were 1400 infected
7 days ago, there were 2800
Today, there are 5,000 infected in Northern Ireland.
I think that the numbers are too small and the assumptions too big for the calculation to be reliable, but it's interesting.
Brendan
Based on these figures south of the border there could be 7,200 cases or approx 0.15% incidence amongst the general population. Sounds reasonable.